Handicap Hikes

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This topic contains 310 replies, has 6 voices, and was last updated by Alexander Alexander 1 day, 22 hours ago.

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  • #25130
    Alexander
    Alexander
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    • Total Posts 961

    The aim here is to readily identify when a National Hunt runner has been recently raised by the handicapper and that runner makes a quick return outing. Circumstances are that a quick second outing often means that technically these can be quite well in regarding their current rating before the revised rating kicks in.
    I’ve contrasted the weekly official BHA ratings and listed those that have been considerably raised. (latest ratings were published on Wed 20th Novemeber so these are the current ratings and will stand until next Wed when they will be revised and the process will start again with a new list of "hiked" runners).

    Below is the list to consider for the week until & incl Tues 26th.
    HURDLERS
    Tigresse Bleue (GB) H▲ 15 lbs
    Next Sensation (IRE) H▲ 13 lbs
    Brinestine (USA) H▲ 12 lbs
    Pension Plan (GB) H▲ 12 lbs
    Ballyculla (IRE) H▲ 11 lbs
    Hidden Identity (IRE) H▲ 11 lbs
    Kings Apollo (GB) H▲ 11 lbs
    Maggie Blue (IRE) H▲ 11 lbs
    Flicka Williams (IRE) H▲ 10 lbs
    CHASERS
    Next Sensation (IRE) C▲ 15 lbs
    Richmond (FR) C▲ 15 lbs
    Gullinbursti (IRE) C▲ 14 lbs
    Night Alliance (IRE) C▲ 13 lbs
    Daymar Bay (IRE) C▲ 13 lbs
    Suburban Bay (GB) C▲ 12 lbs

    From the list above; having an outing today (Friday 22nd)

    Ballyculla (IRE) H▲ 11 lbs 2.50pm FFO takes on 7lb ex but still 4lbs well in
    Night Alliance (IRE) C▲ 13 lbs 3.15pm Asc takes on 7lb ex but still 6lbs well in
    Brinestine (USA) H▲ 12 lbs 3.50pm Asc takes on 7lb ex but still 5lbs well in

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    #459243

    moehat
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    • Total Posts 7610

    First and second yesterday I was listening to it on the radio and made a note of the horses you mentioned. Really interesting stuff, please keep posting it.

    #459271
    Alexander
    Alexander
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    • Total Posts 961

    Hi Moehat,
    Thanks for the interest. It’s comments from colleagues that gives me encouragement. I’ll give this a good trial, you can be sure of that.

    Alex

    #459294
    elcartero
    elcartero
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    • Total Posts 792

    Two nice winners from three today, Alexander…well done…eminently logical and sensible approach. I wish you well…

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    #459322
    Alexander
    Alexander
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    • Total Posts 961

    Hi Elcartero
    thanks for the comments – appreciated

    Only runner from the original list at start of thread running Saturday is at Haydock 2.25pm (Hurdle)

    Gullinbursti (IRE) C▲ 14 lbs

    Gullinbursti creates a tangle to unweave: H’cap increase based on Chase performances (134 to 148) However, after five chase races now reverts back to hurdling for this race. In doing so, does not warrant a penalty,as would be the case if this were a chase. Hurdle form not hiked. The question posed; is his hike in chase form an indication that his hurdling form will show a similar improvement ?
    Alex

    #459581
    Alexander
    Alexander
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    Kings Apollo

    (GB) H▲ 11 lbs Sunday Towcester 2.45pm

    Kings Apollo is the only runner from the list having an outing tomorrow. Handicapper has raised this one 11 lbs (77-88) for recent Amateur riders race. Incidentally, the second in that race Triple Dance has run since (Nov 19th) and disappionted when well backed favourite.

    #459711
    Alexander
    Alexander
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    The only runner from the original list running Monday:

    Kings Apollo

    (GB) H▲ 11 lbs
    Runs Monday 25th Nov Ludlow 3.20pm
    Making a rapid return having run yesterday (Sunday) perhaps unlucky in running and
    fast finishing 2nd.

    NON RUNNER TODAY

    #459963
    Alexander
    Alexander
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    • Total Posts 961

    For full breakdown of method and interpretaion see 1st thread entry above.

    Here is the list for this week starting Wed 27th to Tues 3rd Dec.

    Non of the list are running today Wed 27th.

    HURDLERS
    Free To Dream (IRE) H▲ 15 lbs
    Amethyst Rose (IRE) H▲ 11 lbs
    Dalrymple (IRE) H▲ 11 lbs
    Orvita (FR) H▲ 11 lbs
    Persian Herald (GB) H▲ 10 lbs
    Proud Times (USA) H▲ 10 lbs
    The Game Is A Foot (IRE) H▲ 10 lbs

    CHASERS
    Soudain (FR) C▲ 16 lbs
    Highbury High (IRE) C▲ 13 lbs
    Sydney Paget (IRE) C▲ 13 lbs
    Lambs Cross (GB) C▲ 12 lbs
    Niceonefrankie (GB) C▲ 11 lbs
    Dynaste (FR) C▲ 10 lbs
    Kid Cassidy (IRE) C▲ 10 lbs
    Miss Tenacious (GB) C▲ 10 lbs
    Riddleofthesands (IRE) C▲ 10 lbs

    The list is exclusive to recent runs being hiked by the BHA handicappers. The list contrasts the published weekly lists (20th Nov & 27th Nov)

    Quaddick Lake

    is an interesting mover in the weights, although not increased within the period as mentioned above. Rated Chasing at 117 now. Risen from April 2011 Chasing rating of 95. Hurdle form has risen since the early chase rating also. In fact there has been 17 hurdles races since the last chase run and a rise to current hurdle level of 125. Obviously, the rise in hurdle form has encouraged the handicapper/s to raise the chase rating accordingly. I don’t see any engagements for this one at present but its worth noting.
    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    #459991
    Alexander
    Alexander
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    • Total Posts 961

    Hi
    Three HURDLERS from the list due to run tomorrow Thurday 28th November.

    Proud Times (USA) H▲ 10 lbs TH28/11 UTT1.55pm
    Dalrymple (IRE) H▲ 11 lbs TH28/11 TAU3.55pm
    The Game Is A Foot (IRE) H▲ 10 lbs TH28/11 TAU3.55pm

    #460087
    Alexander
    Alexander
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    • Total Posts 961

    Engaged from the list for Friday 29th November

    Free To Dream (IRE) H▲ 15 lbs FRI 29/11 NEW 1.30pm
    Highbury High (IRE) C▲ 13 lbs FR 29/11 DON 1.20pm & 3.05pm
    Niceonefrankie (GB) C▲ 11 lbs FRI 29/11 DON 1.55pm & NEW 2.40pm

    #460184
    Alexander
    Alexander
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    • Total Posts 961

    This weekend only one runner from the list engaged, Sunday 1st Dec:

    Persian Herald (GB) H▲ 10 lbs SUN 1/12 LEIC 1.30pm

    #460542
    Alexander
    Alexander
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    • Total Posts 961

    MONDAY 2nd December – no qualifiers from the list today.

    #460589
    Alexander
    Alexander
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    • Total Posts 961

    Tuesday 3rd December

    – no runners qualified from the list for today.

    #460738
    Alexander
    Alexander
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    • Total Posts 961

    NEW LIST OF HIKED HANDICAPPER (Wed 4th to Tues 10th Dec)

    HURDLERS

    Portway Flyer (IRE) H▲ 19 lbs
    Pass Muster (GB) H▲ 18 lbs
    Neston Grace (GB) H▲ 16 lbs
    Proud Times (USA) H▲ 15 lbs
    My Guardian Angel (GB) H▲ 13 lbs
    Pass The Time (GB) H▲ 12 lbs
    Weather Babe (GB) H▲ 12 lbs
    Ballyalton (IRE) H▲ 10 lbs
    Edlomond (IRE) H▲ 10 lbs
    My Oh Mount Brown (IRE) H▲ 10 lbs
    Swinging Hawk (GER) H▲ 10 lbs

    CHASERS

    Valdez (GB) C▲ 17 lbs
    Ratify (GB) C▲ 15 lbs
    Off The Ground (IRE) C▲ 15 lbs
    Via Sundown (FR) C▲ 13 lbs
    Tatenen (FR) C▲ 12 lbs
    Great Ocean Road (IRE) C▲ 11 lbs
    Baby Mix (FR) C▲ 10 lbs
    Sablazo (FR) C▲ 10 lbs
    Workbench (FR) C▲ 10 lbs

    Due to run

    TODAY

    (Wed 4TH Dec) from the list above
    Pass The Time (GB) H▲ 12 lbs LUDLOW 1.40PM

    NON RUNNER

    Portway Flyer (IRE) H▲ 19 lbs LUDLOW 3.10PM
    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    #460781
    Alexander
    Alexander
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    • Total Posts 961

    Thurs 5th Dec
    non from the list engaged today.

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