Park Hill

Home Forums Big Races – Discussion Park Hill

This topic contains 21 replies, has 8 voices, and was last updated by Gingertipster Gingertipster 2 months ago.

Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 22 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #1317535
    thejudge1
    thejudge1
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2065

    Aljeezera

    I notice a lot of people on here seem to fancy Count Octave for the st leger, perhaps partly based on the Frankel angle and the way his progeny seem to just stay on

    Well if you fancy that horse surely this one must have a chance tomorrow. Not the quickest horse in the world but this will take some getting. Only concern for me is that she was withdrawn before on account of the ground being too soft, if the trainer does give the go ahead I reckon she’ll take all the beating. :good:

    #1317550

    greenasgrass
    Participant
    • Total Posts 609

    For my first bet of the meeting I’ve taken my “Flat racing for idiots” approach and looked at the ground, gone to the RP site and clicked on “Nathaniel progeny entries” and backed Melodic Motion for this and Nathalie in the last, with a double the pair.
    Good luck with Al Jazeera though, I love seeing the Frankels win.

    #1317551
    Middle_Of_March
    Middle_Of_March
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1015

    Natural Scenery for me at 9/2

    Backed him in the Ebor and he was ridiculously unlucky in running. Spent most of the last half mile looking for some room and yet still managed to fly home for a close third.

    I honestly believe he’s a top class stayer and think he wins this.

    As a side note, I would be annoyed is Sweet Selection won after backing him at Ascot in the gold cup and Goodwood in their equivalent at big prices both times each Way. On both occasion he ran on as I expected but never made the placings. He could go well down in class.

    But I’ll stick with the Godolphin horse.

    Natural Scenery @ 9/2

    #1317563
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 21907

    I’ve backed Melodic Motion 4.8/1 and Detailed 12/1, with a saver Natural Scenery 4.8/1.

    value is everything
    #1317566

    ham
    Participant
    • Total Posts 688

    Melodic motion for me

    #1317574
    stevecaution
    stevecaution
    Participant
    • Total Posts 7040

    I did Aljezeera each-way last time and the bet looked goosed as it looked likely she would be pulled up at one stage.

    The theory of her staying on over further is sound enough but I am concerned she will get out of her ground again and this field looks a good bit tougher. That last race looked at the mercy of Mori but the odds on Stoute horse was awful and the form of it since looks ropey.

    My instinct would be to place lay Aljezeera, I have a negative feeling about her.

    Melodic Motion looks the solid potential improver. Already very progressive she was the pick for me at 9/2. Dubka seems disappointing this season and I could see Beckett’s filly Fav at 7/2, with not too many negatives at all.

    Melodic Motion 9/2.

    What's all the fuss about Estimate on the Racing Legends Stamps?

    There's always been a second rate Mare on them anyway 😉

    #1317617
    CharlesOlney
    CharlesOlney
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1235

    Natural Scenery is a filly that has served me well so far this season without actually winning and it would be folly of me to abandon her now.

    It was a personal gutter of the season when she finished 3rd in the Ebor and it’ll be a long long time before I get over it.

    She’s my win bet at 4/1 with a saver on Melodic Motion at 5/1.

    #1317628
    thejudge1
    thejudge1
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2065

    sickening. so typical of my luck of late. looked the winner in the final furlong.

    aljeezera just a touch keen if anything and that cost her in final strides.

    #1317629
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 21907

    sickening. so typical of my luck of late. looked the winner in the final furlong.

    aljeezera just a touch keen if anything and that cost her in final strides.

    I think she gave it away, Judge; temperament.

    value is everything
    #1317630
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 21907

    I’ve backed Melodic Motion 4.8/1 and Detailed 12/1, with a saver Natural Scenery 4.8/1.

    My two did best of those held up in a slowly run race. Considered taking a big price about the winner because she was the most likely pace angle, just thought the going was against her. 😥

    value is everything
    #1317631
    thejudge1
    thejudge1
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2065

    I only backed one Ginger, Aljeezera. Was a good bet I backed her a few days ago at 7-1 NRNB. but it lost. A good bet and it lost. It ran well and probably traded at odds on in the final furlong but it still got beat. It shows how in this game you need luck above everything else.

    #1317632
    Middle_Of_March
    Middle_Of_March
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1015

    This is one of the problems with betting.. no matter how much you study the form, you just can’t do anything when a horse runs so poorly like Natural Scenery has.

    Unlucky to those of you on melodic motion btw who looked the winner from a long way out.

    #1317634
    thejudge1
    thejudge1
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2065

    Surely aljeezera backers were just as unlucky…

    #1317635
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 21907

    I only backed one Ginger, Aljeezera. Was a good bet I backed her a few days ago at 7-1 NRNB. but it lost. A good bet and it lost. It ran well and probably traded at odds on in the final furlong but it still got beat. It shows how in this game you need luck above everything else.

    Aljezeera showed previously that stamina is her strong suit and would be suited by the step up in trip, but on those runs she arguably also showed temperament and that was the reason I did not back her today. imo She’s difficult to win with and that’s what told in the end. So I don’t see that as “luck”.

    Equally, although am disappointed I didn’t get the winner and believe had the pace been faster either Melodic Motion or Detailed would’ve won. But it was evident beforehand pace was a very possible issue and yet chose not to back the probable pace setter. So only have myself to blame – not “luck” at all.

    If form analysis over time is good enough then a punter will show an overall profit; not “luck”.

    value is everything
    #1317638
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 21907

    This is one of the problems with betting.. no matter how much you study the form, you just can’t do anything when a horse runs so poorly like Natural Scenery has.

    Unlucky to those of you on melodic motion btw who looked the winner from a long way out.

    Natural Scenery was possibly the most inconvenienced by a slow pace, MOM. Just doesn’t have a change of gear and best in a truly run race. Reason why he was only a saver for me. Not that it did me any good. :whistle:

    value is everything
Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 22 total)

You must be logged in to reply to this topic.