Profiting from flat racing

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This topic contains 48 replies, has 8 voices, and was last updated by Sassoon1990 Sassoon1990 5 months, 2 weeks ago.

Viewing 15 posts - 16 through 30 (of 49 total)
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  • #1342133
    Ben_Bernanke
    Ben_Bernanke
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    The jockey plays a big part for me when betting on big field handicaps, jockey always an important thing to look at but even more so in big field handicaps as it helps me assertsin which horses are there to win and which are there for a day out. When it comes to trainer form it pays dividends to get on a horse that you already like if if the trainer is in form – ginge taught me the importance of this a few years back – a lot of people see a trainers recent 5 runners coming 3rd, 5th, 4th, 6th and 3rd as pretty average to bad however if all these horses were big prices (say 20/1 or bigger) then it suggests they’re outperforming the expectations that the market had for them, in short pay strong attention to the prices of trainers recent runners when coming to a conclusion as to whether they’re in form or not. If a trainers had his last 5 runners all come 2nd or 3rd but all were evens shots then his next evens shot may not be as solid as first seems.

    #1342135
    Ben_Bernanke
    Ben_Bernanke
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    And a random point – I’ll always remember a trainer (think it was Gosden) saying something along the lines of “only good horses win at Sandown”, though this was a bit of an exaduration it certainly holds a good amount of weight as when there’s a close handicap or maiden or listed race then it often pays to side with the horse that has good recent form at Sandown even if it wasn’t a win. The track has a tight turn for home followed by a steep 4f uphill finish so you need to be a proper horse to see it out there – that is of course unless you’re racing against donkeys!

    #1342158

    nwalton
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    sorry for late reply Sassoon. I love the big handicaps as normally you get the price you were looking for (esp with the pushes, if you can get on), and you can normally find the odd on that time and again turn up for same race and run their race. Love the ascot h’caps as I am a big believer that horses there really do show their form time and time again, once they show a liking for ascot.(can apply to most tracks but feel ascot/Donny since the relay really is for course specialists)

    You are correct why I play in the better races, I do feel they tend to run far more consistently than those at the gaffs(many on here do really well at the gaffs, but its not for me)

    My day is broke up be getting up around six(always been early bird) just going through the news items then watching replay after replay. Then getting stuck into the races ahead(normally work about five days in advance, once decs are out) I normally have a rough idea of what horse I will back and what price I would want, obviously keeping an eye on the weather. Then its really getting settled down to watch ruk/atr or running around shops to get the bets on. So as you see in all fairness its quite a dull life,but with working only on high grade racing(flat only) I can get time off for my other passion(watching/attending and punting) on boxing.

    I don’t make fortunes and probably cold have made more staying in the stone mason trade, but I love the game of trying to beat the enemy
    There I am prattling on again, but like I said and others its really hard work and you never have this game sussed. Good luck mate

    #1342181
    Gingertipster
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    I don’t make fortunes and probably cold have made more staying in the stone mason trade, but I love the game of trying to beat the enemy

    Agreed, nwalton; had I stayed in the carpet fitting trade would’ve made more too.
    Trouble is only one or two of “the enemy” want to go in to battle with a known winner. 😉

    value is everything
    #1342182

    nwalton
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    have to walk many miles to get bets on now GT, sometimes even get on train and do the London shops,I am not talking thousands (probably want to get that amount on a horse/fighter 5/6 times a year)

    Cant get a tanner on online apart from betfair exchange

    Can really get frustrating but I plod (being the operative word) on

    #1342191
    Sassoon1990
    Sassoon1990
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    Alright chaps,

    Hope you’re having a good one! Great posts so thanks for the info. Ben, how important do you think jockeys are overall? And assume you’re referring to trainers putting up the better jockeys on their better horses for the big handicaps? Always find it ironic when the lesser jockey wins on the lesser fancied horse!

    nwlaton – cheers for the post, very informative. Your day sounds fun to me and something I aspire to do in future when the game is paying more and I have more saved from work. When you watch your replays do you tend to use Sporting Life and make a lot of notes etc?

    Ginge and nwalt, if you don’t mind me asking – how much were you making in your respective trades and how does that roughly compare to your year to year ‘salary’ now. Taking on and beating the bookies is definitely the aim and something we can do for definite when selective 😉

    All the best and get back to me when you can,

    Sass

    #1342198

    nwalton
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    • Total Posts 1422

    my son laughs at the notes I make, but when I started out FT in 1991 computers were things on james bond movies.

    I use all the sites mate and also keep a lot on the sky+ .

    I bet to points at £100 per point and hope to make a minimum 100 points per flat season, one top of that I have the bets that don’t go on the points system as they go off the 10pt max system.

    My average bet is probably around 3/4pts (£400) so as you I am not a massive punter, but I do have the occasional what I consider large bet 5/6 times a year as stated in last post

    #1342201
    Sassoon1990
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    nwalton, are the notes hilarious? Like ‘x ran up z’s arse’?? hahaha

    Which sites do you find best for replays mate? I’m only using Sporting Life at the minute but would love to expand my armory!

    Do you tend to hit your 100 point target walt and what’s the most you’ve been over it and under it for the flat season?

    :good: Cheers,

    Sassoon

    #1342202
    Nathan Hughes
    Nathan Hughes
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    bet365 replays are okay too Sassoon as they do both RUK and ATR

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #1342203

    nwalton
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    • Total Posts 1422

    lol Sassoon, no just normal stuff as if I think horse needed further/shorter, if the pace of the race was ok and where I would probably aim the horse next(not that I get that right to often)

    I tend to hit the 100,but like I say the bonus’s are the 5/6 big bets

    #1342204
    Sassoon1990
    Sassoon1990
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    • Total Posts 54

    Cheers Nath! How do you access the replays? I know that you can watch the races live if you’ve staked a small amount as a minimum but didn’t know you could watch past ones!

    Thanks,

    Sass

    #1342205
    Nathan Hughes
    Nathan Hughes
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    click on live streaming which is top right under username
    then hover not click on results & archive
    then click on horse racing archive
    you can type in a horses name or specific date on that too

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #1342206
    Sassoon1990
    Sassoon1990
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    • Total Posts 54

    How many points would you go for on the 5/6 big bets and what makes you come to that decision? Guess if you really fancy something and feel it can’t get beaten?

    Have you ever assessed all factors and felt that a horse was nailed on to win? And if so how did the beast in question get on? I’m finding some really good angles working with pace at the minute and sometimes things are jumping out from past races; but we all know that hindsight is a great thing. As usual, it’s a case of ruling horses out to start with and having 3 or 4 in mind that you think might fight it out

    #1342208
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
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    Ginge and nwalt, if you don’t mind me asking – how much were you making in your respective trades and how does that roughly compare to your year to year ‘salary’ now.

    Not going to say how much I was making carpet fitting or now investing in horses, Sassoon. Some years I make quite a bit more on the horses, some years considerably less. One year my “salary” was in the minus column! Although some carpet fitting years weren’t much better either – in the 90’s housing reccession my wages went down to a small fraction of what they were before or after. But generally I’d say on average am making around two thirds of what I would’ve made in my old profession. Would’ve had to give up completely if I had kids or not bought the house (before going “pro”) without a mortgage. Ex-pro’ Dave Nevison wrote in his book something like, “there are some professional gamblers making a millionaire’s wage and there are some on a lavatory cleaner’s wage”. 😉

    It’s not as glamorous as people think and there are negatives. Difficult to get credit, some car insurance companies don’t want to know you and for those that do it’s more expensive… and absolutely impossible to get a mortgage.

    value is everything
    #1342215
    Gingertipster
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    How many points would you go for on the 5/6 big bets and what makes you come to that decision? Guess if you really fancy something and feel it can’t get beaten?

    Have you ever assessed all factors and felt that a horse was nailed on to win? And if so how did the beast in question get on? I’m finding some really good angles working with pace at the minute and sometimes things are jumping out from past races; but we all know that hindsight is a great thing. As usual, it’s a case of ruling horses out to start with and having 3 or 4 in mind that you think might fight it out

    My own personal staking plan is:
    My idea of the horse’s chance in percentage terms…
    Minus the available odds in percentage terms…
    Times by 7 (or 6 if it’s a harder race to assess or slightly doubtful to take part ante-post)
    Plus My idea of the horse’s chance in percentage terms…

    So if I believe a horse has a 20% chance of winning (20% = a fair 4/1) and is available @ 6/1 (14.3%)…
    20 – 14.3 = 5.7
    5.7 X 7 = 39.9
    39.9 + 20 = 59.9
    So my stake is 60 points @ 6/1

    If the available price were only 5/1… 20 – 16.7 = 3.3, X 7 = 23.1 + 20 = 43.1. So Stake is 43 points @ 5/1.
    If the available price is 7/1 the stake works out @ 73 points @ 7/1.
    If 8/1 it’s 82 points.
    If 9/1 90 points.

    This way my staking depends both on how much chance I believe the horse has of winning and also how much value I believe is in the bet.
    What each point is worth depends how much I have in the bank.

    Personally have never thought a horse “nailed on”, although I don’t play at long odds-on anyway. Seldom rating a horse’s odds more than 10 percentage points better in my 100% book than the available odds.

    If you’re only good at finding the value at the short end of the market, then fair enough only back those at that end. But be careful ruling horses out, because the value at the shorter end of the market also depends on the amount of chance the bigger priced horses have and whether backing them or not need to be worked out. Personally, I don’t “rule out” any horse. Punters need to win just 1 out of 101 of their 100/1 bets to break even and need 50 of 100 Even Money bets to break even. So I’ll be backing a 100/1 shot that I think has just a 2% chance of winning and not backing an Even Money shot that I think has a 47% chance or a 1/2 shot I believe has a 65% chance. ie Even though a horse has a far greater chance of winning does not mean it is the best bet. Even in my opinion it’s highly unlikely the horse I believe has just a 2% chance will be “fighting it out”, but that doesn’t matter – it only needs to be over-priced to be worth a bet.

    value is everything
Viewing 15 posts - 16 through 30 (of 49 total)

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