Derby 2018

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This topic contains 416 replies, has 50 voices, and was last updated by Gingertipster Gingertipster 2 months, 1 week ago.

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  • #1356781
    Tonge
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    Good spot Steve C. Bandua looks an unlikely candidate on paper but I can’t see Mr Weld forking out unless he thought it was worthwhile.

    #1362282
    stevecaution
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    Well, Mark Johnston’s Dee Ex Bee has done a pretty poor job of upholding the Derby Form.

    He came into the race rated 110 on RPR and earned a rise of 9 lbs to 119, pretty much the usual logic that a Classic MUST be a good race, seemed to be the reason for the rise.

    Looking at his RPRs for races this season before and after the Derby, we see the following sequence:-

    98, 110, 119, 110, 110

    Doesn’t it just look like he’s been steady at his own level and was overrated for the Derby?

    Today he was beaten again, this time by a handicap winner rated 108 and the margin was four and a half lengths.

    The official handicapper had him on 118, up eight pounds for his Epsom run, but had already dropped him 2lbs coming into today. Surely he needs to be thinking of knocking some more off the 116 he currently sits at?

    I suspect Johnston needs to be thinking about stepping him up in trip and it will no doubt be a concern that the horse is now available at 16/1 for the St Leger, having been as short as 4/1 at one stage.

    With Masar out and Saxon Warrior and Roaring Lion fighting out a weak Eclipse in a display that seemed to suggest they were much of a muchness in talent terms. It doesn’t look a great Derby and it would not surprise me if today’s winner Cross Counter (Sadly a gelding) were to end up the best of his age group at a decent trip.

    The winner today may go to the Melbourne Cup while the ever optimistic Mark Johnston feels the ground was too fast for Dee Ex Bee and that he could be in the shake up of a soft ground Leger. My worry is that Dee Ex Bee’s best win was in a 12 grand race at Epsom on heavy and he finished in front of 3 non stayers and a slow boat at Epsom again in the Derby.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1362385
    Gingertipster
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    How can Dee Ex Bee’s Epsom form be downgraded? :unsure: Horses are not machines and a lot need a special set of circumstances in order to show their best form.

    I would’ve thought going and stamina are the obvious things Dee Ex Bee now needs. Indeed, by the way he ran it was obvious on Derby day itself Dee Ex Bee would need a stamina test in order to match that run. Epsom Derby was a truly run 1m4f with give in the ground. In three starts since, Dee Ex Bee is yet to have those two circumstances come together in another race. Although going could be the reason Dee Ex Bee travelled far better in the Derby than in Ireland, France or Goodwood; it’s also possible temperament is an issue. If so he will never show that form again. But even if that is the case, no reason to doubt Epsom form when pretty much evreything else is working out. It’s not as if he got loose on the lead at Epsom, neither was he dropped out the back off an overly strong pace. ie What valid reason is there to believe he was flattered in relation to the other principles? :unsure: Therefore, if Dee Ex Bee did run only to 110 in the Derby (as you claim, Steve) then Masar, Roaring Lion and Saxon Warrior’s ratings must also come down by the same margin… And what has happened to those horses both since and before the Derby?

    Masar hasn’t run since – injured. Saxon Warrior (the horse beaten 4 1/2 lenths by the Epsom Derby winner) was only beaten 3/4 length in the Irish version. ie English Derby form very much upheld by SW not being beaten as far in Ireland. Indeed, unless Saxon Warrior was a lot better at The Curragh – even though Dee Ex Bee ran poorly there, the Johnston horse can still be rated in front of winner Latrobe. Finishing 2 1/4 lengths further in front of Saxon Warrior at Epsom than Latrobe did in Ireland.

    You say the Eclipse was “weak”, why?
    Saxon Warrior finished 4th at Epsom, one place and 2 1/2 lengths behind Roaring Lion. Roaring Lion won the Eclipse next time out, by a neck from Saxon Warrior. So the Epsom third beats the Epsom 4th in the Eclipse – and it wasn’t as if the others were only just behind them. Some 2 1/2 lengths clear of the third Cliffs Of Moher who had come from finishing 3 3/4 behind Crystal Ocean. COM in turn 1 1/4 and 1/2 lengths in front of proven Group 1 animals Hawkbill and Happily. Crystal Ocean came within a whisker of King George glory on his next start. Safe to say Saxon Warrior is better at 10f than he is 12.

    Not as if the other principles hadn’t shown plenty before Epsom. Saxon Warrior won the 2000 and racing Post Trophy. Masar had run away with the Craven before placed in the 2000. Latter and Roaring Lion likely disadvantaged at Newmarket by racing nearer the stand side. Roaring Lion has had a lot to learn about racing too, growing up with every run.

    If Dee Ex Bee’s rating should come down to 110 then Masar, Roaring Lion, Saxon Warrior (and a lot of the other related form lines too) needs to come down by around 9 lbs too… And if around 9 lbs worse then it would’ve been highly unlikely if not impossible Masar, Roaring Lion and Saxon Warrior would’ve done what they have previously and subsequently.

    For someone who believed Saxon Warrior the second coming before Epsom, Steve; your opinion now seems to be he was the worst Guineas winner in recent history, despite beating the Derby winner and third.

    It’s not as if anyone is saying it was a great Derby anyway.

    Racing Post have under-estimated Cross Conter’s winning performance in the Gordon and as a consequence under-rated Dee Ex Bee’s. Take the Derby performance out and everyone would be talking about how Dee Ex Bee’s Goodwood performance – being pushed along early and staying on late – is crying out for the St Leger. 16/1 is massive! :yes:

    • This reply was modified 2 months, 2 weeks ago by Gingertipster Gingertipster.
    • This reply was modified 2 months, 2 weeks ago by Gingertipster Gingertipster.
    value is everything
    #1362478
    stevecaution
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    Cliffs Of Moher is inconsistent and disappointing. Happily is also disappointing this season. Aidan is not having his best season thus far.

    The same horses fighting it out is not enhancing the form.

    The general feeling was that Saxon Warrior and Roaring Lion did not stay at Epsom. Their 10F form has little to do with a 12F race at Epsom. It’s a notorious track to trust.

    The rating for Dee Ex Bee at Epsom looks inflated but we can’t use that to take down ratings for a different race, at a different track, over a different distance on different going. That would be folly.

    I am qualified in Mathematics, including statistics, to University level. I know what an outlier looks like.

    Why not, just for once, let people read and form their OWN opinions on something I have said.

    Good luck with the Leger. Dee Ex Bee is a 2/11 horse in his career and I don’t like low strike rate horses myself.

    By the way, I didn’t say Dee Ex Bee had to go down to 110 immediately, that was just his highest RPR before and after the Derby where he scored 119. What I said was that the official handicapper gave Dee Ex Bee 118 for the Derby, then took him down to 116, and that I felt another drop was justified.

    Lo and Behold, the official handicapper has whipped another 2 lbs off and he is now rated 114. Seems like someone agreed with MY assessment of the situation.

    Of course you always think YOU are correct, so no doubt the official handicapper is wrong, I am wrong and the whole of the rest of the world is wrong. If Dee Ex Bee fails again and is dropped further it will be because there was something wrong with him. The Epsom race will always be the one where he ran to form, despite it being notorious for not suiting plenty of horses.

    I am happy with the assessment I gave. The Official Handicapper and The Racing Post both awarded Dee Ex Bee less than he achieved at Epsom. I do not feel I have misled forum readers with my honest opinion and what’s more Saxon Warrior not reaching the level I had hoped for has zero relevance, other than being a dig at me in an attempt to devalue my input.

    Not sticking to your own thread for very long then. That’s why we would never get on. You don’t live up to your word but I do realise that it can’t be helped sometimes I just wish you would have a look about and see that others in the industry are agreeing with my opinion and that just occasionally it might be worthy of some modicum of respect.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1362484
    Degaussed
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    Cross Counter put up a Timeform Time Figure of 124, which is the single best performance by a 3yo colt this season in their figures. Using RP’s own ratings calculator, that would put Dee Ex Bee running to a RPR of 117, close to his best form. I get that the Handicapper and RP have taken a dimmer view of the form, so I guess it depends on which ratings you think are more likely to be accurate.

    #1362487
    Gingertipster
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    Don’t be so paranoid, Steve. This has got to stop.

    Please read my post again.
    You’ve put your own point of view about Dee Ex Bee, which you are perfectly entitled to. Am sure some do agree with your opinion of Dee Ex Bee, I don’t. That’s all. For goodness sake don’t take every difference of opinion as an insult, I know you think it is, but it’s not all about you, it’s your opinion am disagreeing with.

    In the post above I’ve only explained my point of view about the horse… which is the opposite view to yours. Therefore, to explain my opinion about the horse I have to explain why I believe you are wrong.

    This is a public horse racing forum and people are entitled to disagree with your opinion (and explain why they disagree) without getting abuse from you. :rose:

    After getting the 2 year old thread back on track, I have kept away. In that section am keeping to my thread (and an occasional post in friendly people’s DLAP threads. Unfortunately for some, I will be writing posts in the Horse Racing and Big Races sections too. You’ve got Trends, Research and Notebooks including the 2 year old thread to yourself, a thread you yourself said YOU were keeping to.

    When Jack welcomed you back to the forum in the 2 year old thread, you responded with:
    “I’ll only be posting on this thread on occasion Jack and only then until I can be confirmed as a Cat fosterer”.

    Hope that doesn’t mean the cat project is off. If so can understand your mood. Personally am glad you’re now posting on other threads/sections; shame you don’t feel the same about me. I do respect you, Steve; if only that was reciprocated. Just don’t be a hypocrite accusing me of doing something you’re doing. :bye:

    • This reply was modified 2 months, 1 week ago by Gingertipster Gingertipster.
    • This reply was modified 2 months, 1 week ago by Gingertipster Gingertipster.
    • This reply was modified 2 months, 1 week ago by Gingertipster Gingertipster.
    value is everything
    #1362494
    Middle_Of_March
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    Does anyone finally agree with me now that it’s a poor crop of 3 year old colts this season? Over both the 1m 4f distance and, even more so, for the milers.

    I did say this before even the Guineas in May remember. It just looked like a poor crop to my eye.

    #1362496
    Gingertipster
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    I think Masar won an average Derby, MOM. Masar (if all is well with him), Roaring Lion and possibly Saxon Warrior (if it’s more to do with stable form) and Sea Of Class – all still have potential to be better than average. Without Parole ran so badly something must imo have been wrong, hope he can show what I thought he was capable of before the Sussex. One who certainly is above average is Alpha Centauri. Other than that, agree with you the three year olds don’t look up to much.

    • This reply was modified 2 months, 1 week ago by Gingertipster Gingertipster.
    value is everything
    #1362498
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    If Steve doesn’t want to respond, can anyone give a reason why Dee Ex Bee was flattered in getting so close to Masar in the Derby?

    Yes, he could be an outlier, but (the point of my earlier post) if an outlier there must be a reason for it.

    • This reply was modified 2 months, 1 week ago by Gingertipster Gingertipster.
    value is everything
    #1362501
    Nathan Hughes
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    Why do you edit your posts so much ginge…?
    If you were a non live news reporter it would be “cut” “take 6”

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #1362503
    Gingertipster
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    Cliffs Of Moher is inconsistent and disappointing. Happily is also disappointing this season. Aidan is not having his best season thus far.

    If by “disappointing” you mean he’s not won, then yes. But as ratings go, no.
    Cliffs Of Moher imo hasn’t been that bad. I’d only use the word “disappointed” to describe one of his last five races. In the Prince Of Wales Stakes; where I got the impression connections regretted declaring him – (dropped out the back and barely put in the race) 11 lengths behind the winner.
    May not have run to the exact same mark on each of the other four occasions, but not much in it.
    Running a lot better three days later in the Hardwicke to be only 3 3/4 lengths behind Crystal Ocean. Not a bad effort given what the winner did subsequently.
    Before Ascot he was 2 lengths second to stablemate Lancaster Bomber in the Tatts Gold Cup. Which although probably wasn’t up to Cliffs Of Moher’s very best, was a decent effort considering gave the winner so much rope.
    Before that, won the Group 2 Mooresbridge with something to spare.
    2 3/4 lengths behind Roaring Lion in the Eclipse is imo how good Cliffs Of Moher is.

    Happily hasn’t improved and therefore hasn’t done what some thought her capable of as rivals progressed past her. So in that respect has disappointed some people, but has run pretty much to her two year old form. Two year old Group 1’s are rarely won with a rating as good as three year old Group 1’s. Happily hasn’t won in Group 1 company at three, but got within half a length of winning one in the Prix De Diane after having to wait and switch for a run… That’s Happily’s level and it came on her run immediately before the Eclipse. Given how The Heff seemed to be thinking more about disadvantaging Roaring Lion by keeping him wide than actually winning the race for himself… Not surprising Happily wasn’t at her very best, but 4 1/2 lengths behind Roaring Lion imo isn’t far behind it.

    value is everything
    #1362505
    Gingertipster
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    Why do you edit your posts so much ginge…?
    If you were a non live news reporter it would be “cut” “take 6”

    Because I read the post back – especially an important one – several times and change it if thinking it’s best to do so. Sometimes it’s only to put in a comma. Sometimes I need to look something up and use a quote from another thread. Sometimes I just think of something else I should’ve said.

    I’m not a non-live news reporter.
    We can’t all get it right first time, Nathan.

    oops, I did it again. LOL

    • This reply was modified 2 months, 1 week ago by Gingertipster Gingertipster.
    value is everything
    #1362511
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    The general feeling was that Saxon Warrior and Roaring Lion did not stay at Epsom. Their 10F form has little to do with a 12F race at Epsom. It’s a notorious track to trust.

    …And the general feeling after the Derby was that Dee Ex Bee needed the test of stamina a truly run race together with give in the ground allowed. Ireland, France and Goodwood haven’t had both of those two things together. Seems strange to me you’re dismissing the stamina excuse for DXB and yet play the “didn’t stay” card with Saxon Warrior and Roaring Lion here.

    Yes, Saxon Warrior and Roaring Lion are better at 10 than 12f. But even if they both improved a little at Sandown – it’s still imo a plus for the Epsom race that the third and fourth there proved good enough to fight out the Eclipse… And in doing so didn’t just scrape through; proving much too good for their rivals in finishing clear… Which in turn means both RR and SW can be rated a fair way in front of Cliffs Of Moher and Happily.

    value is everything
    #1362512
    Gingertipster
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    By the way, I didn’t say Dee Ex Bee had to go down to 110 immediately, that was just his highest RPR before and after the Derby where he scored 119. What I said was that the official handicapper gave Dee Ex Bee 118 for the Derby, then took him down to 116, and that I felt another drop was justified.

    Lo and Behold, the official handicapper has whipped another 2 lbs off and he is now rated 114. Seems like someone agreed with MY assessment of the situation.

    You said in your previous post:

    Looking at his RPRs for races this season before and after the Derby, we see the following sequence:-

    98, 110, 119, 110, 110

    Doesn’t it just look like he’s been steady at his own level and was overrated for the Derby?

    If DXB has been “steady at his own level and was overrated”, that sounded to me as though you were saying he should come down to his own steady level of 110.

    Can you see now why I thought you were saying Dee Ex Bee had to go down to 110 immediately? ie If he’s been “steady at his own level” of 110, then why would it be ok to rate him 114? You did not mention 114, only the steady level of 110.

    If I misunderstood then fair enough, I was just going by what you said. :rose:

    • This reply was modified 2 months, 1 week ago by Gingertipster Gingertipster.
    value is everything
    #1362513
    Gingertipster
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    Of course you always think YOU are correct,

    If I didn’t think I am correct then my opinion would not be my opinion. 😉

    value is everything
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