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I have grave concerns as to whether Coronet will have enough pace for the Epsom Oaks.
Over the years, the best runners to come out of the Zetland Stakes have been quite dour stayers. That stat is hardly shocking, because the Zetland Stakes is an end of season race for young horses, over 10 furlongs, which is a long way for 2yo’s, especially if it’s autumn ground.
Looking at the form of the Zetland, Coronet beat Cunco, the first of the Frankels to surface, but also one of the first to be ruled out as a 3yo prospect, with his trainer admitting fairly early that the January foal had probably already been as good as he was ever going to be.
The third horse is the Zetland had finished 5th in a Newcastle Nursery the time before and that race has worked out awfully since. The form leaves plenty to be desired, and while Coronet is unbeaten and can improve, you have to worry, in my opinion, about being targeted at The Zetland. I feel you need a filly with a bit of pace at Epsom and Minding demonstrated that last year, as she sailed by some slow looking fillies despite a very troubled passage on the way. You feel she would have sauntered home with a clear run.
I’ve done Promise To Be True because I felt she looked a filly to come into her own at 10F plus. Aidan seemed obsessed with seeing if she is a Guineas filly though and we never got to see her at a true testing mile last year. Sometimes the French races are a sprint and after the Boussac, I could not believe my eyes that O’Brien dropped her to 7F at Saint Cloud next time. Whatever the thinking, she got stuffed by Thunder Snow, in a race where I did South Seas against what I considered a bad favourite in the Ballydoyle filly at 15/8. South Seas beat Promise To Be True but was 5 lengths in arrears of Thunder Snow who won an egg and spoon race at Meydan reasonably recently, storming away from a poor looking challenge.
Overall, I feel that was a race Promise To Be True could have done without, in France, in the Fag end of October, on Halloween’s Eve. For me there are more negatives than positives with her, certainly when you think back to how Minding finished her season off with a statement performance that had Guineas/Oaks winner written all over it. (Had the double 8/1, thanks Minding)
Wuheida has done nowt wrong, I noted her over on the 2yo thread after her debut as a filly to follow and she duly won the Boussac. The slight worry for me is that the Spatial/Sobetsu form line, which looked hot at one time, unpicked rather spectacularly behind Rhododendron when they were both bitterly disappointing. I would also ask whether Wuheida will definitely get a mile and a half?
Of the once raced one’s Shutter Speed is a promising Dansili filly for John Gosden but the one who looked a good dark horse for me over the winter is by none other than Frankel. Trained by Luca Cumani, Aljezeera probably didn’t do a lot when a cosy winner over a mile at Doncaster in mid August but it was the style of the win that promised a lot for the future. She won in the style of a filly who will get at least 10F this season and she has a good chance of getting the Oaks trip. Cumani is legendary for his patience and improvement and horses with lower ratings than the 81 Aljezeera is on have burst into Oaks contention the following spring.
33/1 for Aljezeera seemed worth an investment to me. Bubbles will burst this spring and horses like Fair Eva will not get the Oaks trip in a Ferrari, so there is far worse value all over the list.
Here is Aljezeera winning on her debut, she looks a filly of substance and she is in my 20 3YO’s to follow this season. She is also entered in the 1000 Guineas
http://www.attheraces.com/atrplayer-replay-popup/VOD/947679
The Oaks Aljezeera 33/1 (Frankel-Dynaforce) (Luca Cumani)
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Thank you Steve for your very detailed statement, you are really such a great analyser as they say (when I first posted here you just had taken your break).
I agree with you that Coronet’s greatest quality is her stamina, but for me that doesn’t exclude her beeing speedy.Aljezeera not entered in 1000G, entries released today
I suspect she hasn’t got the necessary pace and experience for Newmarket. I would imagine Chester or York will be the plan for her on the way to the Oaks.
Coronet looked even less like a Guineas filly. It would be highly unusual for a filly who ran over 10F at 2yo to be competitive against 7F 2yo’s at Classic level the following season. John Gosden is a realist who won’t waste time at inappropriate distances.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Thank you Steve for your very detailed statement, you are really such a great analyser as they say (when I first posted here you just had taken your break).
I agree with you that Coronet’s greatest quality is her stamina, but for me that doesn’t exclude her beeing speedy.I have watched that Zetland Stakes for a lot of years and it always seems to throw up real dour stayers. That combined to Epsom being a course where tactical versatility can be important and horses seem to be able to get away with it on the stamina front, can lean towards the ones stepping up from a mile being that bit handier in the race.
There was a school of thought with Golden Horn in the Derby that he couldn’t get the trip on breeding but I thought he had a better racing style about him than Benny The Dip, who just managed to last home and so it proved, for the admittedly classier Golden Horn.
Good luck with her though, sometimes these horses surprise you.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I like Wuheida for this and the guineas. A very solid filly and not convinced about the O’Brien filly who won the fillies mile, think she’s far too short.
One horse I like the look of is Prosper, of Roger Varian’s. Very well-bred + she won what I think was a very strong maiden on her only start to date.
She runs today in a handicap at Chelmsford off 78 (5.10pm). Clearly if she’s running in a Chelmsford h’cap, she’s no Oaks horse, but she’s 4/1 + I think that’s mighty generous.
How good that maiden was, I’m not sure. Maybe she’s bumped into a good horse, but the 3rd was pretty close. Her stride seemed quite long and might need further.
Had insurance on the SFC. Was the only alternative result I could see + had it to cover my stake on Prosper, plus a little extra.
With the Oaks very open I have decided to back Shutter Speed before she runs today. I heard positive vibes for her earlier in the year and there seems confidence behind her today.
You would assume the Oaks will be on the agenda if she does well today.
At 16/1 now, it’s almost possible a good show would see her near favourite.
Shutter Speed, first serious bullet for the Oaks for me 16/1
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
8/1 is the best price on Shutter Speed after winning easily from Raheen House.
She was keen early but travelled into the race well, quickened up to take it up and stayed on strongly.
John Gosden said the Musidora is a possibility and that was where Star Of Seville went for the stable when she landed today’s race in 2015. Star Of Seville famously ran out of petrol and scraped home at York but Shutter Speed looks an assured stayer.
Frankie said the filly shapes more like an Oaks contender than a Guineas one. He also said she has more speed than Gracious Diana who won later on today’s card.
6/1 JF with Rhododendron in some lists she must be a leading contender for now. Connections said the filly won on soft last year but loved the better ground today. The second home was 4th in the Racing Post Trophy last season and he came here rated 110. Shutter Speed has beaten him by a shade further than Rivet did in the Group 1 Doncaster race.
As Droopy would say “I’m happy”
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
With the Oaks very open I have decided to back Shutter Speed before she runs today. I heard positive vibes for her earlier in the year and there seems confidence behind her today.
You would assume the Oaks will be on the agenda if she does well today.
At 16/1 now, it’s almost possible a good show would see her near favourite.
Shutter Speed, first serious bullet for the Oaks for me 16/1
Lovely bit of foresight there Stevie well done! I was there today and I am pretty sure you have backed the winner of the Oaks. I have her at 8’s now and am certain she will go off a lot shorter than that. She is a beautiful looking filly and I was really impressed with how easily she got there She is bound to improve a lot for that and let’s not forget she has beaten a 110 rated colt easily. Very nice indeed.
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Personally I wasn’t too taken with either of Gosden’s physically but Shutter Speed was sheer quality out on the course. I think the form is pretty good as I do rate Raheen House and he looked much improved from last year. I imagine he will be better over further given his full brother has been tried over nearly 2 miles.
At 8/1 and given she’ll take all the beating at York she still looks attractive ante-post. If the favourite is turned over in the Guineas then who knows how the market will react.
I think to say that you’re sure Joni that Shutter Speed is the winner of the Oaks is jumping the gun somewhat, to say the least.
We haven’t even seen the 1000 guineas yet not to mention all of the most relevant Oaks trials.
Still very promising and who knows what she could go on to achieve. Reminds me a bit of Passage of Time which was a good un for Henry Cecil some years back.
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