February 8, 2016 at 21:24 #1232855
- Total Posts 4584
It is a bit early but didn’t think it would hurt if we put a few speculators out there. A bit of shared information might also save a few quid as well.
At this stage the horse I am most interested in is Bekkensfirth in the novices handicap. He looked the part but didn’t show that much over hurdles but has shown plenty in a couple of chases. Possibly a shade unfortunate not to be unbeaten. I am hoping he has been put aside on the assumption he has achieved a good enough mark and the slow ground wouldn’t have seen him to best advantage in any case.
Anyone read anything about him?
Will be taking a close look at the Skelton runners as it wouldn’t surprise me if they suddenly bounced back to form.February 8, 2016 at 22:00 #1232859
The horse im most looking forward to is GREAT FIELDS. I’m hoping he gets a run at cheltenham, heard alot about this horse and he’s working with the nice ones at closutton.
Also think there might be a nice race in STONE HARD, I wouldn’t want him going coral cup, it would have to be county hurdle or Martin pipe, and on his debut run he beat don’t touch it and supersundae over 2 miles, hes dissapointed since but in good races ove what i believe to be an inadequate trip, hes shaped well jntil the latter part of his races, then been eased when beaten, that will only help his mark.
Ran very well in his first 2 runs over hurdles especially when staying on behind long dog and his race on Saturday was over after a couple of hurdles, if the handicapper takes anything of him he could get into the Martin pipe
A HARES BRESTH.
Fancy him for the county unless he takes up his supreme entry, Ben pauling clearly thinks the world of this horse and after having his cheltenham prep in a novice hurdle it diddnt allow the handicapper to put his mark up to much, a strong traveller and beaten when he ran quite quickly in a competitive handicap after a long lay off,
Business solutions 3 mile handicap chase.
Bug eye catcher for me in this last year before joining jp mcmanus, Ran a might race in the paddy power handicap imo and had a run over hurdles since to freshen him up, if I knew this was the target, id be on.
Won’t be backing any of these until nrnb which hopefully will be the end of the month.February 8, 2016 at 22:06 #1232860
Also PYLON THE PRESSURE, still a maiden but beat by 2 very good horses and his conqueror OUR DUKE who I’m quite suprised diddnt get a batley entry, he may be saved for a novice hurdle at punchestown but if he turned up in a handicap, id be all over him.
Must be honest I’m not sure about the ruling with not having a current handicap mark, and if you have to have 3 runs etc…February 8, 2016 at 22:39 #1232862
Desoto County and Johns Spirit are 2 at the top of my hit listFebruary 8, 2016 at 23:52 #1232869
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I love the handicaps, and normally where I do best, but had a bloodbath last year. Not going in as heavy this year, and will wait as late as possible, but got a few bets on, and a few on the radar.
Hope you’re right about Skelton stilvi, as I like his Workbench for The Grand Annual
Bets so far
Edited 23rd February
Decent record in this, and liked Fingal Bay & Minella Foru for a while now, though have cooled on Minella Rocco just a bit. A lot will depend on how Fingal fares, should he take up any of his entries before this, but he looks extremely well handicapped. The same applies to Minella Foru. He gave me a good payday in The Paddy Power, with the only drawback being whether or not this is his main target, as trip wise, he’s very versatile.
Loads of dangers, not least Doctor Harper (just include him as a danger for any of the handicaps ), and The Young Master. With all the hype that Thistlecrack attracted in The Cleeve, it was easy to overlook the encouraging performance of The Romford Pele, and he’s another who could have this as a target, amongst other races. What’s Happening is a bit of a forgotten horse, but he loves Cheltenham, and if sound, could be one for this or The Kim Muir.
Minella Foru 20’s to 25’s
Fingal Bay 20’s EW
Fingal Bay 27’s to 29’s
Minella Rocco 26’s to 80’s (Laid 13’s)
Salubrious 90’s to 95’s
He’ll no doubt find one too good, but had to take some of the 40’s on Thomas Crapper, as I expect him to return to form in time for March. I’ll have a proper look at the race nearer the time.
Thomas Crapper 40’s
Too many to mention on the radar here, but loved the way Karezak travelled in The Long Walk, which was his biggest test to date. This trip & the, hopefully, better ground, should see this race as being perfect for him.
Karezak 25’s to 80’s
I think you can blindly pick a WPM horse just for the sake of it, but I do think these 2, particularly Ivan, could come into the reckoning here. I’m hoping he doesn’t run too well if he turns up at Newbury on Saturday, and ideally I’d like to see him drop a couple of pounds. Great comeback from him last time after a long layoff. Blazer looks an interesting sort for this as well, and is another who could head for The Betfair as well.
Ivan Grozny 100’s to 110’s
Townshend 48’s to 75’s
A race to look at properly nearer the time, with the usual JP puzzle to work out (I’ll definitely bet one of his), but I do think Workbench could surprise a few people, and last years winner, who’s slipping down the weights again, is hard to leave out of the equation.
Workbench 70’s to 100’s
No bets in the following races……..yet
Pertemps – Very definitely a wait and see job at the moment, but a few like If In Doubt, Double Seven & Seefood are of interest at the moment. I’ll wait for all the trials first though before having a bet. I’d love to see Jonjo consider Minella Rocco for this as well.
No strong fancy yet.
The Plate – My record in this is awful, and I have to go back to 2003, when I had a field day with one of my very favourite horses, Young Spartacus, who won the race in it’s old guise. I’ve paid for that win since though, and I’m struggling to remember having a horse place in it in the last few years Monetaire or Johns Spirit would be the obvious shouts for this, but wouldn’t be in a rush to rule out Double Ross or Salubrious either. Of those four, Salubrious appeals the most, as I think he’s miles better than his mark, and no surprise to see him bounce back. This is a bit of dark horse, and I don’t think connections will send him, but this could be ideal for JP’s Shanpallas. Another who’s looking well handicapped, and would have a strong chance on better ground, based on his 5th in The 2014 Paddy Power, where he ran a blinder. I wanted him badly to be a Grand National horse, but they seem to be using him sparingly (injured?), and I suppose there’s just the chance they don’t quite know what to do with him.
Main fancy at the moment – Salubrious
Kim Muir – I normally do a lot better in this, and comes right after The Plate, which is normally handy haha. Cause of Causes is my #1 fancy for Cheltenham, and I badly want to see him head here. Won the 4 miler in style last year, and should have landed this 2 years ago, and would have, but for a poor ride. A horse who is ridiculously well handicapped. I also like the idea of Guess Again, who was cantering in this last year when brought down, but he’s not been seen for a while, and was disappointed to see him missing from the entries for Aintree. Travelled like the winner in The Bet 365 Gold Cup, before he just got swallowed up close to home, and I’m hoping to see him soon. The Pipe pair of Standing Ovation & Amigo are also of big interest, and I hope they take up one of their upcoming engagements. The Job Is Right is another who could be ew banker material in this, and I think this is the race where we’ll see him. ****Edit 10/02/16**** – I’ve bet What’s Happening at 100’s, and adding Our Father to the shortlist, could see myself doing a mini-book on this race, really looking forward to seeing entries.
Main Fancy – Cause of Causes (Now bet 20’s EW)
Martin Pipe – I won’t have a bet till final decs, but Nambour & Petit Mouchoir look likely types at this stage.
No strong fancy yet.February 9, 2016 at 00:33 #1232872
- Total Posts 902
I’m going to try my luck with following anything either O Neill or Pipe have in handicaps. John’s Spirit Minella Rocco and Holywell are horses O Neill has been trying to get low marks for. I can’t think of any obvious standout pipe horse but I will be keeping a close eye on entries and obviously any horse of JP’s in the green and gold who has shown any glimpse of any ability in an earlier start followed by a string of woeful efforts and a couple of pulled ups, is almost a nailed on certainty. Gilgamboa, riverside city, and the aforementioned Minella Rocco are another three of interest to me.February 9, 2016 at 21:44 #1232931
When Gordon Elliott states we are protecting his handicap mark so he will not be running in the Betfair you should take not and follow me in on Desoto CountyFebruary 10, 2016 at 04:28 #1232957
- Total Posts 4734
You got a source for that?February 10, 2016 at 06:53 #1232961
Quoted on lineFebruary 14, 2016 at 14:36 #1233631
With TOWNSHEND now having an official mark of 130 in the uk, as a novice dose he have to have 1 more run to get into a cheltenham handicap? And if he dosent what’s his chances of getting in the Martin pipe of 130?February 17, 2016 at 23:26 #1234111
- Total Posts 902
Another one i just thought of that could appear in a handicap hurdle is Clondaw Warrior. This horse on the basis of his flat form has to be the best handicapped horse around. Rated 107 on the flat but only 128 over hurdles. Has to be in with a shout in a handicap if sent?February 18, 2016 at 14:57 #1234156
- Total Posts 422
Townsend has to have one more run to qualify yes, he’s been entered all over the shop in the last few weeks and he’s definitely one to keep an eye on.
Not sure Clondaw Warrior will get in off a mark of 128 Wexford.
Back on topic, I bloody love the handicaps. There’s nothing better than sifting through entries and weights (the entries shoul be announced pretty soon I reckon) and picking out a couple of beauties, then watching the price contract over the next three weeks, only to find that the best runs in the Three Miler on day one rather than the Plate. Here’s what’s on my radar.
SALUBRIOUS – In the Three Miler on the first day. Festival winner, unexposed, crying out for a trip.
OPEN EAGLE/THOMAS HOBSON/TOWNSHEND – Mullins often likes to send his ‘lesser’ animals to handicaps, particularly the Martin Pipe. All three of these are well handicapped IMO, and I’ll be interested if any of them turn up anywhere. Particularly THOMAS HOBSON, who could do some damage in the Martin Pipe off 143.
MODUS – I’ve done my dough on this boy in the Supreme, but still feel he could be well handicapped for the County. WIth a bit of luck in running, and with better ground, he should be able to have a major say.
VILLAGE VIC – Tailor made for the Plate. Still well treated, and a race that greatly favours front runners. The only issue could be if he’s rerouted to the Ryanair, as that’s a grade one in name only this year.
DIAMOND KING – Current favourite for the Coral Cup, and will be miles shorter on the day. Not sure he’s good enough to win off 149 though. But at 12/1 currently, he has a very good chance of at least a place.
DESOTO COUNTY – Another G. Elliott ex-brit horse. Missed the Betfair to preserve the handicap mark.
STARCHITECT – Speaking of the Betfair. Ran a mighty race to finish second, and lost all chance with horrible blunder at the last (woudn’t have won). Festival form already in last year’s Fred Winter, and will go well on better ground.
DOCTOR HARPER – Know idea what his target will be, but off 141 he has a say in anything he turns up in. Maybe the Kim Muir with Codd or O’Connor on board.
TELL US MORE – Now rated 139 after three runs. Would have hosed up last time out but for tipping up (admittedly a problem with jumping). Ran well for a long way in the Supreme last year (the wrong race, pocket talking!), and could be well handicapped judging by his still lofty reputation. Maybe Grand Annual.
GIGGINSTOWN – Whatever novice they run in the Martin Pipe under whichever Mullins kid gets the gig!
Anyway, time for a lie down!February 18, 2016 at 17:17 #1234183
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good luck with Salubrious, as I said, miles ahead of him mark, and I’ll be betting him wherever he goes, very interesting horse for The Festival.February 19, 2016 at 00:03 #1234241
- Total Posts 4734
Just flicked from Mark Howard’s 2012/13 Ahead of the Jumps earlier. Stumbled across Alan King saying he thinks Montbazon is a high class horse. He’s had exactly the same prep he had in 2014 when he finished 3rd, finishing down the field in the Betfair on his seasonal debut, and now he’s rated 2lbs lower. I think Kalkir wins the County and have backed accordingly but have had a little on Montbazon. Deluto County makes up the tricast.February 23, 2016 at 16:54 #1234862
- Total Posts 422
There’s a sea of blue in Oddschecker for our nate MINELLA ROCCO today for the three miler on the first day. Trainer and owner seem familiar? Can see it going off half the price and he taken 12s with Coral.
- This reply was modified 2 years, 8 months ago by Blunkett.
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