NFL Season 2017/18

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This topic contains 28 replies, has 5 voices, and was last updated by stevecaution stevecaution 7 months, 2 weeks ago.

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  • #1316731

    darren83
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    OAKLAND RAIDERS 18/1

    There offense looks better with Marshawn Lynch at RB coming in the off season.And with Derek Carr back at QB With Khali Mack in defense to.Jared Cook a good signing to. can go all the way.Win the superbowl.

    GREEN BAY PACKERS 10/1

    With Aaron Rodgers 2nd best QB in league offense with Jordy Nelson who is ideal for Rodgers think can meet Raiders in superbowl.Defense looks ok to we know about how good they are on offense to.

    TENNESSEE TITANS 40/1

    They my darkhorse for season in Marcus Mariota they have a future star of the game.Think Derrick Henry do better at RB and Delanie Walker in for big season to.There defense improved with Logan Ryan a free agent from the Pats.While Kevin Byard at safety can do well to

    Any views guys and what your bets

    #1316814
    Middle_Of_March
    Middle_Of_March
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1984

    I bet on the spread every weeek.

    I do 7 selections and then trebles for 35 bets. And then the 7-fold just in case.

    I shall post my bet on here when I decide tomorrow before the patriots chiefs game.

    For what it’s worth, I’m a Falcons fan.

    No bet antepost on the NFL winner. Looks like any of 10 sides could win it.

    #1316843
    Venture to Cognac
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 13488

    I’ve kind of lost the run of the NFL the last couple of years, not paid enough attention to it, so I’ll keep it simple, and have The Cincinnati Bengals ew @ 66’s.

    #1317211
    stevecaution
    stevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8298

    I follow Washington but don’t back them for the Superbowl.

    I felt New England were lucky in the last 2 Superbowls and time will catch up with Brady eventually.

    I think Pittsburgh could be the most potent offence in the league if they stay healthy. They also have a soft looking schedule this season and should sleepwalk into the play offs.

    They were my main bet at 12/1 and I may look for a bigger odds selection after this weeks batch of games.

    Pittsburgh will hopefully make a winning start against Cleveland.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1317347
    Middle_Of_March
    Middle_Of_March
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1984

    I’ve taken the 20/1 on Kansas City

    I said elsewhere that whilst I wasn’t going to bet on the outright this year as it’s so open, Kansas would have been my bet if I had to do one. They then destroyed the Patriots on Thursday and I would be kicking myself if they won it after I said that.

    They’ve gone from 25s best price to 20s with just the one.. Skybet.

    #1317685
    stevecaution
    stevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8298

    When Kansas had a bad spell last season I had a punt on them at 100/1 for the Superbowl because they had such an easy schedule I expected them to make the playoffs. I also had a bet on them to win the division but Denver held on.

    Kansas made the play-offs but not for the first time Andy Reid was out-coached by Bill B for New England. The Chiefs got tied down to trying gadget plays and that is never sustainable. The only way to dominate is to control the line of scrimmage and maintain protection in the pocket for the quarterback. The best passers in the game struggle if they get pressured and time is the key.

    Occasionally a QB like Aaron Rodgers can create his own time through smart thinking, agility and accuracy of throw whilst on the run but most QBs need time to set their feet and find a target. Forget Brett Favre, Rodgers is miles better as a QB and will walk into the Hall Of Fame.

    Alex Smith has never been Aaron Rodgers class but the Patriots made him look that sort of quality last week. It seemed business as usual early on but it ended up that New England could not stop Alex Smith, as he went 28/35 and 4 touchdowns. Those are winning stats in all but the most crazy of contests. Out run as well as out passed, New England looked a disjointed outfit and this all happened with Kansas gifting them 139 yards on 15 penalties. Such indiscipline normally loses games and it’s a bad sign that a team cannot cash in on the other side’s mistakes.

    I wouldn’t back New England at 9/2 despite them having the softest schedule in the NFL this year. It’s amazing that a system which is supposed to ensure parity through penalising successful teams manages to hand the Superbowl Champions the easiest bunch of games in the entire NFL the following season. For example, they have the sappy looking New Orleans Saints coming on Sunday :unsure:

    Tonight’s game is tricky in a way, because both teams brought their own downfall through turnovers last week. Houston fumbled three times and lost all three and added an interception. They actually created more first downs than the Jaguars. The Bengals had 4 interceptions and a fumble in going scoreless, so they largely killed themselves.

    For me, interceptions are worse than fumbles and in Cincinnati’s mitigation is the fact that Baltimore are one of the better defences in the NFL. Sometimes interceptions are the result of chasing a game too hard, as the Bengals certainly were. I feel Houston were perhaps flattered by garbage time yards and downs and the Bengals did actually limit Joe Flacco to very little passing output.

    That in mind, I prefer the Bengals on the spread, giving 5.5 pts at 10/11 tonight. At home, they are going to play better and I think they can win by between 10pts and 14pts if they can stay error free.

    Anything coming from this single will be rolled onto 4 matches for Sunday and if I lose I will throw in another team for a fivefold.

    Leg 1 is Cincinnati Bengals -5.5 pts 10/11

    Good luck anyone betting.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1322987
    stevecaution
    stevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8298

    The season has been as unpredictable as ever so far and I haven’t been bothering with a spread accumulator.

    I backed Pittsburgh at 12/1 and they have done OK despite not getting the offence fired up. They had a poor show against the Bears before a disastrous five interception game against Jacksonville. They bounced back to end Kansas’ unbeaten run and the Chiefs followed up with a poor defensive show against a Raiders team who didn’t have a good start to the season.

    Anyway, I feel that a bet is worth trying this week.

    The LA Rams look an improved side this year and they have Todd Gurley performing well. Arizona have generally been below expectations so far and their offense is getting on in years. They scored plenty last week but the Buccaneers were woeful early in the game and were pretty feeble. The Rams will be much tougher and they are pick 1 on -2.5 pts and 10/11 odds.

    Aaron Rodgers broke his collarbone and is out for the season. That effectively kills off Green Bay in my opinion. Playing the Saints will be tough, as they can put up plenty points and without Rodgers it is hard to see Green Bay keeping pace in my opinion. I’ll take New Orleans -3 pts at 5/6 odds.

    Baltimore gave Joe Flacco a shed load of money after the Superbowl win but I have never rated him as an elite quarterback. He’s a gunslinger who looks great when it comes off but it is more likely that he’ll throw a pick and they are not a great team to my eyes. I think Minnesota are a more talented outfit and they can win what may be a low scoring affair. At home, I think the Vikings can dominate and win by a touchdown or more at 5/4 odds. The spread for those odds is -6.5

    Pittsburgh have yet to hit top form but a win over Cincinatti and a loss for the Ravens would leave the Steelers in a good divisional situation. I think they are better than the Bengals and can cover a 5pt spread concession. Even money is a decent price for a two field goal margin. The Steelers defence is playing well and if the Offense hits form as well they will be one of the most balanced teams in the NFL.

    Carolina are better than Chicago on both offense and defence stats. I reckon they can stifle the Bears and Cam Newton should do enough if he stays interception free. -3pts and odds of Evens complete the acca for this week.

    Summary:-

    LA Rams (-2.5) 10/11
    New Orleans (-3) 5/6
    Minnesota (-6.5) 5/4
    Pittsburgh (-5) 11/10
    Carolina (-3) 1/1

    £10 acca will pay £330.75 :yes:

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1323234
    stevecaution
    stevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8298

    Summary:-

    LA Rams (-2.5) 10/11
    New Orleans (-3) 5/6
    Minnesota (-6.5) 5/4
    Pittsburgh (-5) 11/10
    Carolina (-3) 1/1

    £10 acca will pay £330.75 :yes:

    Well, first bet of the season and Close but no cigar yet again.

    The Rams totally dominant 33-0 and The Steelers always in control, with the kicking of five field goals lessening a good performance that sees them take control of the division by leading and being 3-0 in divisional games.

    The Saints handed Green Bay an early 7 pt start but wore them down in the end, while the Vikings did enough to see of Baltimore and cover the spread.

    Carolina were simply useless against the Bears in a win that flatters the Chicago team. Carolina had 20 first downs to Chicago’s 5. The Panthers had way more production on offence in both running and passing, dominated time of possession, yet could not score and lost 17-3. It is about 100/1 that a team will do as little on offence as the Bears did and manage to win in what looked like they dominated.

    Cam Newton must take the blame with two interceptions gifting points to Chicago and a crazy second half where the teams combined to score ZERO points.

    A sickening loss that cost me a more than 30/1 acca which would cosily set me up for the rest of this season and well beyond it. I had toyed with the Cowboys instead as the fifth pick and am obviously kicking my own hips for not doing so.

    That was a dominant show by the Rams, who I out up at 40/1 for the Superbowl a few years ago, only to see Coach Fisher send them backwards. He’s a bit of a ringpiece by all accounts, once mocking his players by standing in the endzone with the football in training and pulling the piss about why they can’t get there themselves in a game. Anyhow, they are looking a bona fide ball club now.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1325357
    stevecaution
    stevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8298

    Only fancied one last week and that was Carolina to beat the Buccaneers. It looked a sure fire opportunity to bounce back and they did it comfortably in the end.

    This week I reckon the L A Rams are a good bet to beat a struggling Giants team. Two field goals or a touchdown margin will cover the spread and I expect the Rams to have enough balance and class to dominate the game and cover the 5.5 spread at 10/11.

    Jacksonville have a good defence and I think they can take the Bengals down in a game where the Cincinnati team are under a lot of pressure to stay in touch with Pittsburgh within the division. Jacksonville for me at 19/20 -5.5 pts.

    Philadelphia have just picked up running back Ajayi from Miami and they already owned the best record in football this year, Denver have a good defence but an awful offence. They are trying Osweiler tonight but is he rusty? The Eagles should dominate and -6.5 at 20/23 was good for me.

    The Saints -6.5 at 10/11 was my final pick. They seem sure to score points, where as Tampa Bay are struggling.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1325385
    stevecaution
    stevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8298

    Well that was easy:-

    Jacksonville won 23-7
    LA Rams won 51-17
    New Orleans won 30-10
    Phileadelphia won 51-23

    20 pt Fourfold paid 265.74 pts

    Season thus far, 11 picks 9 wins, 82% strike rate.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1325408
    Middle_Of_March
    Middle_Of_March
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1984

    Well that was easy:-

    Jacksonville won 23-7
    LA Rams won 51-17
    New Orleans won 30-10
    Phileadelphia won 51-23

    20 pt Fourfold paid 265.74 pts

    Season thus far, 11 picks 9 wins, 82% strike rate.

    Well played Steve

    After such a brilliant year last year for me on the NFL, it just isn’t happening this year.

    I keep getting into brilliany positions in the bet and then it collapses at the end for a loss.

    Think I’ll end my thread there now

    #1325872
    stevecaution
    stevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8298

    Well that was easy:-

    Jacksonville won 23-7
    LA Rams won 51-17
    New Orleans won 30-10
    Phileadelphia won 51-23

    20 pt Fourfold paid 265.74 pts

    Season thus far, 11 picks 9 wins, 82% strike rate.

    Well played Steve

    After such a brilliant year last year for me on the NFL, it just isn’t happening this year.

    I keep getting into brilliany positions in the bet and then it collapses at the end for a loss.

    Think I’ll end my thread there now

    Thanks MOM. The NFL is really tough to call these days. There seems to be a few shocks every week and it seems that every year we get to no unbeaten teams left earlier and earlier.

    I was going to include Detroit last week but backed out of it. I feel Green Bay’s season ended when Rogers went down and he is just so talented that the team is crippled without him. The plan was to oppose the Packers wherever possible and Detroit giving 2 pts seemed the call after their food offensive showing against Pittsburgh.

    I went empty on my accumulators last year, the Patriots of all people let me down for a fivefold and I had several 3 out of 4 in fourfolds. I just keep picking away and have played less this season. I tend not to go with more than 6.5 pts conceded because big leads can often fade away in “Garbage Time” with the leading teams happy to win by any margin.

    With all the injuries I tend to wait to make sure key players are going to start the game. I lost a few times on quarterbacks and key players going down to injuries and then having to start a lesser player in their place.

    I am probably looking at three or four teams at most this week.

    Keep having a go, I am sure that your luck will change in this unpredictable sport.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1326511
    stevecaution
    stevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8298

    This week’s selections

    Jacksonville -5 pts (Evens)
    New England -6.5 pts (5/6)
    Washington -1.5 pts (13/10)
    Chicago -2.5 pts (20/23)

    20 pts Fourfold

    Logic:-

    Jacksonville’s only defensive weakness is against the run and the Chargers have one of the worst run games in the NFL. The Jaguars are currently the most productive rushing team in the NFL.

    Denver has an awful offence and New England should comfortably win by seven to ten points.

    Washington are playing in a better division than the Vikings and can win at home at decent odds.

    Green Bay’s season effectively ended with Aaron Roger’s injury. The Bears have been owned by the Packers in the Rogers era but with him out and a weak running game the Bears can get back on track at home.

    20 pts Fourfold will return 315.33 pts

    Good luck.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1326973
    stevecaution
    stevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8298

    Nowhere near it this week. The Redskins turned the ball over too often and as a result they conceded far too many points. The are the worst run team in football, no success in 25 years.

    Chicago were feeble and could not take advantage of a severely weakened Green Bay. Coach John Fox must surely be on his way out sooner rather than later

    Jacksonville won but didn’t cover the spread. They nearly managed it in the end but not quite. It was odd to see the best running game in the league being pretty much abandoned, as Blake Bortles threw 51 passes instead. The two interceptions thrown meant that The Jaguars made heavier weather of it than they should have done.

    Thank goodness the Patriots saw off a feckless offensive in the Denver Broncos.

    This week looks a better one to call than last week’s and I will probably select a fivefold this week.

    Pittsburgh -3.5 at odds of 4/5 are the first pick in tonight’s game.

    The Steelers are 7 and 2 on the season and ahead in their division. This is pretty good considering the offence has not clicked yet. Hopefully they will peak in the playoffs.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1327015
    stevecaution
    stevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8298

    This week’s full list for the Fivefold is.

    Pittsburgh -3.5 pts (4/5)
    LA Rams -0.5 (11/8)
    Detroit -2.5 (5/6)
    New England -6 (10/11)
    Philadelphia -3.5 (10/11)

    10 pt Five fold

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

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