November 20, 2013 at 12:13 #25118November 26, 2013 at 11:02 #459846
My favorite meeting of the year, I have been going for the last five years. IMO Hong Kong racing is the best run in the world.
These are my thoughts on the international races.
Hong Kong Cup
Doesnt seem that good a turnout this year. I was very impressed with Military Attack in the QEII Cup in April and more so in the Singapore Cup. He is on his way back now and must have a favorite’s chance. 3/1 is a fair price as I expect he will be shorter at local odds on the day. Cirrus Des Aigles has tried a few times in HK and never really run to form, if I were interested in backing him I would take local odds (racebets and canbet take bets at local odds). Little Mike is well capable of springing a surprise at decent local odds, but I wont be supporting him.
Hong Kong Vase
If The Fugue travels over without problem she is a banker bet here. 7/4 is fair value and may hopefully be a point longer in HK at local odds. Nothing else in the race is worth considering.
Hong Kong Sprint
Last year’s winner Lord Kanaloa is due to run his last race, and I am expecting him to win again. The current odds are not that appealing. 13/8 is just about worth taking IMO as I think he will be shorter at local odds on the day. Slade Power could be worth an EW bet at 25/1 with Bet365 at the time of writing.
Hong Kong Mile
Moonlight Cloud is not value at 7/4 IMO, she is possibly vulnerable at a mile. Gold-Fun is the local hope, 5/1 is currently available with Hills which is worth taking if you fancy this one as he will be shorter on the day at local odds. My main fancy is Sky Lantern who may be a decent price at local odds on the day. She has show a decent turn of foot in the UK which is necessary in HK. Again a major factor is how she travels over to HK.
If anybody is interested, I run the website: stmsolutions.co.uk (not for profit). I concentrate on flat turf group races. The following links relate to my opinions on the HK International races.
stmsolutions.co.uk/roadtohkg.phpDecember 4, 2013 at 07:57 #460734
Currently sitting in my hotel room in Hong Kong, overlooking Happy Valley race track. Will be going tonight for the International Jockeys Challenge, might have a small bet on Christophe Soumillon currently priced up at about 15/1, low class racing though, so cant show too much interest.
Was thinking on the flight over yesterday, that Glorious Days may be worth an interest in the Mile on Sunday. Currently priced up at 12/1 in the UK, I expect he will be a lot shorter at local odds on the day. This will be his first run of the HK season which starts round about July time, though he has a good record first time out. As I mentioned before, I dont think that Moonlight Clouds odds represent value considering the mile trip is as far as she wants to go. Also it has been reported over here that Sky Lantern did not look too good when she got off the plane, apparently she has now recovered, but this doesnt bode well for her chances, still might be worth a bet at local odds though as I wouldnt be surprised to see her go off at a double figure price. Im not too sure about Gold Fun who has won a few races over here, but needs to improve a bit to take a hand here IMO, he may well be up to it, but I wont be supporting him on Sunday.
So Glorious Days could be the one given that he is rated one of the best milers over here, closely matched with Ambitious Dragon, last years winner, Glorious Days was second last year. Certainly 12/1 seems like a good EW bet to me.December 4, 2013 at 16:00 #460767
photo album from International Jockeys Championship at Happy Valley tonight (won by 50/1 outsider Kerrin McEvoy via a 26/1 winner and a 14/1 second placing).
http://campaign.hkjc.com/en/2013-hkir/2 … um-07.aspx
draw takes place tomorrow.December 4, 2013 at 16:53 #460769
- Total Posts 1207
I would be against taking short prices on horses that are a long way from home and at the end of a very long season. Those that have done it before (Red Cadeaux) can probably be more trusted to run their race. I just wonder whether Sky Lantern will need a break.
SHLDecember 5, 2013 at 09:36 #460809
draw made – races 4, 5, 7, 8 here:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/Info/Meet … 31208/ST/4
final version of racecard typically available 24 hours before meeting starts – so downloadable around 04:30 UK time on Saturday.
race 4 (Vase) jumps 06:00 UK time on Sunday.December 5, 2013 at 09:45 #460812
- Total Posts 19597
Hong Kong Mile looks a great race I would imagine Sky Lantern will be held up aswell as Moonlight Cloud will make for exciting viewing.Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*nDecember 5, 2013 at 11:41 #460820
Just been having a look at the draw for Sundays races, I generally try not to get too upset about this sort of thing as its something that can usually be managed by a decent jockey and a bit of luck in running.
Reactions of the connections have been posted on the Hkjc website here http://campaign.hkjc.com/en/2013-hkir/2013-hkir-news-details.aspx?in_file=hkir_news_2013120501650.html&b_cid=EWHPJSE_1314LHKIR
Interestingly Freddy Head said he was hoping for an outside draw for Midnight Cloud whereas most of the other connections would have preferred an inside draw.
Last year in the mile I had a small EW bet on Gordon Lord Byron as his odds were massive 80/1 for a win and double figure odds for a place. I was just reading a comment from Tom Hogan who said that the horse is much stronger this year and that last year he was running a temperature two hours after the race. He was just beaten into 4th place last year, I put it down to him not getting the mile, but if he is anything like those odds again this year, he must be supported.December 6, 2013 at 18:39 #460962
Japanese connections are very bullish about the chances of Lord Kanaloa in the sprint, despite the outside draw http://japanracing.jp/_news2013/131206-04.html
I cant see past Lord Kanaloa or Lucky Nine in this race, currently 15/8 and 9/2 respectively with Hills which seem fair prices to me, I expect Lucky Nine will be much shorter at local odds due to his popularity over here and good draw.December 7, 2013 at 06:34 #461059
- Total Posts 195
Fascinating stuff, STM, thank you and the very best of luckDecember 7, 2013 at 08:12 #461068December 7, 2013 at 10:02 #461086
Just got back from the pub in Wan Chai, and having a look at the initial odds posted on the HKJC website, maybe I had a few too many beers, but I guess that they will all change in the next 20 hours or so.
The following looked potentially interesting.
Dunaden 20/1 in the Vase
Slade Power 95/1 in the sprint
Moonlight Cloud 3.1/1 in the mile
Sky Lantern 14/1 in the mile
Gordon Lord Byron 41/1 in the mile
Cirrus Des Aigles 18/1 in the Cup
Little Mike 63/1 in the Cup
Side Glance 39/1 in the Cup
Current odds can be viewed on the HKJC website http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url=/racing/pages/odds_wp.aspx&lang=en&langRedirect=true#r_shortcut_e
As I mentioned in an earlier post, Canbet and Racebets take bets at local odds. They seem OK to me though I have never yet had a decent win with them.
I have a sneaking fancy for Tableaux in the 6th race, not covered in the UK betting. But this one won a couple of group 2 races in the spring when trained by Andre Fabre. It is currently priced up at 31/1. Ryan Moore has the ride. The trip is a bit short, but it is a twice group 2 winner running in a class 2 handicap. What price would that be in the UK?December 7, 2013 at 16:38 #461186
HKJC commentary team plus Neil Callan preview the races on Racing To Win.
Hit red buttons numbered 4 (Vase), 5 (Sprint), 7 (Mile) and 8 (Cup)
on the day, internet radio commentary (deliberately delayed about 45 seconds) can be had by clicking ‘English’ here:December 8, 2013 at 07:01 #461254
two done, two to go.
Vase (race 4):
1. Dominant 12/1
2. The Fugue 6/4
3. Dunaden 6/1
Sprint (race 5):
1. Lord Kanaloa 4/5 (by a street)
2. Sole Power 76/1
3. Frederick Engels 11/2
(Jwala collapsed on track in closing stages – Drowne reported conscious and moving arms, legs)
results and video replays:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/Info/meet … ish/Local/December 8, 2013 at 08:07 #461255
- Total Posts 195
well, thank you again, STM .. got on Glorious Days at 18/1 .. hope you’re having a great time in HK
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