April 18, 2018 at 13:23 #1350954
Newmarket 1.50, Ekhtiyaar 9-2, 100 points win BOG.
IMO, a group horse in a handicap. He owes me nothing from last year, a horse going places. 9-2 is very fair. If he shows the improvement I think he will from 3-4, he’ll blow this lot away. 2-2 on the track, on yesterdays evidence, he’s very well drawn today.
Newmarket 2.25, Nebo 5-1, 100 points win BOG. 20 point R/F/C Nebo & Rufus King @ 58.59 & 63.84.
The only two horses to post RPR’s at, or above their ratings. Hills stable is flying, Johnston stable in form too. I fancy Nebo to win, getting the better of the Johnston horse.
Cheltenham 2.40, Kalondra 6-1, 100 points win BOG.
Great winning form with Coo Star Sivola, last time out well backed, against two of the best novices around over fences, on ground he hated. Rated 147 over hurdles, this horse has much scope for improvement over fences off 145 today (a comment that does not apply to most of this field). I love the stable, who provide a wealth of value winners. He’s going to love a bit of better ground today too.
Scottish National Daklondike 19-1 (16’s boosted by Lads) 30 points win.
Put this on last weekend, but I’m fearing now the ground maybe drying out a bit to much.April 18, 2018 at 13:46 #1350959
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Good luck with the thread NauseredApril 18, 2018 at 14:01 #1350961
Thanks Botchy. Not the best of starts, but he ran well, just blew up in the last furlong.
Onwards and upwards. It’s probably a bad time to start this thread for me… I’ve been in white hot form over the past two weeks or so, right up till yesterday. Let’s hope it continues on here.
Thanks again.April 18, 2018 at 15:05 #1350971
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Good luck with the thread. It always seems the kiss of death on your form when you start a thread. I always get off to a terrible start every year and this year has been no different.
It’s always good to see people having a crack on DLAP.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.April 18, 2018 at 22:08 #1351024
Thanks Steve, much appreciated. Bad day today, Kalondra ran well, and is blatantly very well handicapped over fences. Onwards and upwards.
Tomorrow I have backed (all bet365).
Newmarket 2.25, Military Band 5-1 & Newmarket 3.00 Le Brivido 11/4. 20 point win double BOG.
Newmarket 1.50 Music Society 5/2 & Newmarket 3.00 Le Brivado 11/4. 20 point win double BOG.
All three at same prices BOG, 10 point win treble.
I’d been waiting for Military Band to run backend last year after hearing a good word for him. He never came out, and now he shows up in a very hot maiden indeed. Le Brivado looks a good thing to me, he’s definitely not short of speed, and a class above most of these. If he drifts past 3-1, I will back him in a single too.April 19, 2018 at 01:28 #1351051
Venture to CognacModerator
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Good luck NauseredApril 19, 2018 at 06:38 #1351056
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good luck nausered, always good to read people’s viewsApril 19, 2018 at 10:02 #1351063
Thank you VTC & Nwalton.
I talked myself into backing Le Brivado in a single late last night.
New 3.00, Le Brivado 5/2 200 points win. BOG.
I don’t really like backing singles at less than 3-1 under normal circumstances, but I feel this horse warrants it. I mean, what price would this horse be if it was trained by Johnny G or Aiden? It would be evens, or a shade of odds on most likely. A Jersey winner, beaten a whisker in a classic after just four starts. It’s still trained by a master, but we always seem to underplay the French! I read a comment from Fabre last night, that he would be more worried about 1M, than about 6F for Le Brivado. That will do for me, this might be a sighter for the July Cup? Coolmore just bought in… They really do not need another miler stallion to be fair… But they are constantly looking for new speed. I could see this horse being campaigned with a 6f programme this season, if things go well today. The fact he was stepped back from 1M to 7F after being beaten in the French 2000, and Fabre’s comments regarding a mile for this horse, I’d say the trainer fancies he is more a sprinter. The 7f programme is not the best. If he does not quite stay a Mile, it maybe 6f.April 19, 2018 at 10:08 #1351065
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love this horse (le Brivido). On your point that he will go sprinting, I am not so sure as if you look, what have coolmore got in terms of older milers? Could well be wrong (maybe because I have voucher for Queen Anne lol)April 19, 2018 at 10:23 #1351066
I think a lot depends for your Queen Anne bet how he runs today personally mate. Fabre is not normally one for flippant comments. If he puts up a really impressive performance today, I could see him maybe July Cup bound, via the Diamond Jubilee.
I maybe totally wrong though 😉
Edit, I found the quote that I read last night Nwalton.
“I’m happy with his work and he’s done enough for a first race of the year,” said his trainer Andre Fabre.
“He’s doing well, any ground will suit him and he’s going to run a good race. He has some speed and I’d be more concerned by a mile than by six furlongs.”April 20, 2018 at 10:45 #1351207
-620 points. Daklondike non runner SN.
Another terrible day yesterday, the less said the better.
Not a lot today really. I backed Oliver Reed second run last year, and thought he would do better and make a nicer three year old, so I could not let him go unbacked on his seasonal appearance.
Cour De Lion Newbury 4.05 9-2 & Oliver Reed Newbury 2.25 15-2.
25 point e/w double BOGApril 20, 2018 at 12:04 #1351214
Newbury Spring Cup, Contrapposto 25-1, 30 points e/w.
Scottish National, Vincente 10-1 (lads boost). 50 points win.
If you watch Contrapposto’s previous runs, mainly in in the Convivial at York, and then last years Craven, his running style screams big field handicap with a fast pace to me. 99 is a lofty handicap debut, but if you consider he’s run close to horses rated much higher now in Rivet (115), Benbatl (123) Eminent (116), and had horses rated 110 & 113 behind him in that Craven… 99 has a touch of scope on it. Off since being well beaten by Periman, when he did not stay 1m2f in the Dante (But still moved well through the race). A fast run mile, is going to suit him down to the ground.
25-1 is to big IMO, and I can see him running very well here as long as all is well. A year off has hopefully done him the power of good. (His best run/RPR came first time out as a 3yo after a break).April 20, 2018 at 12:58 #1351217
Added an e/w double…
Newbury Spring Cup Contrapposto 25-1 & Scottish National Vicente 9-1, 20 point e/w double BOG.April 21, 2018 at 09:33 #1351388
Cashed out for full money my single on Contrapposto @ 25-1 with Bet365.
Added Contapposto 30 points e/w 40-1 Lads BOG.April 21, 2018 at 11:34 #1351429
2.20 Ayr, Dingo Dollar 13-2, 100 points win BOG Bet365.
2.55 Ayr, Verdana Blue 11-2, 50 points win BOG Bet365.
Scottish National Fagan 10-1 30 points win BOG Bet356 last night.
Newbury Spring Cup Leader Writer 12-1 20 points win BOG Bet365 last night.
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