form reading methods.

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This topic contains 46 replies, has 1 voice, and was last updated by placemat2 placemat2 8 years, 3 months ago.

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  • #15823
    placemat2
    placemat2
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    • Total Posts 320

    I would like to hear how people read the form.My personal opinion is that pace is everything. I would like to hear how others read it.Old school form was all about weight but I’m convinced those dinosaurs are extinct apart from some older people stuck in their ways.I know there are some draw systems that work and trainer strike rates but I’m not talking about that Just form reading.

    What are your thoughts

    #310452
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
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    • Total Posts 24494

    Reading form for me is taking everything in to account.
    Weight, form (one horse against the next, not what race a horse has won), times, going, distance, draw, pace, jockeyship, temperament, course form, trainer form (what every trainer has done in the last few weeks or even few days), trainer’s record in that type of race, jumping ability, consistency, breeding.
    Expect I’ve forgotten something.

    Then use all of that to work out what percentage chance you believe each horse has of winning and convert to odds, back those who you believe are value by comparing your 100% book with bookmakers odds.

    value is everything
    #310456
    placemat2
    placemat2
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    • Total Posts 320

    ok pick a sprint handicap ginger.Then go through the thought process.The reason I say sprint as I only look at sprints as I think I have an edge.If anybody else wants to do the same it could be interesting.Might be able to fill a gap or 2.

    #310571
    placemat2
    placemat2
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    • Total Posts 320

    so I take it that’s a no to that ginger?

    #310588
    Gerald
    Gerald
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    • Total Posts 4465

    3.45 Ripon 6f

    5 h’caps with 11 runners since 2000 or whenever.

    Winners come from traps 2, 3, 3, 4 and 10.

    Bets are on traps 2, 3 and 4.

    Hope that helps.

    #310590
    Gerald
    Gerald
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    • Total Posts 4465

    Winner came from trap 11. :cry:

    #310593
    Big Bucks
    Big Bucks
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    • Total Posts 1061

    never used percentages ever, i know ginger loves them to death but i couldn’t think of anything more misleading and time consuming :D

    #310594
    The Ante-Post King
    The Ante-Post King
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    • Total Posts 8795

    Reading form for me is taking everything in to account.
    Weight, form (one horse against the next, not what race a horse has won), times, going, distance, draw, pace, jockeyship, temperament, course form, trainer form (what every trainer has done in the last few weeks or even few days), trainer’s record in that type of race, jumping ability, consistency, breeding.
    Expect I’ve forgotten something.

    Word Perfect Ginge!

    Then use all of that to work out what percentage chance you believe each horse has of winning and convert to odds, back those who you believe are value by comparing your 100% book with bookmakers odds.

    Load a B*llocks Ginge!

    #310626
    doublethetrouble
    doublethetrouble
    Member
    • Total Posts 243

    TAPK
    that’s a bit harsh :)

    #310637
    placemat2
    placemat2
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    • Total Posts 320

    3.45 Ripon 6f

    5 h’caps with 11 runners since 2000 or whenever.

    Winners come from traps 2, 3, 3, 4 and 10.

    Bets are on traps 2, 3 and 4.

    Hope that helps.

    yeah that helps.I’ll look at a race Tuesday cat 300. I would normally look at higher grades but its carp all day!!

    #310639
    Gerald
    Gerald
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    • Total Posts 4465

    I find the idea that in mid-size fields the two outside wings have an advantage rather appealing, even on straight courses. Say, low = rail, say 1-4 take the lead on the rail, and then 5-8 fall behind them on the rail, later 5-8 can’t get out because they’re smothered by 9-12.

    #310641
    Gerald
    Gerald
    Member
    • Total Posts 4465

    Gee, you’re forcing me to have another bet. Normally, I wouldn’t have even bothered running this data.

    5f 212 y H’caps, Catterick, 9 runners

    1 4-9
    2 2-9
    3 0-9
    4 2-9
    5 0-8
    6 0-8
    7 0-10
    8 1-8
    9 0-9
    10 1-6
    11 0-4

    Traps 1-4 blindfold, or being conservative, 1-4 and 8+. :lol:

    #310643
    Gerald
    Gerald
    Member
    • Total Posts 4465

    Ran it for 8 runners, just in case there is a non-runner. Perversely, there is no win for trap 1, though there is a low bias.

    8 runner h’caps, 5f 212y, Catterick

    1 0-7
    2 2-8
    3 1-6
    4 2-8
    5 2-8
    6 0-7
    7 1-8
    8 0-6
    9 0-3
    10 0-1
    11 0-2

    #310677
    Expect To Win
    Expect To Win
    Member
    • Total Posts 197

    First check the class of the race, have a quick look at the competitors at the head of the market and see which are in form and on the boil, check the class of the races.
    Next check if any of them are having any previous(last 2-3 runs) good form hidden.
    A quick look over the short list to see how many contenders we are looking at and then finally if any have the ability to beat the others.

    #310682

    leither
    Member
    • Total Posts 117

    1- First look at class of race.
    2- Check if any horses have won in that class
    3-Check which horses are on top of their form
    4-Look for good recent form
    Served me in good stead for many years and still get the same buzz each day long may it continue.

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