May 11, 2018 at 22:37 #1353640
Often considered the leading trial for the Oaks York’s Musidora is a group 3 contest for fillies but this season the race looks particularly weak.
O’Brien’s Magical briefly opened a short looking 6/4 Fav but she disappeared rapidly. That left a favourite that I felt showed how lacking in depth this year’s renewal was/is.
The new favourite was stablemate I Can Fly, who was fancied by some in the Guineas but I thought she was well short of the required form. I Can Fly crash landed at Newmarket, earning a RPR of just 82 and returning to the track so soon at a different trip sounded alarm bells for me. She has been pretty weak in the betting and it looks like we will soon have a new favourite.
The new market leader is shaping to be John Gosden’s Highgarden, who went into a few notebooks after her winning debut last season. After Enable last year, everything with the Gosden name beside it is going off short and it was a bit inevitable that Highgarden would be backed. The trouble I have is that Highgarden was beaten as odds-on favourite last time, only third to Crystal Hope, when the re-opposing Give And Take was runner up. Both fillies got a good old tanking from the Stoute filly and her fans will be hoping that they see a good show in the Musidora from her victims.
I don’t see value in Highgarden at 3/1, so with I Can Fly a non-starter for me at her odds, I am looking for an interest at value odds. Most of the fillies here need to improve and while they have scope as lightly raced types, none of them look to be coming from a decent enough platform to suggest they can score in this company.
With that in mind I am taking a chance with Lubinka. This daughter of Mastercraftsman didn’t manage to win at 2YO but was pitched in deep on her final run of three when behind Laurens in the Group 1 Fillies Mile at Newmarket. Returning in a more suitable Median Auction race at Lingfield she was a warm favourite and ran out a very easy winner with the minimum of fuss. Normally I would not look at her but that win proved she stays and her official rating of 100 is not far from what may be needed to win this weak looking trial.
Lubinka was entered in the Lingfield Oaks trial tomorrow but perhaps Peter Chapple-Hyam sees the chance to be competitive in a Group 3 at York which may actually be weaker. Despite having the sexier profile, Highgarden has 11 lbs to find with Lubinka on RPR’s, yet she is only a third of the odds at 3/1.
For me the Racing Post have got Lubinka’s last race rated wrongly. They only gave her 82 for that easy win, but the runner up came out and won and went from 72 to 86, a full stone higher than her run behind Lubinka. Lubinka won easily there and I feel she is nearer the 100 mark the official handicapper has and maybe just a little more still given the comfy success.
My feeling is that Lubinka is underrated and holds a better chance than odds of 9/1 suggest. For me she is the best value in the race and bubbles often burst at this time of the season.
Musidora Stakes Lubinka 9/1 is my pick I would say she is nearer 6/1 in my book.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.May 13, 2018 at 09:15 #1353804
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looks a below par race (as in no budding star in my eyes) will be at York for the meeting, lets hope I am wrong and we see a decent performance from one of these fillies.
Good luck with Lubinka steve, if I had to play I would probably have a few shillings ew,if 5s on day Give And Take, trying to give Stouties filly 6lb may prove to have been a hard task once the season wears onMay 13, 2018 at 20:17 #1353867
Cheers N, I’ll need a ton of luck the way it’s going. 😥
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.May 13, 2018 at 20:46 #1353873
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Gosden’s record in this is pretty good and has had the past 3 winners in Shutter Speed, So Mi Dar and Star of Seville, a 2 year blank before that and a couple of winners in The Fugue and Joviality making it 5 winners in 7 years.
It’s clear he likes the race and tends to send his best ones. I thought Lah Ti Dar might have been aimed here but she went to Newmarket instead. Highgarden was beat at odds on a couple of weeks back but Johnny G’s horses can need the run 1st time out and Highgarden was keen enough.
I’m happy to part with a couple of nuggets with Gosdens record in the race and the expected improvement from Highgarden. I considered a slightly bigger bet but think she’ll be better at 12f looking at the pedigreeDon't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*nMay 13, 2018 at 21:06 #1353875
Highgarden should do better this time Nathan but she needs to I feel. Trainer record is strong but I doubt he’s sending his best filly this time.
Highgarden was conceding 6 lbs to Crystal Hope and that may have been a tough ask when we consider it in retrospect. Just beaten a bit further than I would have liked and also couldn’t beat the Haggas filly from level weights. Give And Take would have gotten a more favourable review from me if she had only one start last year but she took three goes to break her duck and only progressed 8 lbs on RPRs from 79 to 87 across the three starts.
Of course horses can see a big change from 2 to 3 but the new RPR of 91 for Give And Take is only up 4 from her best last season and doesn’t suggest a big leap yet. All things considered, the Stoute filly looks the one open to bigger improvement with time.
Highgarden has a solid enough chance but was too tight for me. It just looks a bit open for a surprise result perhaps.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.May 15, 2018 at 10:22 #1353942
I’ve taken a punt on Simcock’s Ejtyah in this.
By Frankel, she has only ran once and won…she ran liked she would appreciate a step up in trip, with Spencer giving her a few pushes a long the way, but she won cosily enough. Form-wise the race hasn’t really worked out, with the 3rd and 4th doing useless since, but they were 4Ls or so back. The second hasn’t ran since, but had had a debut before this race. She has now moved to France, and its probably unclear what that tells us, probably being related to FR horses, they will search for some black type over there.
The trainer said this about Ejtyah
It was a bonus that she won a mile maiden at two, having shown very little until November. She’s from a stout middle-distance family and can only improve. She’ll get 1m2f, maybe 1m4f, and although we don’t quite know where we are, we think she’s quite decent.
Interestingly for me, Teppal won on Sunday and whilst its hard to know the quality of her win there, it’s clear Simcock will have a line on his fillies, to a degree. Obviously that can’t be taken as gospel as plenty of variables come into play.
She’s 11s with paddys whilst best 9s with skybet, and the rest shorter…..i’ve taken paddys and it’ll be interesting to see if she’s supported.
It’s really hard to know if any at the front of the market are future stars, so it’s worth a punt in my book.
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!May 15, 2018 at 15:53 #1353952
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Sorry to tell you Steve but I too am on Lubinka.
This doesn’t look the strongest Musidora to me and PCH could have a good un again which would be nice to see!!May 16, 2018 at 00:29 #1353965
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As you say Raymo not the strongest Musidora tomorrow considering it’s supposed to throw us a clue to a possible Oaks winner and initially I liked the look of Gosdens Highgarden but having watched her last race I was a bit underwhelmed by her performance running on to be 3rd after being caught flat footed, she was odds on favourite that day and for me it was a disappointing run…
Ceilidh’s Dream looks much more like the winner here. Slowly away in both her starts the hood has certainly helped and she came from last to first at Newmarket last time out pulling out all the stops to peg back the leader and win in nice style. I love her action once she gets into gear and if she gets a good start tomorrow she will take all the catching and she could provide a nice double for Harry Bentley tomorrow.
Good luck with your picks.
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...May 16, 2018 at 05:07 #1353968
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I took 3/1 Highgarden and 7/4 Harry’s Angel on the two big races earlier in the week with Skybet.
Good luck allMay 16, 2018 at 10:05 #1353985
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Took Lubinka @ 6/1
A 150/1 outsider when she won an excellent sixth in the Group One Fillies’ Mile at Newmarket last season – form which has been franked in the 1000 Guineas – she was only beaten by horses that have gone on to prove themselves very useful at three, such as Nell Gwyn Stakes winner Soliloquy and Dark Rose Angel, whose form has received several big boosts since, so she must be pretty good.
An easy-as-you-like warm-up victory on the all-weather earlier this year suggested she’d trained on and she appears to hold strong claims for this Group Three.
If she was outpaced in the Fillies’ Mile at Newmarket last season she might be seen to better effect over further, and her breeding is very much in the middle distance category.May 16, 2018 at 10:17 #1353987
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I was tempted on Lubinka but PCH said he would like to see rain as he pulled her from the Lingfield trial because the ground was too lively. No rain as far as I can tell, maybe some light drizzle this morning.
He also said this trip might be a bit sharp for her. Ejtyah also missed an engagement because of fast ground.
I was interested in Ceilidhs Dream yesterday but she was too short for a race like this on the form she has shown. Now at 7/2 I think she’s well worth a crack. Ralph Beckett thinks the ground will be right up her street and the hood that Jac mentioned is now taken off as she was almost ‘too relaxed’ last time out.
He doesn’t think she’ll get 12f but might get a supplementary entry in the Oaks if she really impresses. Shutter Speed won this last year and Gosden used it as a trial for the French version so maybe Mr. Beckett is thinking among the same lines.
It’s a tricky little event although uninspiring overall on known form but who knows, we could have a special one in there somewhere.
Ceilidh’s Dream 7/2May 16, 2018 at 11:31 #1354002
2 bets i’ve had:
3.30- Sir Dancealot- 15/2- potential to be a surprise here. He’s always been a decent horse without being HA standard. He get’s some weight, and has had a prep- HA can be buzzy on reappearance, and i’d be happy to take him all for small money.
4.05 Ejtyah- as above. 11/1
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!May 16, 2018 at 14:48 #1354016
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If the hood made Ceilidh’s Dream too relaxed last time out what’s she going to do with it off today ..7/2 seems a fair price and she looked fit last time out so can only improve on that.
Looking forward to this race..come on Ceilidh’s. Good luck Chivers
Sir Dancelot was the pick of the paddock at Newmarket Guineas Meeting he looked amazing and could spring the surprise your hoping for.
I’ve had a bit on too so will be cheering him home this afternoon. If he does win he’ll ruin my Harry Angel/Ceilidh’s Dream Double but it will be a saver for me if Harry Angel needs the race.
Best of luck
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...May 16, 2018 at 15:10 #1354019
That’s good to hear, hopefully he comes on for it and does spring a surprise. I envisage he might catch HA late on…fingers crossed!
Good money around for my other bet too. 9/2 and 4/1 now…hopefully the money is genuine Simcock yard money with a line through their 1000G winner on Sunday, and not just mugs like myself
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!May 16, 2018 at 16:41 #1354020
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Didn’t look the greatest Musidora did it…?
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