Out of Step

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This topic contains 15 replies, has 3 voices, and was last updated by  billion 2 months, 3 weeks ago.

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  • #1350784

    billion
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    The very best example I can find via the Odds Checker early markets is perhaps not the best but will do to kick this idea off.

    Exeter 4.20 LOUGH RYN @ 100/30 bet365 ————– LOST

    bet 365 is “out of step” with the remainder of the other layers. They stand alone at 100/30 and the prices go down hill for the favourite to the shortest at 9/4.

    Now, I don’t have accounts with them all and so I will be limited but I have always wondered if the odd one out has made a error or perhaps they know something the others don’t. Or just maybe they are trying to balance their book. Whatever, at the time of price checking I am about to see if it pays to take advantage.

    :bye: :bye: :bye:

    Not at a price I enjoy but perhaps worth noting DARK FORCE in the same race is as low as 8/1 whilst Marathon stand very much alone at 12/1.

    • This topic was modified 3 months ago by  billion.
    • This topic was modified 3 months ago by  billion.

    Billy Goat Grump

    #1350886

    billion
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    Not a good start and Wednesday will not improve matters because there is nothing in the early markets to catch my eye!

    :negative: :negative: :negative:

    Billy Goat Grump

    #1350925
    Venture to Cognac
    Venture to Cognac
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    Good luck Bill

    #1351068

    billion
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    I may need some good luck VtC because this is not quite going as planned. Most of the notable firms standing alone in the markets are mostly the non BOG offices, otherwise ones I do not hold accounts with and so it is not as easy as I first thought.

    Skybet are clearly out of line with MAKSAB 5.55 Newmarket at 9/4 for a Top 3 finish. . . 3rd @ 7/1

    The place markets were not what I had in mind but may prove my selection salvation but I will have to wait and see!

    :yes: :yes: :yes:

    Perhaps the answer when looking for bigger prices could be the “place” market?

    • This reply was modified 2 months, 4 weeks ago by  billion.

    Billy Goat Grump

    #1351172

    billion
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    Friday April 20

    Bath 4.40 MAYGOLD @ 11/2 bet365 CASHED OUT!

    bet365 stands very much alone at 11/2 when one other is as low as 7/2. I would have like to taken “place only” but it was not available, I guess you are damned if you do and damned if you don’t because if I had waited the price most likely would have gone.

    :bye: :bye: :bye:

    • This reply was modified 2 months, 4 weeks ago by  billion.

    Billy Goat Grump

    #1351198

    billion
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    I did say I would be damned if I did and damned if I don’t!

    For the very first time I took the CASH OUT option because I really think this could be a PLACE choice method and so have swapped by bet365 bet with a top 3 finish with Skybet.

    MAYGOLD Bath 4.40 Top 3 finish at 11/8 Skybet. ————————— LOST!

    :negative: :negative: :negative:

    • This reply was modified 2 months, 3 weeks ago by  billion.

    Billy Goat Grump

    #1351382

    billion
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    Saturday April 21

    I thought finding a pick today was out of the question until I went to the card at Wolverhampton.

    Wolv’s. 6.30 NEWSTEAD ABBEY at 15/2 with bet365 who are 1.5 & 2pts out of line with the remaining offices.

    I am forced into an e/w stake due to the lack of place only prices.

    LOST!!!!!!!!

    • This reply was modified 2 months, 3 weeks ago by  billion.
    • This reply was modified 2 months, 3 weeks ago by  billion.

    Billy Goat Grump

    #1351385
    Nathan Hughes
    Nathan Hughes
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    Hi Bill, you silly old fart
    good luck with this

    May I ask a question…?

    Is the place price out of step with other place prices or are you going via the out of step win price and then betting the place…?

    Jesus, think I’ve confused myself with that, where’s MrE when you need him….. :wacko:

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #1351403

    billion
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    A very good question Nathan and one not easy to answer.

    My starting point is the WIN market looking no further than the top 3 for the emboldened price at Odds-Checker.

    The time when this idea came to mind was a while back but I did nothing with it other than rubbing my hands together if it was in my favour.

    Times have changed a little since then and the Non BOG offices command the better prices and so finding the one “out of step” is no longer quite as easy.

    I was pleased to find NEWSTEAD ABBEY this morning and thought at 11/2 I would choose to bet for a place having already bet on SKY GYPSY but bet365 had not priced up for the “place” and so chose to stake e/w, which I hope in part answers your question. I think Skybet was the better top 3 finish but I have no idea if bet365 would have priced up better than Sky and this does leave a slightly complex problem of what to do.

    I would like to have gone for the “place” but may have to go with whatever is on offer at the time.

    If you have any ideas as to how to improve or develop my obscure thinking please make any suggestions, perhaps it is not really a system but I am very happy in this small corner of TRF.

    :bye: :bye: :bye:

    • This reply was modified 2 months, 3 weeks ago by  billion.

    Billy Goat Grump

    #1351406

    billion
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    As an after thought to your question Nathan it is my intention if when looking at the top 3/4 finish market it must be “out of step” before taking the price.

    I think!

    :scratch: :scratch: :scratch:

    Billy Goat Grump

    #1351460
    Nathan Hughes
    Nathan Hughes
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    I think the question I’m asking and I’m not always very good with words or explaining myself is
    on oddschecker you can view the win price and see that the win price is ‘out of step’
    is it possible to view and compare ‘place’ prices in the same way?
    Each Way at the bigger price you still get the out of step benefit but are you sure the place only price is out of step with the others, it possibly will be as you’d think the bigger win price will filter though but I’m not always sure it does with place only

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #1351545

    billion
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    Nathan, I don’t think the place price and the win price will each be the Stand Alone one.

    I have been checking the Top 3 or 4 finish of the Stand Alone office and most times there is not even a price shown, that is in the early markets and I am not one for betting close to the off. Maybe, just check the place ones and ignore the win (e/w).

    I have had to take a very early view tonight, Saturday for tomorrow because I will be going home.

    Wincanton 5.30 TIDAL FLOW at 13/8 to win with Wm. Hill.

    There were 2 x 11/10, plenty of 6/5 and 1 x 5/4 and only WH @ 13/8

    :wacko: :wacko: :wacko:

    Billy Goat Grump

    #1351572
    Nathan Hughes
    Nathan Hughes
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    It’s a decent idea I think bill, occasionally the other firms will drift out to the stand out but you’d imagine a lot more times the stand out will get backed in giving you a head start before the race

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #1351671

    billion
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    • Total Posts 4031

    Monday April 23

    Pontefract 2.40 Give it some Teddy e/w BetFred at 5/1

    Billy Goat Grump

    #1351673

    billion
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    • Total Posts 4031

    I found today’s selection at the very last minute but really wanted something in the place markets.

    I don’t think this idea is going to work out.

    :negative: :negative: :negative:

    Billy Goat Grump

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