November 22, 2013 at 09:09 #25130
The aim here is to readily identify when a National Hunt runner has been recently raised by the handicapper and that runner makes a quick return outing. Circumstances are that a quick second outing often means that technically these can be quite well in regarding their current rating before the revised rating kicks in.
I’ve contrasted the weekly official BHA ratings and listed those that have been considerably raised. (latest ratings were published on Wed 20th Novemeber so these are the current ratings and will stand until next Wed when they will be revised and the process will start again with a new list of "hiked" runners).
Below is the list to consider for the week until & incl Tues 26th.
Tigresse Bleue (GB) H▲ 15 lbs
Next Sensation (IRE) H▲ 13 lbs
Brinestine (USA) H▲ 12 lbs
Pension Plan (GB) H▲ 12 lbs
Ballyculla (IRE) H▲ 11 lbs
Hidden Identity (IRE) H▲ 11 lbs
Kings Apollo (GB) H▲ 11 lbs
Maggie Blue (IRE) H▲ 11 lbs
Flicka Williams (IRE) H▲ 10 lbs
Next Sensation (IRE) C▲ 15 lbs
Richmond (FR) C▲ 15 lbs
Gullinbursti (IRE) C▲ 14 lbs
Night Alliance (IRE) C▲ 13 lbs
Daymar Bay (IRE) C▲ 13 lbs
Suburban Bay (GB) C▲ 12 lbs
From the list above; having an outing today (Friday 22nd)
Ballyculla (IRE) H▲ 11 lbs 2.50pm FFO takes on 7lb ex but still 4lbs well in
Night Alliance (IRE) C▲ 13 lbs 3.15pm Asc takes on 7lb ex but still 6lbs well in
Brinestine (USA) H▲ 12 lbs 3.50pm Asc takes on 7lb ex but still 5lbs well in
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++November 22, 2013 at 10:37 #459243
- Total Posts 7653
First and second yesterday I was listening to it on the radio and made a note of the horses you mentioned. Really interesting stuff, please keep posting it.November 22, 2013 at 14:00 #459271
Thanks for the interest. It’s comments from colleagues that gives me encouragement. I’ll give this a good trial, you can be sure of that.
AlexNovember 22, 2013 at 16:26 #459294
- Total Posts 797
Two nice winners from three today, Alexander…well done…eminently logical and sensible approach. I wish you well…
Powered by MX LinuxNovember 22, 2013 at 20:25 #459322
thanks for the comments – appreciated
Only runner from the original list at start of thread running Saturday is at Haydock 2.25pm (Hurdle)
Gullinbursti (IRE) C▲ 14 lbs
Gullinbursti creates a tangle to unweave: H’cap increase based on Chase performances (134 to 148) However, after five chase races now reverts back to hurdling for this race. In doing so, does not warrant a penalty,as would be the case if this were a chase. Hurdle form not hiked. The question posed; is his hike in chase form an indication that his hurdling form will show a similar improvement ?
AlexNovember 23, 2013 at 18:44 #459581
(GB) H▲ 11 lbs Sunday Towcester 2.45pm
Kings Apollo is the only runner from the list having an outing tomorrow. Handicapper has raised this one 11 lbs (77-88) for recent Amateur riders race. Incidentally, the second in that race Triple Dance has run since (Nov 19th) and disappionted when well backed favourite.November 24, 2013 at 22:56 #459711
The only runner from the original list running Monday:
(GB) H▲ 11 lbs
Runs Monday 25th Nov Ludlow 3.20pm
Making a rapid return having run yesterday (Sunday) perhaps unlucky in running and
fast finishing 2nd.
NON RUNNER TODAYNovember 27, 2013 at 14:41 #459963
For full breakdown of method and interpretaion see 1st thread entry above.
Here is the list for this week starting Wed 27th to Tues 3rd Dec.
Non of the list are running today Wed 27th.
Free To Dream (IRE) H▲ 15 lbs
Amethyst Rose (IRE) H▲ 11 lbs
Dalrymple (IRE) H▲ 11 lbs
Orvita (FR) H▲ 11 lbs
Persian Herald (GB) H▲ 10 lbs
Proud Times (USA) H▲ 10 lbs
The Game Is A Foot (IRE) H▲ 10 lbs
Soudain (FR) C▲ 16 lbs
Highbury High (IRE) C▲ 13 lbs
Sydney Paget (IRE) C▲ 13 lbs
Lambs Cross (GB) C▲ 12 lbs
Niceonefrankie (GB) C▲ 11 lbs
Dynaste (FR) C▲ 10 lbs
Kid Cassidy (IRE) C▲ 10 lbs
Miss Tenacious (GB) C▲ 10 lbs
Riddleofthesands (IRE) C▲ 10 lbs
The list is exclusive to recent runs being hiked by the BHA handicappers. The list contrasts the published weekly lists (20th Nov & 27th Nov)
is an interesting mover in the weights, although not increased within the period as mentioned above. Rated Chasing at 117 now. Risen from April 2011 Chasing rating of 95. Hurdle form has risen since the early chase rating also. In fact there has been 17 hurdles races since the last chase run and a rise to current hurdle level of 125. Obviously, the rise in hurdle form has encouraged the handicapper/s to raise the chase rating accordingly. I don’t see any engagements for this one at present but its worth noting.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++November 27, 2013 at 19:21 #459991
Three HURDLERS from the list due to run tomorrow Thurday 28th November.
Proud Times (USA) H▲ 10 lbs TH28/11 UTT1.55pm
Dalrymple (IRE) H▲ 11 lbs TH28/11 TAU3.55pm
The Game Is A Foot (IRE) H▲ 10 lbs TH28/11 TAU3.55pmNovember 28, 2013 at 16:16 #460087
Engaged from the list for Friday 29th November
Free To Dream (IRE) H▲ 15 lbs FRI 29/11 NEW 1.30pm
Highbury High (IRE) C▲ 13 lbs FR 29/11 DON 1.20pm & 3.05pm
Niceonefrankie (GB) C▲ 11 lbs FRI 29/11 DON 1.55pm & NEW 2.40pmNovember 29, 2013 at 17:59 #460184
This weekend only one runner from the list engaged, Sunday 1st Dec:
Persian Herald (GB) H▲ 10 lbs SUN 1/12 LEIC 1.30pmDecember 1, 2013 at 20:16 #460542
MONDAY 2nd December – no qualifiers from the list today.December 2, 2013 at 16:14 #460589
Tuesday 3rd December
– no runners qualified from the list for today.December 4, 2013 at 09:15 #460738
NEW LIST OF HIKED HANDICAPPER (Wed 4th to Tues 10th Dec)
Portway Flyer (IRE) H▲ 19 lbs
Pass Muster (GB) H▲ 18 lbs
Neston Grace (GB) H▲ 16 lbs
Proud Times (USA) H▲ 15 lbs
My Guardian Angel (GB) H▲ 13 lbs
Pass The Time (GB) H▲ 12 lbs
Weather Babe (GB) H▲ 12 lbs
Ballyalton (IRE) H▲ 10 lbs
Edlomond (IRE) H▲ 10 lbs
My Oh Mount Brown (IRE) H▲ 10 lbs
Swinging Hawk (GER) H▲ 10 lbs
Valdez (GB) C▲ 17 lbs
Ratify (GB) C▲ 15 lbs
Off The Ground (IRE) C▲ 15 lbs
Via Sundown (FR) C▲ 13 lbs
Tatenen (FR) C▲ 12 lbs
Great Ocean Road (IRE) C▲ 11 lbs
Baby Mix (FR) C▲ 10 lbs
Sablazo (FR) C▲ 10 lbs
Workbench (FR) C▲ 10 lbs
Due to run
(Wed 4TH Dec) from the list above
Pass The Time (GB) H▲ 12 lbs LUDLOW 1.40PM
Portway Flyer (IRE) H▲ 19 lbs LUDLOW 3.10PM
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++December 4, 2013 at 18:40 #460781
Thurs 5th Dec
non from the list engaged today.
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