Fillies Mile 2017

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This topic contains 91 replies, has 20 voices, and was last updated by Nathan Hughes Nathan Hughes 1 month ago.

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  • #1321112
    CharlesOlney
    CharlesOlney
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    Uh, taking 25/1 about Quivery doesn’t look so sharp now that 33/1 is freely available after final decs. Never mind, I’m on so I’m on!

    I feel sorry for those who took the 5/2 and 9/4 about September thinking she would be the Ballydoyle banker and now she’s 6/1 and looking like a ‘making up the numbers’ type.

    #1321113
    Gingertipster
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    Fact Coolmore were thought to be relying on September and are now running both Happily and Magical, must be a negative for the former.

    value is everything
    #1321119
    Middle_Of_March
    Middle_Of_March
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    Uh, taking 25/1 about Quivery doesn’t look so sharp now that 33/1 is freely available after final decs. Never mind, I’m on so I’m on!

    I feel sorry for those who took the 5/2 and 9/4 about September thinking she would be the Ballydoyle banker and now she’s 6/1 and looking like a ‘making up the numbers’ type.

    O’Brien always sounded like he’d go with one of the two that ran in France to join September in fairness. Suprised he ran then both though. Three cracking bullets to fire at this race.

    She was always a bit short at 9/4 when it was likely one of the other two would run and that would make her drift. Of course, running both means she then drifts even further. 9/4 was too short with other rivals likely, but 6/1 is too big here. That’s my stance on the race.

    #1321125
    stevecaution
    stevecaution
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    Coral go 7/1 September now. How big does she need to get before it starts looking bad news bears?

    What's all the fuss about Estimate on the Racing Legends Stamps?

    There's always been a second rate Mare on them anyway 😉

    #1321133
    thejudge1
    thejudge1
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    Sorry Ignore my comments earlier, been too grouchy of late :unsure:

    #1321146

    ham
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    Coral go 7/1 September now. How big does she need to get before it starts looking bad news bears?

    Its always bad news when shes the least fancied of the obrien 3, but at 7/1 on better ground shes edging towards a decent e/w punt

    Only 3 horses have finished infront of her in 4 races and two of whom are in this race have done so twice, its common sense that bookmakers will try and push her out as far as they can under those circumstances

    • This reply was modified 1 month, 1 week ago by  ham.
    #1321187

    darren83
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    Hope Magic lily run well here as she my bet for oaks i started a thread for that.But doubt she beat AOB horses here

    #1321192
    thejudge1
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    Happily reminds me of Minding (no pun intended) as she has good tactical speed, is fairly solid and stays well

    But just not convinced she’s got quite the same star quality

    #1321233
    CharlesOlney
    CharlesOlney
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    Happily does indeed have a bit of Minding about her Judge.

    Quivery hit 40/1 in the ‘without Happily’ market with Paddy Power and that was enough to tempt me in with another each-way bet. If we assume Happily should be in the first 3 then I’m basically gaining an extra place I guess.

    #1321250
    Gingertipster
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    The Coolmore Horses:
    Happily has the best chance here. But on form there’s not much between her and Magical. Not as much as the betting suggests, anyway; one all. I backed Happily in the Moyglare when getting in front by only a short head. Am unconvinced she improved at all in the Lagadere. Looking in trouble while the second and third got into a battle; filly picking up the pieces. Maybe unimpressive due to leaving off the tongue tie (on again now). Magical was a little disappointing in the Boussac; but didn’t lead there and raced in between horses. May be front running suits her best? It’s also possible softer going is important, but 13/8 compared to 4/1… Does Happily really have almost double the chance of her stable companion? What about 15/2 September? Probably better than her last two performances on softer ground suggest. However, fact two stable companions have been diverted here suggest September hasn’t shown a great deal at home of late. That is a worry because she was so well fancied for the Chesham when successful. Only small and there’s a chance she hasn’t trained on.

    value is everything
    #1321252

    mickeyjp
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    Strongly fancy September. Will relish the mile and the better ground. I think the ground will be the key factor and it wouldn’t be that much of a shock for the third string to win for ballydoyle. I suspect if they weren’t chasing the record only one of magical or happily would be in the mix.

    #1321265
    Triptych
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    Hope Magic lily run well here as she my bet for oaks i started a thread for that.But doubt she beat AOB horses here

    Darren .. Magic Lily is my choice too and I’m really excited about seing her again tomorrow. She’s such a looker to just like her dad New Approach and OK she is up a lot in class on her last run but she could have progressed so much more since then.
    Keep the faith and we might be seeing a new favourite for the Guineas/Oaks next season :good:

    I think Magical will also run a good race tomorrow and could beat Happily so I am doing a
    Reverse Forecast

    Magic Lily
    Magical

    and keeping everything crossed that Magic Lily wins, I’ll be cheering her home for you..Jac :rose:

    Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...
    #1321273
    stevecaution
    stevecaution
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    Strongly fancy September. Will relish the mile and the better ground. I think the ground will be the key factor and it wouldn’t be that much of a shock for the third string to win for ballydoyle. I suspect if they weren’t chasing the record only one of magical or happily would be in the mix.

    I’ve laid September here. I feel that she would have faced a mile before now if that were such a big requirement for her. Four runs at 7F suggests Aidan is an amateur if he hasn’t worked out that she is in need of a mile before now.

    September is still only a Listed winner after 4 runs, rated 104, and probably actually only here to act as a pacemaker for the other two, I expect September to make it at a good lick, to let one of the other two come through.

    Happily won the Lagardere by staying on best last time. Magical was behind Wild Illusion in the Boussac and that filly was behind Efaadah the time before, yet Efaadah was six times the odds of the O’Brien filly earlier in the week.

    Maybe I have analysed this wrongly but I believe they will use September as the pacemaker here.

    What's all the fuss about Estimate on the Racing Legends Stamps?

    There's always been a second rate Mare on them anyway 😉

    #1321278

    ham
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    • Total Posts 684

    Ill give september another chance 6/1 is fair better ground she should be atleast closer

    cant see anything but obrien winning this race if the three of them run

    Forecasts/tris aswell

    Had a bit more on september at 15/2

    #1321280

    Pontisback
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    • Total Posts 46

    Betting suspended on Betfair. Checked oddschecker and Happily has been taken out of the betting. Presume she’s now a non runner. No news anywhere else

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