Paddy Power Chase 2013

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  • #25261
    Venture to Cognac
    Venture to Cognac
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    A race that doesn’t really get the attention it deserves, always hugely competitive, and to be honest, a bit of a minefield, it’s still one I look forward to though. Splits the King George, and The Welsh National, and along with The Lexus, makes for 3 days of great racing.

    Not had that much joy in it, but in 2003, I told anyone who’d listen to get there dough on World Wide Web, and he duly romped home in this. Unfortunately I’d been telling everyone to bet him for The Welsh National :roll:

    It’s one of those races where those in the frame will immediately come into the Aintree Picture. Since 2001, however, only Majestic Concorde, and Colbert Station have won this, and went on to run in that seasons Grand National, with both falling. In that time, there’s also only been 4 placed horses go on to run at Aintree that season, so it may prove better to treat it as trial for Fairyhouse.

    Not surprisingly, the entries are littered with JP McManus, and Gigginstown runners.

    JP doesn’t have any near the head of the market, with Alfie Sherrin being the most popular of his, around the 14’s, 16’s mark. He’s twice failed to shine in this, falling 2 years ago and finishing unplaced last year. If he has a third go with him, I’d have to pay attention, but I see him more of a Welsh National horse, with a view to Cheltenham, and Aintree later in the season. Also failing to shine in this last year was Prince of Pirates. He had a satisfactory comeback at Cheltenham on Friday, though it didn’t scream the winner of this to me. Regardless, he’s a horse I’m keeping faith with, and I see him as a dark horse for Aintree. Reminds me of Don’t Push It in that he was highly regarded in his younger days, before going off the radar a bit. Time will tell. It’s hard to forget the win of Cause of Causes in last years Ladbroke Hurdle, and they’ve been chipping away quietly with him over fences, and you can be sure it’s with a big target in mind. At 25’s, I’m happy to take the chance that this is the plan. Sword Fish was a very impressive winner at Cork, before a whopping 15lb rise was his undoing at Fairyhouse next time. He still ran very well with the hike though, and he’s not dismissed. Jacksonslady has run some good races in defeat, before coming unstuck in The Kerry National. Her Galway Plate run gives her a chance though. Shot From The Hip is a likeable enough horse, but may just need to drop a couple of pounds to figure. I’ve never been convinced that Tom Horn appreciates a battle like this, and despite connections, I’d have to swerve for the timebeing, however, would take a close look at Jockey booking, should he run. JP also has Competitive Edge, In Great Form, and Please Talk entered, though surely they wouldn’t be his principal contenders………..I’m sure that statement won’t come back and bite me on the ass :D

    Gigginstown has half a dozen entered up, and you’ve got to go down to 20’s, to see their most fancied runner, Panther Claw. A horse who loves a good slog, I’ve had The Welsh National in mind for him for a long time, though, I feel they might just take up this option. Very happy with his comeback run, and I’d have to say this could be perfect for him. Ipsos Du Berlais is another of theirs I follow, and on a going day, he’s a serious contender, unfortunately though, he’s a bit of a monkey, and you’d just have to wait and see what kind of mood he’s in. Romanseco was definitely going the right way last season, and although disappointing in The Kerry National, and The Galway Plate, as the season progresses, I fully expect him to go close in one of the big handicaps. If this isn’t his day, wouldn’t stop me giving him some thought for Fairyhouse and Aintree. Make A Track is a bit of a dark horse, running some nice races recently, both in victory and defeat, against some nice sorts. Fourth in the Pertemps last year, he’s a nice price at 25’s. Also at 25’s is the intriguing Sword of Destiny. Obviously had his problems, having not been seen for a year, but he was difficult to ignore last season, as a novice, and if ready for this, he’s another who could make a mockery of the large odds. They’ve also got Sweeney Tunes entered, and his fourth in this years Irish National gives him a squeak, though you’d have to take into account four subsequent below par performances.

    Goonyella is joint favourite, and a horse I really like, though the signs are he’s heading for Chepstow, and the same could be applied to the promising Syndey Paget. Sharing favouritism with Goony is Home Farm. All the rage last week for The December Gold Cup, he eventually missed out due to a dirty scope. You’d have to assume that if over that mishap, he must be ready to run a big race.

    I had a couple of quid on Mad Brian last time in The Troytown, and he ran a blinder, just failing to edge out Cootamundra. He’s clearly in great form, and a serious player here, he remains a horse going the right way. He had Rockaboya, and Pass The Hat behind him that day, and though I’d favour Mad Brian again over those 2, you could argue that both those horses ran a perfectably acceptable trial for this. One to definitely take out of that race was Tony Martins Living Next Door. Full of running, and looking nailed on for a place when he fell at the last, you can be sure they’ll have a race like this in mind to make amends.

    Tony Martin also has Victrix Gale, Undertheboardwalk, Wrong Turn, and Sraid Padraig entered, and always advisable to keep a note of his runners. Undertheboardwalk is the one that’s caught the attention the most of his remainder, having had a nice prep run over hurdles at Cheltenham last month, running a nice enough race behind Home Run. Sraid Padraig beat Cause of Causes last time, and runs in the colours of Barry Connell, who’s runners also merit respect in these big handicaps. He’s also got Shinrock Paddy, and Glam Gerry entered, though they’d have to for the moment, be considered a bit disapponting. I wouldn’t totally discount Glam Gerry, and on his third behind Salut Flo at Cheltenham last year, he’s starting to slip down the weights, and may just be one of the better handicapped entries. This hasn’t gone unnoticed, and I thought he’d be bigger than the 16’s generally available, he’s as low as 12’s with Boylesports.

    Cross Appeal won this 2 years ago, but he’s went off the boil a bit, and I’d to leave him alone for now.

    Ruben Cotter is entered from the Paul Nicholls stable, and Lucinda Russell has Silver By Nature entered up. Ruben would have to be of interest if the trainer sent him for this, as he’s been known to raid a few of these Irish pots, and he ran a decent race at Newbury last time, against the very well handicapped Tatenen. SBN ran a blinder in Ireland in the spring, and had a very nice comeback run at Haydock. There’s clearly life in the old dog yet, and with Lucinda having Nuts and Bolts entered up for The Welsh National too, it’s not beyond the realms of possibility that he may swerve Chepstow for this.

    Hunting Party is another going the right way, and his owners The Lyreen Syndicate have a habit of getting their hands on some good horses. Hopefully he’ll have, like last time, assistance from Bryan Cooper in the saddle, and may be a horse we’ll be seeing a lot more of.

    Questions Answered is a very nice horse, and good to see him land his last couple of races, though he’s now been hammered for those, he’s sure to still run a solid enough race.

    Spring Heeled represents the same connections as the 2010 winner, Majestic Concorde, and has run some nice races in defeat, behind the likes of Alderwood, Double Seven, and Hidden Cyclone. Given connections, you could assume that the 20’s available ante-post would be a pretty solid investment.

    Daring Article might struggle to get in, as he’s way down the bottom, but if he did, would have the look of a well treated horse, having won 2 on the bounce.

    Another recent winner is My Murphy, and obviously another who would be well treated should he take his chance. Whether or not this would be too soon though is another thing. Certainly had a hard enough race on Saturday.

    Rich Revival was all the rage for The Irish National, having won 3 in a row, with the in-form Panther Claw behind him on one of those runs. He ultimately disappointed at Fairyhouse, pulling up, though worth noting he’s been given more than enough time to recover for this.

    Tarquinius ran a very nice race at Aintree, off the back of a good season, and was looking forward to seeing him this year, but his last run at Newcastle was very poor, appearing to show a bit of an attitude. I’m sure he’ll pop up again, but I’ll leave him alone for now.

    Clonabanan Lad has run some very nice races in defeat, and looks to have been highly tried. He’s been up against the likes of Champagne Fever, Jezki, Un De Sceaux, Morning Assembly, and Prince De Beauchene, and no disgrace to lose against the likes of those. This is much more like it, and probably my third choice in this, especially with 25’s with available. I’m mulling him over, along with…….

    Last Time D’Albain, who with one prep run under his belt, must have a serious chance based on his third in this last year, and his third to Triolo D’Alene at Aintree in The Topham. He’s still @ 40’s :shock:

    Heaney, and Fisher Bridge are 2 outsiders who are sure to run a race. Heaney has some nice runs to his names, and after a couple of wins, ran a sound enough race behind the exciting Double Seven last time. Fisher Bridge always seems to be trying, and though he’d have a lot to find on his last run behind Daring Article, no surprise to see him go well for a long way.

    The 2012 Irish National winner, Lion Na Bearnai seemed a bit out of sorts after that, running poorly in The Hennessy, and Scottish National. though the word was he was well fancied for Aintree, but the trainer couldn’t get him ready in time. He obviously had a few problems. Another who’s had a prep over hurdles, and certainly showed a bit more zest in that run.

    Your Busy ran a cracker to finish second behind Rebel Rebellion in The Grand Sefton, but think this may be just beyond him.

    Finally, always like to give a nod to a ‘rag’, and a quick mention for 50-1 shot Wellforth. Long time since he’s shown any worthwile form, but for a while he looked as if he’d be a staple in races like this, he showed a lot more for along way at Bangor last time, and he may be, albeit slowly, coming back to some kind of form.

    I’ve went for Cause of Causes, and Prince of Pirates at 25’s, but as mentioned, having a serious look at Last Time D’Albain, and Clonbanan Lad. Probably be wise to wait until tomorrows declarations are known.

    #462029
    thehorsesmouth
    thehorsesmouth
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    Fantastic post VTC, agree that Last Time D’Albain looks a massive price. He’s on my shortlist, along with Home Farm, Goonyella and Cause Of Causes.

    #462031
    Venture to Cognac
    Venture to Cognac
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    Thanks THM, though I’ve had to go in and correct about 20 odd spelling mistakes :mrgreen:

    Yeah the 40’s might just sway me on Last Time D’Albain, in the hope he stands his ground tomorrow. If he does, that price surely can’t last…..

    #462033
    thehorsesmouth
    thehorsesmouth
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    • Total Posts 5533

    It’s grand I only noticed about 10 of them :mrgreen:

    #462062
    thehorsesmouth
    thehorsesmouth
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    • Total Posts 5533

    Been looking at Cause Of Causes pedigree, didn’t realise he’s a half brother to Kris Kin.

    #462084

    Gdc1
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    • Total Posts 567

    Excellent post and great read :-)

    I like the look of Jim Cullotys Spring Heeled who looks to have been aimed at this race and has some good form in the book

    #462156
    Venture to Cognac
    Venture to Cognac
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    Cheers GDC.

    I’d definitely agree, if he’s over his run at Cheltehanm, which was a bit of a slog, then he’s bang there. I’d think 6 weeks should be enough to get him ready.

    I’m sitting waiting patiently on seeing who’s been withdrawn at todays declaration stage, I’ve been down this road before………

    **

    Last Time D’Albain not priced up with Paddy Power

    :cry:

    #462158
    thehorsesmouth
    thehorsesmouth
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    • Total Posts 5533

    (2:55) 343F Paddy Power S’chase (0-145) (Grade B)
    €106,800.00 ( 3m 100y – 5yo+ )[MAX 28]
    NHFrm
    0/-p4 1 Silver By Nature (GB)(145)
    (LRussell (in GB)) – . …. 11,10
    2 Sydney Paget(145) (DMcCain (in
    GB)) – . ……………………. 11,10
    -5133 3 Home Farm(142) (ALTMoore) – . …….. 11,07
    4p340 4 Sweeney Tunes (GB)(142) (PNolan)
    – . ……………………………. 11,07
    04132 5 Mad Brian(141) (MrsGCallaghan) – . .. 11,06
    21328 6 Spring Heeled(139) (JHCulloty) – . ….. 11,04
    1-930 7 Jacksonslady(138) (JPDempsey) – . .. 11,03
    21-22 8 Make A Track(138) (CFSwan) – . …….. 11,03
    110p7 9 Competitive Edge(136) (CO’Dwyer) –
    . ……………………………… 11,01
    3p125 10 Goonyella(136) (JTRDreaper) – . …….. 11,01
    71540 11 Shot From The Hip (GER)(136)
    (EJO’Grady) – ………….. 11,01
    1-11p 12 Rich Revival(135) (MissEDoyle) – . …. 11,00
    p7216 13 Ballinahow Lady(134) (DMO’Brien) –
    . ……………………………… 10,13
    5-861 14 Sraid Padraig(134) (AJMartin) – . ……. 10,13
    47233 15 Clonbanan Lad(133) (Hde
    Bromhead) – . …………… 10,12
    4-1p2 16 Ipsos Du Berlais (FR)(133)
    (NMeade) – . ……………. 10,12
    03372 17 Cause Of Causes (USA)(133)
    (GElliott) – . ……………… 10,11
    716/- 18 Popcorn (FR)(132) (WPMullins) – …… 10,11
    04f11 19 Questions Answered(132)
    (EMcNamara) – . ……… 10,11
    73f00 20 Romanesco (FR)(131) (GElliott) – . …. 10,10
    556f2 21 Canaly(130) (DTHughes) – . …………… 10,09
    4u115 22 Heaney(130) (TJTaaffe) – . …………….. 10,09
    31568 23 Panther Claw(129) (PNolan) – . ………. 10,08
    14600 24 Sumkindasuprstar(129) (JOClifford)
    – . …………………………… 10,08
    11321 25 Hunting Party(128) (DTHughes) – . … 10,07
    p357p 26 Sin Palo(128) (WPMullins) – . …………. 10,07
    33134 27 The Amarillo Kid(128) (WFCodd) – . . 10,07
    13950 28 Tom Horn(128) (NMeade) – . ………….. 10,07
    0-pp9 29 Cross Appeal(126) (NMeade) – ……… 10,05
    1-248 30 Undertheboardwalk(126) (AJMartin)
    – . …………………………… 10,05
    71344 31 Victrix Gale(126) (AJMartin) – . ………. 10,05
    1172- 32 Wellforth(126) (BBrennan (in GB)) – . 10,05
    42863 33 Churchfield Champ(125)
    (PJGilligan) – . …………. 10,04
    34162 34 Your Busy(125) (JANash) – . ………….. 10,04
    15846 35 Forty Foot Tom (GB)(124) (DMiley) –
    . …………………………….. 10,03
    u2044 36 Rockyaboya(124) (WPMullins) – . …… 10,03
    21336 37 Ballyfinboy(123) (JRFinn) – . ………….. 10,02
    1516p 38 Carrig Millie(123) (MCullen) – . ……….. 10,02
    54515 39 Sword Fish(123) (CRoche) – . ………… 10,02
    4531p 40 The Shepherd King(123) (TCooper)
    – . …………………………… 10,02
    -p13p 41 Tinakellylad(121) (MFMorris) – ………. 10,00
    p9156 42 Pass The Hat (GB)(120) (ALTMoore)
    – . ……………………………. 9,13
    1174f 43 Living Next Door(119) (AJMartin) – . .. 9,12
    -84pp 44 Please Talk(118) (NMeade) – . ………… 9,11
    -9511 45 Daring Article(117) (RTyner) – . ………. 9,10
    p0490 46 In Great Form(116) (FFlood) – . ……….. 9,09
    46713 47 King Vuvuzela(116) (PNolan) – . ……… 9,09
    p2423 48 Troll D’Oudairies (FR)(115)
    (MBrassil) – . …………….. 9,08
    761ff 49 Wrong Turn(107) (AJMartin) – . ……….. 9,00
    1p538 50 Pur Style (FR)(104) (EJO’Grady) – . …. 8,10

    Sorry VTC, no Last Time D’Albain unfortunately :?

    #462165
    Venture to Cognac
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 13488

    Shame THM, thought he had a great chance. Chucked over £30 at him, though a blessing that I didn’t get involved in Prince of Pirates other than a couple of quid.

    Still too many I like though. Should be happy with my 25’s on Cause of Causes, but need some back up :D

    Looking at Clonabanan Lad, Panther Claw, or Living Next Door……..and about a dozen others :mrgreen:

    Think I’ll wait till the final decs before placing anything else.

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