Kingwell Hurdle 2018

Home Forums Big Races – Discussion Kingwell Hurdle 2018

This topic contains 38 replies, has 15 voices, and was last updated by steeplechasing steeplechasing 7 months ago.

Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 39 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #1341973
    stevecaution
    stevecaution
    Participant
    • Total Posts 8298

    Paddy Power seem on their own with Nicky Henderson’s Call Me Lord in the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton on Saturday.

    While the rest of the firms are 6/5 and 5/4 on the upwardly mobile 5YO, Paddy Power go 9/4 and have ChTibello as their 13/8 Fav.

    ChTibello is 9/4 and 2/1 in plenty of places, while Elgin varies wildly from 7/2 out to 6/1, with Misterton not doing much for his form in the Betfair Hurdle.

    Call Me Lord is 3 lb behind ChTibello on RPR and 3 lb ahead of Elgin on the same rankings. He’s not actually 5yo until April and surely has scope. He has a Champion Hurdle entry and a really good win here would surely see him a lively enough outsider in a weak year. ChTibello didn’t win any war medals letting The New One get back up last time and Paddy’s 13/8 looks too skinny for me.

    Go on Paddy, I’ll bite.

    Call Me Lord 9/4

    I’ll pop a rare max bet on here.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1341995
    jackh1092
    jackh1092
    Participant
    • Total Posts 814

    Call Me Lord is the unexposed one in the race and probably has that unknown factor with him, could he be a 160+ horse who knows (probably not for me based on his campaign). The form of his 2 wins albeit easy wins, is ordinary to say the least. Probably why PP are taking a view on him. He’s been mixing it against middle of the road handicappers so far whereas CH’tibello has the form in the book. It’s not stellar form, but no 2mile form really is.

    I would have Ch’tibello a clear fav in this like paddypower!

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1341996

    ham
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1717

    Call me lord for me, taken some of the 9/4 yesterday.

    Chitibello had his last chance for me LTO ill be disappointed if the hendo horse isnt upto this

    #1341998
    TheGun
    TheGun
    Participant
    • Total Posts 184

    I think PP have got this wrong and have followed you in, Steve. I’d imagine their price will shorten later in the week.

    Cliffs of Dover is a horse I’ve been waiting to return for ages now, and who I’ve backed for both the County and Champion Hurdles. However, I would be highly doubtful that he will show up for the Kingwell as the ground will almost certainly be heavy or thereabouts. With this horse clearly wanting good ground, I wonder if Nicholls is going to run out of time to find him a prep race before the Fez.

    #1342006
    Nathan Hughes
    Nathan Hughes
    Participant
    • Total Posts 19306

    Paddy have squared up 9/4, 7/4, 6/4 and now 1/1
    Like TheGun I also like Cliffs of Dover but this looks a bit tough of a return after being off 400+ days.
    Flying Tiger was just over 4 lengths defeated in the Fighting Fifth albeit Buveur D’air could of put more daylight between himself and those in behind if he really wanted to but at 14’s I think Flying Tiger is a decent price if turning up.

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #1342015
    steeplechasing
    steeplechasing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5293

    Ch’Tibello looks to have a much easier task at Kelso on Thursday

    Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference. https://lazybet.com/

    #1342022
    BigG
    BigG
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4461

    I think, and I know I’ve rambled on about this before, that Ch’tibello hasn’t really
    had the credit for (imo) his very solid form. I get where you are coming from Ham with
    his run last time out, TNO may not be quite the horse he was a couple of years ago, but
    he’s not a horse you want to give a target to in the last 1/2f, he’s as tough as they
    come. He’s entered at Kelso on Thursday, but I don’t think he’ll turn this down. I clocked
    on oddschecker that Boylesports went 3/1, but I missed that my minutes. I reckon they would
    have been knocked over in the rush to grab some of that, they quickly shortened him to 2/1.
    I not really too interested about having a bet here, I’m just hoping he runs a really good
    race and he keeps his place in the Champion Hurdle, I took him e/w at very decent odds a while
    back. I’m not kidding myself that he would beat an in form Buveur D’Air, but at present there
    are 8 horses between him and BD in the betting, and at least half of those won’t be heading
    there. He’s still 25/1 with the big bookies, and 33s with a couple that I don’t use, if he does
    well here I doubt he’ll be that after the race.

    Apologies for turning this into a bit of a Champion Hurdle thread, so it’s Ch’tibello for me
    although no bet. I’ll settle for a very decent run :good:

    #1342028
    BigG
    BigG
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4461

    As a rider to the above, Dan Skelton was interviewed last week and said
    that the Kingwell was the plan, but as as the Champion Hurdle was, Buveur
    D’Air aside, a wide open race he didn’t wan’t to “leave our race behind
    in the mud at Wincanton”. I see he’s sneaked back out to 3/1 with Paddy
    Power now. If he runs that’s value, but I’m having my doubts now if he
    will show up at all before the festival

    #1342033
    stevecaution
    stevecaution
    Participant
    • Total Posts 8298

    Call Me Lord did only win a handicap last time but he carried 11 st 12 lbs that day, to the runner-up on 9 st 13 lbs.

    The race can be seen here:-

    http://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/video/20180106/2746721/16445060

    Despite the top weight to carry Call Me Lord travels well and pretty much has it in control from two out. I think it was a smart performance, and if The New One was the horse toting the weight and winning in that manner, it seems safe to assume that denim trousers would be getting covered with concentrated milk product.

    Worryingly for ChTibello fans would be not only Paddy Power replacing him with Call Me Lord as favourite, they also pushed him right out to best in the market at a whopping looking 3/1 from the original 13/8.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1342036

    ham
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1717

    Probably because they think hes running on thursday steve, if he were to run on sat he will be closer to 13/8 than 3/1

    #1342039
    jackh1092
    jackh1092
    Participant
    • Total Posts 814

    On The New One comment Steve, no harm, but he would give a horse like Our Merlin a beating too. He’s never a flashy type, so it might not have been on the bridle. The race Call Me Lord won is bad so i find him hard to read, and thus, if Chtibello turned up i think he’s the better bet at the prices.

    The horse back in 4th is probably the 2nd best horse in the race on ability, she hates bad ground, and had a wind op soon after….what does that tell me about the form? I will await further proof before piling into a horse like Call Me Lord at those prices..

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1342048
    stevecaution
    stevecaution
    Participant
    • Total Posts 8298

    Probably because they think hes running on thursday steve, if he were to run on sat he will be closer to 13/8 than 3/1

    I would imagine they have taken money at 9/4 on Call Me Lord and are keen to take some money on ChTibello now. They probably didn’t take a cent at 13/8 and if he doesn’t run now they could have it a bit lop-sided come Saturday.

    Nicky Henderson took Call Me Lord out of the Betfair Hurdle because he would have had to carry top weight and decided the Kingwell was a better option. Call Me Lord will only go to the Champion Hurdle if something happens to Buveur D’air.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1342059
    LostSoldier3
    LostSoldier3
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1739

    Ch’tibello’s owner tweeted that his horse is odds-against to run at Wincanton. Paddy Power didn’t notice – hence the disparity in prices.

    No standout views taken by PP’s compilers here – they just priced it straight and wrongly thought both horses were likely runners.

    #1342065
    BigG
    BigG
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4461

    Thanks for that LS, and to be fair to Dan Skelton, he did indicate last week that Ch’tibello
    could head straight to the Champion Hurdle. If he didn’t want to leave his chance in the
    Champion Hurdle behind in the mud at Wincanton, I can’t see him wanting to chance Kelso
    on Thursday when it’s soft at the moment and a good deal of rain is due tomorrow. I don’t
    think the the extra 2 furlong there is what he needs either. I’m quite happy he heads straight
    to the festival, fingers crossed they don’t have another disaster like last year where he was
    pulled out on the day of the race with puss in a foot :wacko:

    #1342082
    LostSoldier3
    LostSoldier3
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1739

    Yeah, Ian Marmion says Kelso is very unlikely for his horse too. He says it’s a 20/1 chance he’ll run there and 11/10 he runs at Wincanton.

    Thoughts and prayers with Stevecaution’s Paddy Power account – perfectly innocent opinions-based bet but I’ve got a bad feeling they’re going to come down on you with the restriction hammer in the circumstances. šŸ™

    • This reply was modified 7 months, 1 week ago by LostSoldier3 LostSoldier3.
Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 39 total)

You must be logged in to reply to this topic.