JLT Novices Chase 2017

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This topic contains 93 replies, has 33 voices, and was last updated by  Tibbsburge 3 months, 2 weeks ago.

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  • #1327531
    Voleur
    Voleur
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    As I’ve said over on the RSA post, I think Monalee could end up going here and have backed him at 25/1 accordingly.

    Another I like is Rathvinden for Willie Mullins. He hasn’t had a typical prep, but he hasn’t had a typical career either having been plagued by injuries and coming into his novice campaign as a 9 year old. He’s had a busy season already this fella, but Mullins was able to win the Albert Bartlett with Penhill last year who had a similarly busy start to the season. It would be a great training performance to get this guy to win a Grade 1 at the festival after all his problems.

    There’s no denying his class though, he was rated 151 as a novice hurdler, finishing third to Faugheen in the Neptune. He’s racked up some decent chasing form this season, largely over the intermediate trip of 2m4f, beating the likes of Potter’s Point, Peregrine Run, Townshend and Don’t Touch It. I’ve taken the 33/1 on him for this and I’ve requested Betfair to add him to the exchange market.

    Monalee 25/1
    Rathvinden 33/1

    #1327532

    greenasgrass
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    • Total Posts 1193

    I like Rathvinden too and followed him a bit over the summer- agree he beat some smart horses and goes on most ground which is a plus.

    #1327765

    ham
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    • Total Posts 1549

    Have added bamako moriviere for this at 25/1, he slammed jury duty and woodland opera who both came out and won yesterday and both where quite impressive

    Jury duty 16/1 for this and bamako 25/1, worth adding him in id say

    #1327772

    greenasgrass
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    I like Bamako Moriviere too but think he hammered WO so far as that horse doesn’t stay too far on soft; and Jury Duty by dint of experience. Don’t know how much improvement is left in BM but that is a nice price alright.

    #1331432
    Vautour
    Vautour
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    What did everyone make of Invitation Only yesterday? Any Second Now is a decent marker and it puts him on a similar mark to Monalees first outing.

    • This reply was modified 7 months, 1 week ago by Vautour Vautour.
    #1331440

    ham
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    Dont think he would cope with monalee, although monalee seems to be more likely for the rsa according to the markets

    And i think willoughby would be far too strong for IO

    #1331514
    Middle_Of_March
    Middle_Of_March
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    • Total Posts 1845

    Have added bamako moriviere for this at 25/1

    Hadn’t seen this thread. He’s been 20/1 for months to win any race with hills. I really like him and his form, as you say, works out very well. He seems very overlooked by lots of people though for some reason.

    He’s in my 10 To Follow and is one of my biggest Cheltenham antepost bets at that price. 20/1 to win any race is just huge.

    #1334348
    Zamorston
    Zamorston
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    Thinking of having a speculative go on Barters Hill for this…available at 40/1…

    Think I read somewhere he’s due back out in January? Not seen anything on plans going forward but reckon this could be his ideal race?

    Doesn’t look to be packed out with potential stars to me…

    The year he went for the Albert Bartlett I remember Ben Pauling questioning his own decision and saying the Neptune was another race they were looking at…on reflection when he stepped up to three miles at Donny it was probably his least impressive victory making hard work of it…

    Maybe it was his style of running that made everyone think he was a plodder and the further he went the better? He’s beat some quality horses at two to two and a half miles though…Altior, Buveur Dair, Politologue, North Hill Harvey to name a few!

    It’s a big leap of faith with the injury and problems etc…but if BP can get him back to something like he was I fancy he could go well in this…if they went for it!

    #1334393
    thehorsesmouth
    thehorsesmouth
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    I think you’re right in looking for something left field Zamorston, looking at the market the race looks ripe for something to come out of the woodwork.

    Al Boum Photo is interesting for me. He looked to have the race at his mercy when tipping up yesterday, and Tycoon Prince, who he beat by a comfortable and expanding seven lengths over 2m at Navan, easily won a decent beginners’ at Leopardstown today.

    Al Boum Photo’s only real disappointment came on decent ground at Punchestown which is a worry but he wouldn’t be the first horse to disappoint at the festival there. At 25/1 I thought he was worth an interest prior to yesterday’s race, and with Death Duty disappointing and he himself running impressively until coming down, am surprised those odds are still available.

    #1334407
    jackh1092
    jackh1092
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    Thehorsesmouth, i’d agree Al Boum Photo is a horse i really rate, was gutted to see him tip up yesterday.

    On Barters Hill i thought they said they were going handicap hurdling??

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1336472
    Vautour
    Vautour
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    • Total Posts 430

    Death Duty ruled out

    #1336504
    Voleur
    Voleur
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    • Total Posts 658

    Al Boum Photo is one I have an interest in too. I have him in a couple of Yankees at bigger prices, but I’m considering making him my main bet at 16/1. I don’t rate the Willoughby Court/Yanworth form very highly, but I expect WC to reverse the placings at Cheltenham regardless.

    Must be hard for even his staunchest supporters to have much faith in Finians Oscar, I couldn’t touch him at the prices. Sutton Place is one I’ve been considering after his return to action but he is probably RSA bound.

    #1336563

    Jasolong
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    Finians Oscar is a going to be a big bet for me wherever he goes. JLT or RSA. He’s just too classy. First 2 chase starts we’re seriosuly good over the right distance. Happy to forgive him his 2 mile chase run. And then giving benetar 5 pounds and getting beat a photo when jumping badly that day was a good run. Will surely be even better than that. Really like him

    #1336571

    ham
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    Really like finians but id be a touch concerned he couldnt give benatar 5lbs and beat him, ill be surprised if hes as good as first thought now, hes actually been dropped 2lbs after benetar beat him, which is deserved, but worrying that he may very well be a mid 150 horse at best now, he hasnt shown any progression in his last two starts, 2m5 should have been plenty enough LTO to beat that field.

    Not to mention connections were bullish 2m would be fine and he really got done,then they suddenly say he needs 3m not 2m, then rush to run him over 2m5…theirs an essence of trying to grasp onto this superstar status he once had, not sure what he will do at 3m? Rsa is his best chance, ill be disappointed if willoughby court couldnt beat him round cheltenham in the JLT but theyv already stated rsa is FO likely target, will the extra distance in the rsa find 5-7lbs of improvement, maybe? Not so sure myself now.

    #1336580

    atthepost
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    • Total Posts 139

    Have taken 10s EW on Petit Mouchior NRNB with bet365.

    With Death Dutys recent set back, previous comments earlier in the season by connections and him potentially getting beat by Footpad in February. I could easily see PM stepping up in trip.

    Have also backed PM at 7s EW 1/4 odds NRNB for the Arkle.

    Good luck all

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