Oaks 2017

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This topic contains 292 replies, has 33 voices, and was last updated by  Sunspangled 1 year, 3 months ago.

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  • #1260340
    botchy1
    botchy1
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    • Total Posts 2312

    A long range dart has been launched on Promise To Be True @ 25’s to win.

    Kept on well to win 7F race at Leopardstown a month ago despite running very green.

    Holds an entry in the G2 Debutante Stakes on Sunday. 😉

    #1260380
    stevecaution
    stevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8298

    I backed Promise To Be True for the Oaks a while back but I’m not too enamoured with the way the form of her first race has been working out. The runner up has been absolutely awful since then and it’s not what I’d been hoping for.

    I am hoping that she will show better form once she gets to race at a mile this year and that she will make big strides for tackling middle distances next year. I was just hoping for a bit more encouragement from her form.

    I had to chuckle when bookies put Fair Eva in as 16/1 favourite for the Oaks. There must be some right gullible punters out there.

    Promise To Be True is a late foal whose best days should be next summer, I thought 25/1 was the early value. She’s rated 100 by RPR but I’d be a bit dubious of the strength of that for now.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1260386
    Nathan Hughes
    Nathan Hughes
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 19342

    I was taken by Promise To Be True as well and put her in as a selection in the Ante Post comp for next years Oaks. A bit of a worry reading Steve’s post about the form but she looks like a next year horse who has potential at a distance.

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #1263581

    darren83
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4454

    CORONET 33/1

    Won at Leicester few weeks ago show nice burst of speed had race won fell a kip final 50 yards.Won well after race Gosden say he looking forward to seeing her over 1m4 and for me she intrests me a lot.For Oaks

    #1265421
    botchy1
    botchy1
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2312

    Great run from PTBT there in what might prove to be a top class race. Looks all over an Oaks filly at this stage.

    Topped up at 20’s

    #1265461

    Sunspangled
    Participant
    • Total Posts 470

    Great run from PTBT there in what might prove to be a top class race. Looks all over an Oaks filly at this stage.

    Topped up at 20’s

    When she got going and stretched out, there was shades of Found in the same race two years ago.

    #1265465
    botchy1
    botchy1
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2312

    That’s what i thought

    Topped up again @ 20’s. Certainly a G1 filly for me.

    Really impressed by the Gosden horse as well in that race. She seemed obliged to make the pace and never really settled.

    #1266366

    darren83
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4454

    Happy with CORONET yesterday nice performance by her she one to look forward to next year

    #1266451
    thejudge1
    thejudge1
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    • Total Posts 2255

    No love for Wuheida? Looks as honest as they come.

    #1266452
    thejudge1
    thejudge1
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    • Total Posts 2255

    Will this promise to be true get the trip? I know the sire is a strong influence for stamina, but the mare didn’t run beyond five furlongs. Her full sister Maybe didn’t win as a three year old which is also slightly off-putting and was beaten into fifth in the Oaks.

    I would have even more reservations about Rhodedenron as her dam was also a sprinter and she shows bundles of speed, more than Promise to be true who at least shapes like a stayer.

    I realize that taking on Ballydoyle fillies is rather like banging your head against the wall at the moment, but taking them on in the Oaks next year seems to be based on more credible logic than taking them on in next years guineas, where their claims are extremely obvious.

    • This reply was modified 1 year, 11 months ago by thejudge1 thejudge1.
    #1266454
    botchy1
    botchy1
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2312

    No love for Wuheida? Looks as honest as they come.

    Good horse no doubt, just the connections behind the horse give me no confidence at all.

    Watching the Boussac my conclusions are –

    PTBT would of won that race in another furlong without a doubt off a stronger pace.

    A long way to go and probably Evens none of them make the race, but for my money PTBT could be potentially an exceptional middle distance horse next year. :heart:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kb6tSy8Oulg

    Looking at the race just now the 4th horse Senga finished with a fair old rattle as well

    • This reply was modified 1 year, 11 months ago by botchy1 botchy1.
    #1266463
    thejudge1
    thejudge1
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2255

    No love for Wuheida? Looks as honest as they come.

    Good horse no doubt, just the connections behind the horse give me no confidence at all.

    Watching the Boussac my conclusions are –

    PTBT would of won that race in another furlong without a doubt off a stronger pace.

    A long way to go and probably Evens none of them make the race, but for my money PTBT could be potentially an exceptional middle distance horse next year. :heart:

    <iframe width=”1170″ height=”658″ src=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/kb6tSy8Oulg?feature=oembed” frameborder=”0″ allowfullscreen=””></iframe>

    Looking at the race just now the 4th horse Senga finished with a fair old rattle as well

    I’d agree with most of that except “and probably Evens none of them make the race,”

    To me that’s a cliche that posters use but is very rarely true. Probably if you have a horse that looks like it will be aimed at a race by connections, then there’s only about a five percent chance that it will get injured before the race. Of course there’s also the risk that it may run in a trial, get beaten and then the connections will realize it’s not good enough and aim it elsewhere, but then it wouldn’t have been good enough to win anyway.

    • This reply was modified 1 year, 11 months ago by thejudge1 thejudge1.
    • This reply was modified 1 year, 11 months ago by thejudge1 thejudge1.
    • This reply was modified 1 year, 11 months ago by thejudge1 thejudge1.
    #1266476
    botchy1
    botchy1
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2312

    I’d agree with most of that except “and probably Evens none of them make the race,”

    To me that’s a cliche that posters use but is very rarely true. Probably if you have a horse that looks like it will be aimed at a race by connections, then there’s only about a five percent chance that it will get injured before the race. Of course there’s also the risk that it may run in a trial, get beaten and then the connections will realize it’s not good enough and aim it elsewhere, but then it wouldn’t have been good enough to win anyway.

    [/quote]

    Just in my experience of backing horses 9 months before a race. If i back 2, then 1 will get injured and the other wont be good enough.

    I can even do that a week before the race :whistle:

    #1266484
    thejudge1
    thejudge1
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2255

    Yes maybe. I just don’t think it’s something that I would worry about. I back them and if they run they run, and if they don’t I’m not really bothered. Which I’m sure you do as well. Just in my own experience the whole “They must be this and this a price to even get there” is a cliche that’s overused, with very little science behind it. The only way you could tell is to keep a record of what are the winter favourites for the oaks, say over a ten year period, and then compare that with who runs on the day of the race to get a better idea.

    As for the running on thing, I think that’s something that’s also overblown. Punter’s love horses that run on at the death and assume they will turn it around, especially over a longer distance, but that isn’t always the case. It also conveniently overlooks the fact they lacked the cruising speed to lay up in the first place.

    For example I recall Lush Lashes running on strongly in the 1000 guineas, she then won the Musidora, but fell in a hole halfway up the Epsom straight. She was also like Promise to be true by Galileo. And she wasn’t as speedily bred on the dam side. In fact she stayed a mile and a half later in her career but lacked the conditioning for the oaks.

    My argument would be that I would fancy Wuheida to stay the oaks distance more than Promise to be true, because she’s much more stoutly bred on the dam’s side. Set against that though is O’Brien’s outstanding record in big races of late compared to Godolphin’s dismal record.

    #1289545

    darren83
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4454

    Any views on this race guys the one race over the years where late developers been doing well apart from last year when MINDING won who had quite a few races at 2

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