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Are you for real ginge…..?
The attention to detail and training regime for those running at Cheltenham is going to be completely different to those running at Wexford in the 1 bob claiming race
Do Mullins and Elliott have any horses running in Wexford 1 bob claiming races, Nathan?
Value Is EverythingAny race other than those at Cheltenham in the build up is the same equivalent.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Mark, I rarely bet outside of big races so am not commenting on matters with the same experience you bring to it. I stick to big races, almost always Saturday ones where I can be close to certain everything is trying. I give more credence to trainers turning out winners rather than those whose horses are running to form, so, strictly speaking, you are correct – important races alone shouldn’t decide form.
But your assertion that some trainers go from poor to exceptional at a stroke surely makes a mockery of trainer form at a festival? Yards do not do that, as you know. Trainers going from freezing to red hot with nothing in between are very rare.
Festival handicap runners – particularly Irish ones by the look of things – get a long term target and are trained for it. What they do between the setting of that target and the big day ought to be discounted as any kind of form, including trainer form. Rock The World a classic example if you check back: Best fresh? Yes. Best on good ground? Yes. Festival experience? Yes. Track experience (over fences)? Yes.
I’ll be ignoring trainer form at future festivals unless there is plain evidence – a yard winning races on Tuesday/Wednesday or having fancied horses run really badly. Having said all that, I rarely have a serious bet in a handicap at the festival, an exception this time being one who seemed exceptionally well treated – Singlefarmpayment.
Are you for real ginge…..?
The attention to detail and training regime for those running at Cheltenham is going to be completely different to those running at Wexford in the 1 bob claiming race
Do Mullins and Elliott have any horses running in Wexford 1 bob claiming races, Nathan?
Mullins and Elliot both had a number of horses running in Wexford and down royal on Friday. Both had winners
Are you for real ginge…..?
The attention to detail and training regime for those running at Cheltenham is going to be completely different to those running at Wexford in the 1 bob claiming race
Are you suggesting Irish trainers are not trying in less important races?
If owners are paying the same fees for a lesser animal as they are for another owner’s Grade 1 winner; I see no reason why both horses should not treated with the same “detail”. If trainers do not do so, then they are not going to win as many races as they should… Mullins and Elliott do very well with lesser horses too.
Value Is EverythingRock The World a classic example if you check back: Best fresh? Yes. Best on good ground? Yes. Festival experience? Yes. Track experience (over fences)? Yes.
Or a wind op doing the trick. 😉
Value Is EverythingBut your assertion that some trainers go from poor to exceptional at a stroke surely makes a mockery of trainer form at a festival? Yards do not do that, as you know. Trainers going from freezing to red hot with nothing in between are very rare.
Hence the concern, it’s not so rare with Irish trainers. Although there is one British based trainer I’ve found that quite often performs the same trick.
Value Is EverythingThe horses at Cheltenham some more than others are having the whole season as a warm up to the big event when naturally the trainer will want them to peak at their best, best form, best runs are normally in the best races not the preps
Blackbeard to conquer the World
The horses at Cheltenham some more than others are having the whole season as a warm up to the big event when naturally the trainer will want them to peak at their best, best form, best runs are normally in the best races not the preps
So now you’re saying trainers are not trying their best to win Grade 1 races at all other times of the year.
Again, Mullins and Elliott seem to do well enough in those races. Preps don’t come in to it.Value Is EverythingI think it’s a bit naive to go reading too deep into form of lower rated horses on a run of the mill midweek mickey mouse races in the build up to Cheltenham. You know more than me about it and it’s your choice to do so, that is up to you.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
The thread is veering like Might Bite, however, it is extremely rarely that I rule out a horse purely based upon stableform. I use the RP last 14 days stats, there has to be a sufficient number of runners to constitute enough evidence, no winners, and all of them running about double digit lengths below form/beaten many lengths. I have been burned too many times so always give every benefit of doubt – Tizzard & Longsdon looked completely out of form but had Fox Norton & Pendra respectively. Same with second or third quick runs, I err heavily on the side that the horse will, incredibly, reproduce its form once again (e.g. Mysteree yesterday).
The thread is veering like Might Bite, however, it is extremely rarely that I rule out a horse purely based upon stableform. I use the RP last 14 days stats, there has to be a sufficient number of runners to constitute enough evidence, no winners, and all of them running about double digit lengths below form/beaten many lengths. I have been burned too many times so always give every benefit of doubt – Tizzard & Longsdon looked completely out of form but had Fox Norton & Pendra respectively. Same with second or third quick runs, I err heavily on the side that the horse will, incredibly, reproduce its form once again (e.g. Mysteree yesterday).
Agree GM, it would be wrong to “rule out a horse purely based upon stableform”. No different to any other aspect of form that affects what price am willing to take. eg There might be a question mark on trip or going that might (and only might) stop a horse from running to its best.
Agree, “there must be a “sufficient number of runners to constitute enough evidence”. However, do believe that a lot of the time punters can improve reliability of stableform by not treating every trainer the same. If a trainer has not had many horses running to form over 12 days… And then fires in 10 horses running to form (not necessarily winning) in two (or even 1) day/s – a punter can miss out in finding a “trainer in form” because the earlier poor form falsely keeps the reading down. Conversely, any similar period of excellent form at the start of those 14 days before a poorish 12 days, can falsely keep the reading up. Sometimes the Racing Post’s 14 days time zone will be the correct, sometimes should be just a day, sometimes 7 days and sometimes (for one with fewer runners) 21 days and any other time zone in between. imo Subjectivity helps.
Sorry this thred has gone off track.
Value Is EverythingThe thread is veering like Might Bite, however, it is extremely rarely that I rule out a horse purely based upon stableform. I use the RP last 14 days stats, there has to be a sufficient number of runners to constitute enough evidence, no winners, and all of them running about double digit lengths below form/beaten many lengths. I have been burned too many times so always give every benefit of doubt – Tizzard & Longsdon looked completely out of form but had Fox Norton & Pendra respectively. Same with second or third quick runs, I err heavily on the side that the horse will, incredibly, reproduce its form once again (e.g. Mysteree yesterday).
Agree GM, it would be wrong to “rule out a horse purely based upon stableform”. No different to any other aspect of form that affects what price am willing to take. eg There might be a question mark on trip or going that might (and only might) stop a horse from running to its best.
Agree, “there must be a “sufficient number of runners to constitute enough evidence”. However, do believe that a lot of the time punters can improve reliability of stableform by not treating every trainer the same. If a trainer has not had many horses running to form over 12 days… And then fires in 10 horses running to form (not necessarily winning) in two (or even 1) day/s – a punter can miss out in finding a “trainer in form” because the earlier poor form falsely keeps the reading down. Conversely, any similar period of excellent form at the start of those 14 days before a poorish 12 days, can falsely keep the reading up. Sometimes the Racing Post’s 14 days time zone will be the correct, sometimes should be just a day, sometimes 7 days and sometimes (for one with fewer runners) 21 days and any other time zone in between. imo Subjectivity helps.
Sorry this thred has gone off track.
No need to apologise Ginger, I love it when we go off at a tangent. Yes, I agree with you. The more recent the form within the 14 days the more it is relevant. In fact it would be more helpful were the RP to just show the last 30 runners for a trainer whether they are over 5 days or 5 weeks.
There is another possible reason.
Three Irish yards all suddenly hit exceptional form all at the same time and couldn’t have timed it better.
Irish water/turf must have more minerals in mid March.
Sorry Ginge, but the top British yards like Nicholls, King, Jonjo (I never thought too much of him), Pipe, Hobbs and so on seem train and buy horses like they did ten years ago. Can’t imagine how no superstar horse has been bought by British owners or trainers in the past 4-5 years. Everything decent from France goes to Ireland first. The only British exception is Nicky Henderson who can win 2m G1 hurdles and 3m G1 chases.
The Nicholls form has regressed from year to year. The past couple of years he had horses that could win at least a handicap at the Festival, this year it was only the Foxhunters with horses that used to be rated 20 lbs higher.
Tizzard, extremely overrated, doesn’t know what he is talking about. After yesterday’s GC his son Joe still thought that Cue Card wasn’t beaten when he fell. What race was he watching???I rarely back Nicholls’ runners. To my eyes they are never value. He surely had his glory days but I’ve seen a few of his deteriorate instead of going forward. Rocky Creek was a decent young chaser who damn near won a Grand National but he went down the pan at an alarming rate.
In very recent times I found myself what the hell he was doing with promising Novice Hurdler Capitaine, who tried to make all in a hurdle race but got very tired at the finish. What does Nicholls do? He runs him seven days later over 2f further on bottomless ground. What happens? The Horse gets pulled up. What good has that done to a young horse?
I thought that was idiotic training. Maybe his mind isn’t on it with all he has on his plate divorcing his THIRD wife, after finding love with a woman 18 years younger than him. Can’t be easy with the social whirl of those racy, racing types.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Going back to my post that opened this thread and reading today’s story on the RP website it’s clear that HRI is so hell bent on having winners at big festivals that their initiatives are sending many smaller Irish yards to the wall which is very sad but could also be dangerous in the long term, given the fickle nature of high powered owners, because HRI is destroying the grassroots foundation that underpins their racing.
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