Neptune Novices

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This topic contains 166 replies, has 1 voice, and was last updated by  darren83 6 years, 9 months ago.

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  • #387551
    bozlike
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    Nicky Henderson has at last found a race with the right ground for Trozulon. I treid 6 different major bookmakers to get a decent ew bet at 50/1 on him for for this without luck and ended up having to go through another bookie to get the bets on with yet another bookie :roll:

    David Bass rides as BG is off to Ireland. He’s a late developer but has a touch of class and might just prove good enough to take his place in this race. It would appear this is where he will go if he turns out to be good enough and not the Supreme as was first thought.

    Be interesting to see what price he is on Monday which he should do easily if he has improved at all during his time off. Not the end of the world if he loses :o) Chin Up!!!

    Nicky Henderson does have a shocking record in this race though HGM.

    Boz
    @TomBoardman87

    #387557
    Zarkava
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    That won’t bother Fist. Henderson’s gonna win every race at the Festival according to him.

    #387558
    bozlike
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    That won’t bother Fist. Henderson’s gonna win every race at the Festival according to him.

    :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

    Boz
    @TomBoardman87

    #387572
    bozlike
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    Got to say, I still like Mount Benbulben for this, despite losing last time out. I’d like to see another run under him before the festival, and might be having some of the 25/1 before he does. Always looked like a top horse with masses of potential to me.

    Boz
    @TomBoardman87

    #387575
    Zarkava
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    Gordon Elliott – "The long-term plan is the three-miler at Cheltenham. Obviously good ground is an unknown for him, but I think he should be OK."

    #387576
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    Gordon Elliott – "The long-term plan is the three-miler at Cheltenham. Obviously good ground is an unknown for him, but I think he should be OK."

    Ah, I did see that as a potential sticking point, but thought he’d probably take the Neptune route.

    Thanks for the heads up though.

    Boz
    @TomBoardman87

    #387577
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    Gordon Elliott – "The long-term plan is the three-miler at Cheltenham. Obviously good ground is an unknown for him, but I think he should be OK."

    Ah, I did see that as a potential sticking point, but thought he’d probably take the Neptune route.

    Thanks for the heads up though.

    That would make tons of sense re-evaluating the prices now :roll:

    Boz
    @TomBoardman87

    #387617
    Hurdygurdyman
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    Nicky Henderson has at last found a race with the right ground for Trozulon. I treid 6 different major bookmakers to get a decent ew bet at 50/1 on him for for this without luck and ended up having to go through another bookie to get the bets on with yet another bookie :roll:

    David Bass rides as BG is off to Ireland. He’s a late developer but has a touch of class and might just prove good enough to take his place in this race. It would appear this is where he will go if he turns out to be good enough and not the Supreme as was first thought.

    Be interesting to see what price he is on Monday which he should do easily if he has improved at all during his time off. Not the end of the world if he loses :o) Chin Up!!!

    Nicky Henderson does have a shocking record in this race though HGM.

    Don’t care Nicky Henderson will win every race at the fesitval :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

    I’ve made plenty this season backing them at huge odds and laying them off again when they piss up.

    Only horses I care about are Sprinter Sacre and either Grandouet or Spirit Son beating Hurricane fly preferably the former. The rest could fall at the first for all I care as long as they don’t get hurt. Be nice if one or two did win as I still stand to win a bit more if they do but I can’t lose which is the important thing

    #387757
    Zarkava
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    Fist, was meant tongue-in-cheek ;)

    I’ve just been going through the trends I made 2 years ago for the Supreme, Neptune and RSA. The Supreme trends I made up – what a crock of $h!t€. Just terrible.

    The Neptune trends however have held up fairly well and the Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide 2011, bought from Weatherby’s and written by Paul Jones (@sportspunter1) has made for very interesting reading (again). Was rather annoyed that I hadn’t made a tentative selection for me to follow so had a good luck at the race and the trends.

    Well I’ve had a big look and my conclusion is that there about 25 contenders for it and you need your head tested if you’re thinking about having a heavy bet on anything. Fingal Bay will get beaten, but it’s just ridiculous how many prospects there are, and even how many unraced horses there are that trade at shortish prices.

    Broadback Bob is too old to win this but he has some incredible form. Look no further if he runs in the Albert Bartlett.

    Sous Le Cieux ticks an awful lot of boxes though. Trainer, form, race, sire.

    #387762
    Hurdygurdyman
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    Never been a big fan of the race and I think the only winner I backed may have been Mikael D’Haguenet and I’m not even sure about that.

    It’s a weird race, you’d expect it to farm top class 3 mile chasers in the future but you need to go back years to find one yet Istabraq Hardy Eustace and Danoli all brilliant 2 mile hurdlers have won it as have French Holly and Peddler’s Cross.

    I just look at the race and shrug and have no preconceived ideas about which of those entered is likely to win. To be honest it’s full of the name rings a bell horses to me.

    Must admit I was taken in by Sous Le Cieux but he took a real tanking last time and looked decidedly soft giving up way too easy for my liking.

    Haven’t even looked at Nicky’s Simonsig as I was told not to bother he would win nothing.

    Race is a non event to me unless this horse today turns out to be something special I wont be having another bet in the race as things stand.

    #387796
    Zarkava
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    Never been a big fan of the race and I think the only winner I backed may have been Mikael D’Haguenet and I’m not even sure about that.

    It’s a weird race, you’d expect it to farm top class 3 mile chasers in the future but you need to go back years to find one yet Istabraq Hardy Eustace and Danoli all brilliant 2 mile hurdlers have won it as have French Holly and Peddler’s Cross.

    I just look at the race and shrug and have no preconceived ideas about which of those entered is likely to win. To be honest it’s full of the name rings a bell horses to me.

    Must admit I was taken in by Sous Le Cieux but he took a real tanking last time and looked decidedly soft giving up way too easy for my liking.

    Haven’t even looked at Nicky’s Simonsig as I was told not to bother he would win nothing.

    Race is a non event to me unless this horse today turns out to be something special I wont be having another bet in the race as things stand.

    It’s strange that, Fist, because I also was amazed when I found that of the past 22 runnings, only 13 of the winners and runner-ups actually contested a chase at the Cheltenham Festival later on in their careers. Very strange race indeed.

    #387899
    MarkTT
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    Never been a big fan of the race and I think the only winner I backed may have been Mikael D’Haguenet and I’m not even sure about that.

    It’s a weird race, you’d expect it to farm top class 3 mile chasers in the future but you need to go back years to find one yet Istabraq Hardy Eustace and Danoli all brilliant 2 mile hurdlers have won it as have French Holly and Peddler’s Cross.

    I just look at the race and shrug and have no preconceived ideas about which of those entered is likely to win. To be honest it’s full of the name rings a bell horses to me.

    Must admit I was taken in by Sous Le Cieux but he took a real tanking last time and looked decidedly soft giving up way too easy for my liking.

    Haven’t even looked at Nicky’s Simonsig as I was told not to bother he would win nothing.

    Race is a non event to me unless this horse today turns out to be something special I wont be having another bet in the race as things stand.

    It’s strange that, Fist, because I also was amazed when I found that of the past 22 runnings, only 13 of the winners and runner-ups actually contested a chase at the Cheltenham Festival later on in their careers. Very strange race indeed.

    Honestly i backed Hardy Eustace each way when it won, and had Nicanor to beat Denman but both bets were on the day. I like the race, but finding an angle this far in advance…well i find it much harder than the other races.

    Also – why no 2 1/2 mile level weights race for older horses when there is one for novices ? All graded level weights races have corresponding novice and older horse events except this.

    Seems as though if you remain over hurdles after this race, you either step up or back in trip or drop into handicaps.

    #387903
    Zarkava
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    Yes it seems a little strange to me too. They’d have to extend the World Hurdle to Gold Cup distance and then bring in a hurdle over the Ryanair distance. Personally I’m all for it. Too many horses fall inbetween and they’ll either skip the Festival or be basically unseen in either the CH or the WH. I want to see the best horses running at the Festival over their best distances.

    #387909
    Hurdygurdyman
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    I’m not so sure we need a Grade 1 2m4f level weights hurdle.

    I don’t like the Ryanair I think it detracts from what the fesitival stands for.

    Desppite Imperial Commander winning it in general it attracts horses who simply aren’t good enough to win a QMCC or a Gold Cup. It will never have Champion Standing at the festival and neither would a 2m4f race over hurdles.

    I would imagine the main reason they don’t have one is the way horses are bred. They are either fast enough to win at 2m or they stay 3m

    Lets say we had a 2m4f race right now. Oscar Whisky would pull out of the World Hurdle and Hurricane Fly might just run in them both

    Not enough class horses to go round that’s why they stick to handicaps.

    #387911
    Zarkava
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    Well the Ryanair has taken a very long time to get established as a proper Grade 1. Fondmort beating Lacdoudal, Thisthatandtother beating Fondmort, Taranis beating Our Vic on a bad day and Billyvoddan. Yes, I agree, this is not top notch stuff.

    But the last 4 years have started to turn the race into a better race and this year we’re going to get the mother of competitive Grade 1s.

    Rubi Light, Kauto Stone, Riverside Theatre, Medermit, maybe Poquelin. These are very good horses who otherwise probably wouldn’t be seen at the Festival. They’d have to settle for getting taken off their feet, lumping top weights in 20-runner handicaps or not staying in the Gold Cup.

    And for horses like Albertas Run, Noble Prince, Great Endeavour who would all run at the Festival anyway, it’s a chance for them to be competitive rather than finishing out the back in the Gold Cup or Queen Mum.

    If we had a 2m 5f hurdle and the World Hurdle were run over 3m 2f, we’d probably have Oscar Whisky, Celestial Halo, Thousand Stars, So Young, Mikael d’Haguenet, Zaidpour, Brampour and Carlito Brigante all taking each other on.

    As it is, Celestial Halo probably won’t run at the Festival, Brampour will get taken off his feet in the Champion, So Young and Zaidpour might not turn up and Carlito Brigante would make bugger all impact in the World Hurdle.

    The 2m 4f hurdle at Aintree is just such a flat, sharp trip that it almost runs like 2m round Cheltenham anyway.

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