Help me figure out the Jumps Triple Crown

Home Forums Big Races – Discussion Help me figure out the Jumps Triple Crown

This topic contains 16 replies, has 7 voices, and was last updated by stevecaution stevecaution 3 weeks ago.

Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 17 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #1318425
    steeplechasing
    steeplechasing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4507

    I don’t know why but this holds a fascination for me each year. Winning the Betfair Chase, the King George and The Gold Cup would be seen as a mighty test. In reality, only two or three horses are capable of achieving it.

    Betvictor were going 50s Might Bite which seemed quite big to me. I had a score on and they cut it to 33. Hills go 33 and Lads 25. I’m told 365 still go 50s Might Bite.

    Best prices are:

    25 Sizing John
    50 Might Bite
    66 Thistlecrack
    100 Cue Card

    At first glance Thistlecrack looks the bet, to my mind anyway, but the Betfair is not currently in Tizzard’s plan. I’ve had a tenner anyway on the basis that the horse will be well forward enough for him to be tempted. First planned outing for the horse is the KG. There is also the concern that his past injury has weakened that tendon. I’d normally never back a horse again who has been off for a longish time with a tendon injury. It is very rare that they come back to their best, although the odd one does and Thistlecrack’s injury was reportedly a tiny tear. Anyway, wouldn’t back him at 6s for the Gold Cup but happy to have a small bet at 66 that Tizz sends him to Haydock and his tendon holds out.

    Tizzard has publicly committed Cue Card to the Betfair but even I cannot see him landing a Triple Crown now, although when fresh he could run a big race at Haydock.

    So, the only solid contenders, both of whom will go for the TC according to trainers are Sizing John and Might Bite.

    Sizing John is an admirable horse, tough and consistent, but I don’t think he’s top class and without a massive dose of luck you need to be top class to win the TC. Still, at 25/1, once you’ve worked the maths out, he’s worth betting.

    Might Bite is a year older than Sizing John but less experienced (7 chase runs to Sizing John’s 11) and he’s 6lbs behind Sizing John in the ratings. But I think he has the potential to go to the top if his idiosyncrasies are ironed out. 50/1 is definitely too big for the TC.

    So, there we are. To my mind, just 2 of the planned contenders are capable of winning this simply by virtue of being likely to run in the Betfair. If either wins the Betfair, the other two big races await, but the winner is at that point fully committed to each race, removing one of the main drawbacks of antepost betting (assuming of course the winner stays sound). And the winner will go to the second leg as one of the strong favourites.

    The very large fly in this ointment is Thistlecrack. If his debut is at Kempton and he’s back to his best, he’ll be very hard to beat, but you could back him to help manage your profit and loss.

    It will take a better head for figures than I have to work this out, but instinctively I feel there’s a lot of potential value here. GT might be the man to figure out the permutations. The key is the Betfair. If you share my view that, in the absence of Thistlecrack, it is highly likely Sizing John or Might Bite will win the first leg. You have 25/1 and 50/1 about them, then it is about managing your TC portfolio across the other two legs.

    Over to you lot!

    Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference

    #1318428

    FrankieMac
    Participant
    • Total Posts 57

    Personally I don’t think there’s any value in a TC bet at all.

    Asking a horse to peak on 3 occasions, at 3 different tracks, against high quality opposition, at different points in the season, taking going etc into account….nigh on impossible I would think. Too many variables for me.

    Would love to see it done mind and I’d be routing for whichever horse managed win the first two regardless of who I had backed for the GC. :good:

    #1318429

    greenasgrass
    Participant
    • Total Posts 477

    Like you two I think it’s a very difficult task to keep a horse fit, sound and primed to peak for all three. I don’t think it will be done this season.
    The tendon is what puts me off TC- I wouldn’t care to run a horse with questionable tendons on deep ground as it may be for the Betfair.

    Our Duke may be the fly in the ointment for the final leg. We know he stays and if he has the class will be hard to beat. I was rather taken by Jessie’s answer as to why he didn’t run in the RSA- she said she’d rather wait and win the Gold Cup with him next year rather than the RSA this year. In much the same tone as Robbie Power, when asked if he was off to fly home or start celebrating after the GC, said “Oh I just have to hop up on the other horse and win the Grand Annual first”.

    If I had to do a treble I would do
    Betfair- Sizing John
    King George- Might Bite
    Gold Cup- Our Duke

    #1318430

    greenasgrass
    Participant
    • Total Posts 477

    Just looked at the Gold Cup 2017 thread. At the end of the 2016 festival when the thread started we were looking forward to seeing Don Cossack, Vautour, Valseur Lido, Thistlecrack, Coneygree and possibly Douvan lining up. March is very far away…

    #1318431

    greenasgrass
    Participant
    • Total Posts 477

    Forgot about Yorkhill! The other big danger for the last leg (I don’t think will run in the first two).

    #1318432
    Venture to Cognac
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 11350

    Just looked at the Gold Cup 2017 thread. At the end of the 2016 festival when the thread started we were looking forward to seeing Don Cossack, Vautour, Valseur Lido, Thistlecrack, Coneygree and possibly Douvan lining up. March is very far away…

    Same every year Grass. The markets at Christmas will bear little resemblance to those on the day, so always fraught with danger.

    Not that it stops me having a go mind lol :mail:

    #1318433
    Venture to Cognac
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 11350

    I don’t know why but this holds a fascination for me each year. Winning the Betfair Chase, the King George and The Gold Cup would be seen as a mighty test. In reality, only two or three horses are capable of achieving it.

    Betvictor were going 50s Might Bite which seemed quite big to me. I had a score on and they cut it to 33. Hills go 33 and Lads 25. I’m told 365 still go 50s Might Bite.

    Best prices are:

    25 Sizing John
    50 Might Bite
    66 Thistlecrack
    100 Cue Card

    I’ll sit this one out Joe (I’ll have enough on lol) but have to say if you’re playing, the odds for the front 3 look fair, while I’d be wanting a lot more than 100’s for Cue Card. Surely though the type of bet to appeal to a few, with the added advantage of a potential big return with leg 3. Best of luck you!!!

    #1318444
    steeplechasing
    steeplechasing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4507

    Reflecting more on this I might take a Cracksman view and risk a potential non runner because the upside is so high and have another bet on Thistlecrack at 66.

    Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference

    #1318446
    Middle_Of_March
    Middle_Of_March
    Participant
    • Total Posts 854

    A treble on the individual races is a possible but I can’t see a horse winning all three.

    Thistlecrack wins the Gold Cup and possibly the king George. But he won’t run in the first one so there’s no bet for me

    #1318693
    Nathan Hughes
    Nathan Hughes
    Participant
    • Total Posts 17102

    Good luck Joe
    Hope Thistlecrack can return in good form
    He one of those horses that when your watching the race, your eyes open up

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #1318695
    stevecaution
    stevecaution
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6913

    I must be missing something with Thistlecrack because I don’t think much of his chasing form at all. Excellent hurdler, yes, chaser? I just don’t see anything there.

    I still think Many Cloud’s tragic end led to superlatives about his courage. His previous race win was awful form.

    Style over substance for me but good luck.

    What's all the fuss about Estimate on the Racing Legends Stamps?

    There's always been a second rate Mare on them anyway 😉

    #1318761
    Nathan Hughes
    Nathan Hughes
    Participant
    • Total Posts 17102

    His King George victory was pretty special for those of us on at decent odds Steve
    before that I’d say the vast majority were against him then for
    At the moment being off the track a long time the jury is back out

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #1318763
    steeplechasing
    steeplechasing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4507

    Henderson back-pedalling now with Might Bite saying he could go but it might not be the ideal prep for KG (which sounds to me like he won’t go). He should have thought twice about issuing a positive response to the Jockey Club’s request for an endorsement for the initiative a week earlier.

    Suspect Sizing John will go off very short at Haydock if Might Bite doesn’t turn up although there is one potential fly in the ointment in the grey shape of Bristol de Mai who can look like a world beater on soft at the track.

    Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference

    #1318768
    stevecaution
    stevecaution
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6913

    His King George victory was pretty special for those of us on at decent odds Steve
    before that I’d say the vast majority were against him then for
    At the moment being off the track a long time the jury is back out

    Landing bets does not make a horse great though Nathan. There’s no room for sentiment in betting.

    That King George was a match race where Cue Card barely held off 20/1 shot Silviniaco Conti. The five runner field was a huge disappointment exacerbated by the fact that it was 8/1, 20/1 and 25/1 bar the two.

    Cue Card won at 4/9 next time but the race threw up zero winners as of yet. He fell in the Gold Cup and then got beat by Tea For Two. Hardly knicker wetting form for me and hurdle champions as highly rated as Thistlecrack who come chasing have very little, if any, wriggle room for matching or surpassing their hurdle rating over fences.

    As I have pointed out before Bobs Worth came chasing rated 160 and went to 180 over fences. Thistlecrack came into Chasing rated 176 over hurdles but is a 170 rated Chaser for now. Cue Card went into the King George rated 176 but is now a 168 rated Chaser. Silviniaco Conti is down a stone and a half on the chaser he once was.

    Thistlecrack has enough to prove as a chaser for me.

    I recall after last year’s King George that “Fans” were saying that Thistlecrack would win The Gold Cup in a canter and retire to stud unbeaten. :wacko:

    What's all the fuss about Estimate on the Racing Legends Stamps?

    There's always been a second rate Mare on them anyway 😉

    #1318773
    Nathan Hughes
    Nathan Hughes
    Participant
    • Total Posts 17102

    It’s one of those though that if he had gone chasing earlier in his career his hurdles rating would of been lower.
    He’s was still lightly raced over the fences before injury, potentially for me he could and still might be a great horse, not quite a Kauto or Sprinter in terms of ratings but visually for me next in line to challenge or get close to those.
    I not keen on horses coming back from injury, Sprinter proved you can return to a very high level but the majority don’t.

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 17 total)

You must be logged in to reply to this topic.