Irish Dominance


Home Forums Horse Racing Irish Dominance

This topic contains 65 replies, has 25 voices, and was last updated by GoldenMiller34 GoldenMiller34 4 days, 9 hours ago.

Viewing 6 posts - 61 through 66 (of 66 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #1293554
    Nathan Hughes
    Nathan Hughes
    Participant
    • Total Posts 15694

    I think it’s a bit naive to go reading too deep into form of lower rated horses on a run of the mill midweek mickey mouse races in the build up to Cheltenham. You know more than me about it and it’s your choice to do so, that is up to you.

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n

    #1293564
    GoldenMiller34
    GoldenMiller34
    Participant
    • Total Posts 315

    The thread is veering like Might Bite, however, it is extremely rarely that I rule out a horse purely based upon stableform. I use the RP last 14 days stats, there has to be a sufficient number of runners to constitute enough evidence, no winners, and all of them running about double digit lengths below form/beaten many lengths. I have been burned too many times so always give every benefit of doubt – Tizzard & Longsdon looked completely out of form but had Fox Norton & Pendra respectively. Same with second or third quick runs, I err heavily on the side that the horse will, incredibly, reproduce its form once again (e.g. Mysteree yesterday).

    #1293642
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 20746

    The thread is veering like Might Bite, however, it is extremely rarely that I rule out a horse purely based upon stableform. I use the RP last 14 days stats, there has to be a sufficient number of runners to constitute enough evidence, no winners, and all of them running about double digit lengths below form/beaten many lengths. I have been burned too many times so always give every benefit of doubt – Tizzard & Longsdon looked completely out of form but had Fox Norton & Pendra respectively. Same with second or third quick runs, I err heavily on the side that the horse will, incredibly, reproduce its form once again (e.g. Mysteree yesterday).

    Agree GM, it would be wrong to “rule out a horse purely based upon stableform”. No different to any other aspect of form that affects what price am willing to take. eg There might be a question mark on trip or going that might (and only might) stop a horse from running to its best.

    Agree, “there must be a “sufficient number of runners to constitute enough evidence”. However, do believe that a lot of the time punters can improve reliability of stableform by not treating every trainer the same. If a trainer has not had many horses running to form over 12 days… And then fires in 10 horses running to form (not necessarily winning) in two (or even 1) day/s – a punter can miss out in finding a “trainer in form” because the earlier poor form falsely keeps the reading down. Conversely, any similar period of excellent form at the start of those 14 days before a poorish 12 days, can falsely keep the reading up. Sometimes the Racing Post’s 14 days time zone will be the correct, sometimes should be just a day, sometimes 7 days and sometimes (for one with fewer runners) 21 days and any other time zone in between. imo Subjectivity helps.

    Sorry this thred has gone off track.

    value is everything
    #1293654
    GoldenMiller34
    GoldenMiller34
    Participant
    • Total Posts 315

    The thread is veering like Might Bite, however, it is extremely rarely that I rule out a horse purely based upon stableform. I use the RP last 14 days stats, there has to be a sufficient number of runners to constitute enough evidence, no winners, and all of them running about double digit lengths below form/beaten many lengths. I have been burned too many times so always give every benefit of doubt – Tizzard & Longsdon looked completely out of form but had Fox Norton & Pendra respectively. Same with second or third quick runs, I err heavily on the side that the horse will, incredibly, reproduce its form once again (e.g. Mysteree yesterday).

    Agree GM, it would be wrong to “rule out a horse purely based upon stableform”. No different to any other aspect of form that affects what price am willing to take. eg There might be a question mark on trip or going that might (and only might) stop a horse from running to its best.

    Agree, “there must be a “sufficient number of runners to constitute enough evidence”. However, do believe that a lot of the time punters can improve reliability of stableform by not treating every trainer the same. If a trainer has not had many horses running to form over 12 days… And then fires in 10 horses running to form (not necessarily winning) in two (or even 1) day/s – a punter can miss out in finding a “trainer in form” because the earlier poor form falsely keeps the reading down. Conversely, any similar period of excellent form at the start of those 14 days before a poorish 12 days, can falsely keep the reading up. Sometimes the Racing Post’s 14 days time zone will be the correct, sometimes should be just a day, sometimes 7 days and sometimes (for one with fewer runners) 21 days and any other time zone in between. imo Subjectivity helps.

    Sorry this thred has gone off track.

    No need to apologise Ginger, I love it when we go off at a tangent. Yes, I agree with you. The more recent the form within the 14 days the more it is relevant. In fact it would be more helpful were the RP to just show the last 30 runners for a trainer whether they are over 5 days or 5 weeks.

    #1293675
    stevecaution
    stevecaution
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5760

    There is another possible reason.

    Three Irish yards all suddenly hit exceptional form all at the same time and couldn’t have timed it better.
    Irish water/turf must have more minerals in mid March. :lol:

    Sorry Ginge, but the top British yards like Nicholls, King, Jonjo (I never thought too much of him), Pipe, Hobbs and so on seem train and buy horses like they did ten years ago. Can’t imagine how no superstar horse has been bought by British owners or trainers in the past 4-5 years. Everything decent from France goes to Ireland first. The only British exception is Nicky Henderson who can win 2m G1 hurdles and 3m G1 chases.
    The Nicholls form has regressed from year to year. The past couple of years he had horses that could win at least a handicap at the Festival, this year it was only the Foxhunters with horses that used to be rated 20 lbs higher.
    Tizzard, extremely overrated, doesn’t know what he is talking about. After yesterday’s GC his son Joe still thought that Cue Card wasn’t beaten when he fell. What race was he watching???

    I rarely back Nicholls’ runners. To my eyes they are never value. He surely had his glory days but I’ve seen a few of his deteriorate instead of going forward. Rocky Creek was a decent young chaser who damn near won a Grand National but he went down the pan at an alarming rate.

    In very recent times I found myself what the hell he was doing with promising Novice Hurdler Capitaine, who tried to make all in a hurdle race but got very tired at the finish. What does Nicholls do? He runs him seven days later over 2f further on bottomless ground. What happens? The Horse gets pulled up. What good has that done to a young horse?

    I thought that was idiotic training. Maybe his mind isn’t on it with all he has on his plate divorcing his THIRD wife, after finding love with a woman 18 years younger than him. Can’t be easy with the social whirl of those racy, racing types.

    Goreisking pushes his luck just once too often with the FAV pish in his local bookies.

    #1293691
    GoldenMiller34
    GoldenMiller34
    Participant
    • Total Posts 315

    Going back to my post that opened this thread and reading today’s story on the RP website it’s clear that HRI is so hell bent on having winners at big festivals that their initiatives are sending many smaller Irish yards to the wall which is very sad but could also be dangerous in the long term, given the fickle nature of high powered owners, because HRI is destroying the grassroots foundation that underpins their racing.

Viewing 6 posts - 61 through 66 (of 66 total)

You must be logged in to reply to this topic.