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This early market will be going through the shredder before the 26th of May, we can fairly confidently rule out 6 of the top 9 in the betting already.
Gustav probably ran below form at Newmarket, but at 9/4 there is definitely a question as to whether he is a proper Group 1 performer or not.
There could be some juice in Verbal Dexterity at 6/1. A good winner of the National Stakes at two, and Bolger blames himself for running the horse back to soon in the RP Trophy after a dirty scope that ruled him out the Dewhurst. He was far from disgraced however, and the form of that race couldn’t have worked out much better. He is in a race against time to be fit, but taking the early price could be worth the risk.
Likewise there could some each way juice in Imaging’s price at 12/1. He runs today, but the market vibes are far from confident, and if he fails to beat this lot he can wave goodbye to any Group 1 aspirations. London Icon could spring a surprise today at Naas.
In the 1000 Guineas, Clemmie 5/2 is the obvious pick, and if she makes it to the race would represent terrific value. Aidan sounded optimistic that she would be ready for the Curragh, so I’ll take the risk.
Verbal Dexterity 6/1.
Clemmie 5/2.I do think that Gustav Klimt will probably win this through lack of opposition more than anything.
But still I’d certainly want more than a measly 9/4 about that eventuality, especially 3 weeks beforehand.
Herculean would prove interesting should he line up?
Imaging – despite concerns regarding his ability to act on fast ground – completely outclassed his rivals today, and was probably a good bit better than the winning margin suggests.
He’s been cut from 12/1 into 8/1 on the back of that, and he’s now nearing the limits of what I could consider too short to back. Gustav has him held quite comfortably, and I can’t see any logical reason as to why that should change.
Charlton hasn’t been shy of sending over a good one when he has them, Charles, so would be interesting at the very least. He won a Group 1 at the Guineas meeting last year with Decorated Knight.
Think Gustav’s poor run was probably due to more being taken out of him with that first run he had on heavy ground – he also got quite worked up in the paddock beforehand and was actually led out by Aiden himself.
Charlton seems unlikely to have Herculean ready in time for anything juicy this year, it’s like watching a glacier edging away from the ice floe.
Imaging won but it was a pretty poor Listed contest. The runner up is still a maiden and wasn’t out since last July. Third horse Brother Bear lost his way last season with his final two starts in the 80’s and it’s somewhat hard to believe he has nearly matched his best today, when splitting two maidens. Hence, who was fourth today is still a maiden after six runs and she was hugely disappointing in a fillies maiden last time.
We have to take a huge leap of faith tonight to believe that Hence, who ran to 74, 76, 78, 84 and 61 on her first five starts and who came into this race rated 82 on official figures, has suddenly managed to run 35 lbs better than she did on 10th of April, for a new RPR of 96.
I’m calling bull plop on the Racing Post figures. She came in rated 23 lbs behind Imaging, with five runs on the board, but has managed to run him to 3/4 of a length, a nose and a neck. That seems nonsense to me.
The ratings compilers don’t half stretch belief, in their attempts to make the winners look good.
I think Imaging is a long way short of 2000 Guineas class but I do take the point that this looks a rag-tag Classic, where several could defect. If Saxon Warrior were to come here he would be as short as a midgie’s willy on a cold Scottish evening.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
ps Hence ran in an awful looking Handicap off 82. That race has seen Run 23 Win 0 Placed 3 Unplaced 20 since. What would her chances be in a Handicap off 96 then?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
You have the wrong horse there, Steve. Prior to today, Hence had never raced outside of a Fillies Maiden.
We’ve discussed time and time again on this forum, you foremost among us Steve, about the wild inconsistencies of RPR’s. At the best of times they can treated as a faint guideline, at the worst they can be treated as farcical.
Regardless, what Imaging won today was undeniably a weak race. When we factor in the ground, the trouble he got in running, and the manner in which he accelerated clear once the gap appeared, it points to him being a class apart to todays opponents.
That is not Guineas class though. In my estimation, Gustav had about as much in hand over Imaging at Leopardstown, as Imaging had over those up against him today. Gustav disappointed at Newmarket, but I think he is capable of more than that, and as other have pointed out, he may well win this through sheer lack of competition. Likewise, Imaging may be capable of making the frame for the same reasons, and I thought the 12/1, and to a lesser degree the 8/1, could look reasonably generous once the market gets a shake up.
It is the correct horse but I had somehow felt her second to Katie Cruel was a handicap race. My mistake. It doesn’t change that she is a maiden who suddenly got bumped a stone higher than the official handicapper rates her.
You could argue that Imaging has won with more in hand than it appears but I believe that they have rated the others more than they are due. I feel it would be better to rate Imaging lower and observe that he could have run to a higher mark had it fallen better for him. I doubt he has really run to within a lb of his effort behind Gustav Klimt this evening.
RPR’s are just ballpark numbers that I use in absence of other sources. You can wait ages for an official figure sometimes. I agree it’s a race that could break up really badly. I just somehow feel sad about the idea of Imaging winning it when he’s probably a Group 3 colt.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
You could argue that Imaging has won with more in hand than it appears but I believe that they have rated the others more than they are due. I feel it would be better to rate Imaging lower and observe that he could have run to a higher mark had it fallen better for him. I doubt he has really run to within a lb of his effort behind Gustav Klimt this evening.
This 100%
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I’m not disputing any of that, the RPR’s awarded for the Tetrarch runners mean next to nothing to me. Imaging has proved he is significantly better than Listed class though, and at the previously available/current prices, could represent value to make the frame in what should be a very substandard Guineas.
Yeah Voleur there’s no doubt he’d have a chance in it.
Just was about to type up a reply and saw that Steve had written up what i was thinking.
Whilst he’s overcome adversity yesterday, his level of form probably hasn’t increased for it.
One potential question mark that was answered was his ability to atleast handle the ground.
I’d imagine he’s of a higher level that a G3 colt as a 3yo, perhaps not in open company, but who knows.
It’s tricky to find horses that will be certain to turn up here, your shout on VD isn’t a bad one, as he’s one of the likliest.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Verbal Dexterity has been ruled out by Bolger, I’d noticed Paddy Power had scratched him from the betting but I only saw my fears confirmed today:
“Verbal Dexterity is fine but will not be ready in time for 2000 Guineas @curraghrace His big day is Irish Champion Stakes @LeopardstownRC”
He’s fine, but his big day won’t be until September? That doesn’t sound like fine to me, and it seems like a very strange long term target to have for a 3 year old.
Imaging has been cut to 6/1 with Paddy Power, and with all these defects could go off much shorter yet. I see Gustav Klimt has been cut to 13/8 with the same firm, and it may be wise to take the 9/4 still available with Sky Bet, because it’s looking like his to lose at this stage no matter how poorly he ran at Newmarket.
Just to illustrate how weak of a Classic this has the potential to be, here is my roughly 100% book of what the top 5 in the betting could like on the day:
Gustav Klimt 4/5
Imaging 10/3
Symbolization 6/1
Hey Gaman 8/1
Romanised 14/1That doesn’t even take into account that Symbolization and Hey Gaman are probably more likely not to run, than run.
The winner of the French 2000 may be tempted to come over and add a second very winnable Classic to their CV, but I imagine its all but certain the winner of the Poulains makes the trip to Ascot for the St James Palace, or to Chantilly for the Jockey Club. The 13 day break between Longchamp and the Curragh would probably make the decision for most trainers. Rhododendron had a very hard race in the Oaks before running in the Diane just 16 days later, so it’s not impossible, but we all know what happened to her then.
All in all it’s looking like a very tepid affair, and I’ve convinced myself that Gustav Klimt can indeed win this with a bit in hand, and 9/4 should be far better than anything available on the day. Hopefully nothing comes out of the woodwork in the meantime.
I suspect that we saw the best of Verbal Dexterity last year.
Bolger’s comments don’t make much sense.
“Gone at the game” is sometimes used prematurely but you have to wonder with Jim Bolger. He seems stuck with stock from a few stallions and isn’t really getting much tune out of them. I can’t remember the last time I backed one of his horses.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Yep Steve, a lot of Bolgers are by Vocalised….a sire i have little time for, and when i see a 2yo line up from the sire, he’s off the list quite quickly.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Good news.
Elarqam – despite Johnston expressing his desire to try him over 10f next time out – looks like he’s heading here rather than the Dante, and 7/1 is still available but will not last long.
He should have the beating of this lot, unless Gustav comes on a fair bit from Newmarket. I’m not surprised by their decision really, as I said this looks like a very winnable Classic, and is a far more enticing prospect than taking on Saxon Warrior at Epsom.
Charlton finally seems to have Herculean ready Steve. He is entered in a couple of races on Friday at Newbury and Newmarket. Might still see him at Royal Ascot.
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