Enable to stay in training 2018

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This topic contains 37 replies, has 8 voices, and was last updated by Gingertipster Gingertipster 2 days, 8 hours ago.

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  • #1321259
    Voleur
    Voleur
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    Ginger you have made this beyond convoluted, in support of an argument that I’m not sure you fully believe yourself. Your words here make it seem like you are arguing simply for arguments sake:

    It’s very difficult to judge one year against another. Always possible to look at any form and drag it down a pound or two (as I’ve shown above). I don’t know whether Gosden’s filly is better than Treve or Zarkava or Danedream; but – unlike those three -I do know Enable can already be rated exceptional on more than one performance and remains in training! Something to look forward to and celebrate.

    You say that you don’t understand my argument but I’m still not sure what it is exactly you are arguing? I am making a case that Enable’s Arc should equate to Danedream’s on 132, but what is your point exactly? That all of Treve’s, Zarkava’s and Danedream’s Arc’s are overrated?

    You’ve just given the evidence that supports that claim, Voleur.
    If the form rating Shareta was able to run to was as you say “no doubt aided by having the run of the race at the front”, then it stands to reason those coming from the back and/or held up were at a positional disadvantage compared to both Shareta and anything else ridden more prominently. Therefore if horses are at a positional disadvantage it’s impossible for them to run to their best form. Or to put it another way: Compared to what you’d expect on “form”, Snow Fairy and So You Think’s position (in lengths) will not be as good in relation to those coming from a better position (Shareta and Danedream).

    Ginger I absolutely have not. Just because one horse benefits from running near the pace doesn’t mean every horse would. As I have said So You Think was a 10f horse and had a lot of pace, coming from the back would have ensured him the best possible finishing place. If So You Think had raced more prominently he most likely would have finished lower than 4th, as his stamina would have failed when going toe to toe with the proper 12f horses in Danedream, Shareta and Snow Fairy.

    It’s not as black and white as you make it out to be Ginger, as you say comparing years is very difficult. Basically you are saying that because the horses who filled the places in this years Arc all raced prominently, means that racing prominently would have ensured similar results in Danedream’s Arc 7 years ago? Pretty absurd in my opinion. Also Cloth of Stars and Snow Fairy had nearly identical positioning in their respective Arcs, so again, using that to crab the form doesn’t add up.

    Now, I said Shareta benefitted from being raced prominently. That does not, under any circumstances, mean that So You Think nor Snow Fairy would have benefitted from doing similarly. If you watch Shareta’s two other highest rated performances, in the Vermeille and Yorkshire Oaks, you will noticed that she also raced very prominently. She is clearly a horse that benefits from being shown daylight and being allowed to bowl along in front. It is no coincidence that Shareta’s three best performances came from racing prominently. Likewise, it is no coincidence that Snow Fairy’s best performances – Epsom Oaks, Irish Oaks – came from racing off the pace. Of course a slowly run race can change the effectiveness of this drastically, but of course as we know Danedream’s Arc was the second fastest ever ran. Therefore coming from off the pace could only have been a benefit to Snow Fairy, and more importantly, the 10f horse So You Think.

    Yes, So You Think’s best form was at 10f, another reason why he was below form at 12f.

    That is my point exactly with Ulysses Ginger, he is a 10f horse who finished closer to Enable than So You Think did to Danedream, yet Enable’s win is rated higher. So You Think is undoubtedly better over 10f, as is Ulysses. Danedream stamped her authority over the 10f horse better than Enable did, yet you maintain Enable’s win was 2lbs superior. Again Ginger, I am making a case that both their Arc’s should be rated equally. I’m still not sure what you are trying to do except tear down Danedream’s.

    As for Zarkava, I never put her win in the Vermeille in the same bracket as the Arc. I do think it is was exceptional, whereas you believe she “only had one stand out perfroamce.”

    Come on Ginger, if handicapping races was only as simple as measuring the amount of lengths between them at the finish line then we wouldn’t have to pay experts to do it for us. Zarkava’s win in the Vermeille was exceptional for a multitude of reasons. She missed the break by 4 or 5 lengths, which for a lesser horse would have spelt the end (see Brametot in this years D’ornano Stakes). Coming around the home turn she had 30 odd lengths to make up on the leader, and while she was a hold up horse, even her staunchest supported must have worried she had left herself too much to do. Dar Re Mi, who was officially rated 120 at the time, I’m not sure of her TFR, was positioned perfectly to kick for home. Yet Zarkava swept passed them all, without barely coming off the bridle. She was actually eased down in the final few strides to score by 2 lengths. Figures alone could never put a worthy evaluation on that performance Ginger, not by a long way.

    If that win wasn’t exceptional, I don’t know what is.

    https://youtu.be/k6_qOiftzys

    In fact, I believe you should watch this video Ginger. Amid the commentators delirious French shouting, you can make out one word clearer than the rest; “exceptionnel.”

    Vive la France. B-)

    #1321272
    Gingertipster
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    Velour,
    You’ve vastly exaggerated a performance, Zarkava did not miss the break by “4 to 5 lengths” (it was in fact less) and losing lengths at the start does not directly mean you can add that many lengths to a winning performance, anyway. Neither was she “Coming around the home turn she had 30 odd lengths to make up on the leader”. Therefore am not surprised you have an exaggerated view of how the winner should be rated.

    In 7 races out of 9 from 22nd August 2008 to November 2009 Dar Re Mi ran to a Timeform performance rating of either 118 or 119, including in the vermaille (September 2008). Therefore, it is highly unlikely Dar Re Mi’s performance was any better than 119. Michita given a Timeform performance rating of 113 for that race – her best rating – ran to either 110 and 111 in three races that year. So Zarkava beat a horse rated 119 by 1 1/2 lengths… And beat a horse rated 113 by a total of 3 1/2 lengths. On distances alone Zarkava is only a 121 performance rating. But as you rightly say, it is not about distances alone…

    – What is your definition of an “exceptional” rating? Mine is for a male horse to have a Timeform Master Rating of 135+ and a female 132+. –

    …So the question is:
    How much more than 121 is Zarkava’s Vermaille running worth for her Master Timeform Rating?
    Or to put it another way:
    How many more lengths (than 1 1/2) would she have won by without being positionally disadvantaged? 4? 5? 8? 11?

    Yes, I believe Zarkava’s Master Timeform Rating after the Vermaille should be better than 121, but not as much as 132. So although very good, it can not imo be rated as exceptional.

    value is everything
    #1321275
    Voleur
    Voleur
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    It was in fact 4 lengths, as per the Racing Post website. Not “in fact less”, as you claim. I never once said missing lengths at the start can simply be added onto the winning distance, but missing 4 lengths – I reiterate, 4 lengths – would put most horses at an irreversible disadvantage, and it has to be factored into the rating.

    I don’t think 30 lengths is an exaggeration, have you watched a replay of the race? I’ll admit that was a complete guess, but I’d wager I’m not far off. Whatever the correct distance, the visual impression you get would suggest that nothing but an exceptional performance would see her win in that situation. Bearing in mind she had an extra 4 lengths to make up from the start to begin with.

    A 3 year old filly officially rated 120 is a top-class filly, for comparison Winter is rated 119 over a mile. For Zarkava to come from where she did, after the start she had, and to win with so much in hand at the line, I would put that performance at 130 in TFR.

    Unlike you I have no set parameters for what I deem ‘exceptional,’ there are so many variables at play in each race that what I consider exceptional is completely relative. I’m going to be a little expedient here and say that in and around 130+ would probably make up the ‘exceptional’ category for me. Yes she only won by two lengths, but how many lengths would she have had to surrender at the start for her to lose the race? A lot more than 4 I reckon.

    Like Nwalton said earlier in the thread, you never find out how good horses like Zarkava are ratings-wise until they are beaten.

    #1321276
    Voleur
    Voleur
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    I’d like to add that Zarkava equalled the course record for the Vermeille that day, even after surrendering those contentious 4 lengths. What’s more impressive still, is that it was on Good to Soft ground, although French officials have been known to get that wrong. Regardless, it gives further credence to what was without a doubt an exceptional performance.

    #1321277
    Gingertipster
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    One can not be “advantaged” by something without someone else being “disadvantaged”.

    You yourself say Shareta was aided by having the run of the race from the front.
    Therefore, others were disadvanged by that said advantage to varying degrees, depending on how far away they were from the horse who was positionally advantaged.

    Without that disadvantage I believe Snow Fairy and So You Think would have finished in front of Shareta. ie Snow Fairy and So You Think ran below their best… And therefore what I am saying is judging Danedream’s Arc by Snow Fairy and So You Think – like you were trying to do earlier – does not give a fair reflection.

    Yes, am sure they held So You Think up in order to give the horse the best opportunity to stay the trip… And yes, if So You Think had been ridden prominently may well have been too free without cover… But just because a horse is incapable of being ridden closer to the pace, does not mean he is not inconvenienced in races favouring those ridden more prominently (and he’s out the back).

    Yes, Shareta is a prominent racer, that’s how she likes to race. Yes, that is exactly why she had an advantage in a race that favoured those ridden prominently.

    value is everything
    #1321293

    Pete2014
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    Danedream has Enable covered by the level of opposition in her Gr.1 wins and it´s not even that close right now.

    Danedream´s Arc field > Enable´s Arc field
    Danedream´s KG field > Enable´s KG field
    Danedream´s 2nd Baden-Baden win > Enable´s English Oaks field
    Danedream´s 1st Baden-Baden win > Enable´s Irish Oaks field
    Danedream´s Berlin win > Enable´s Yorkshire Oaks field

    Also Danedream won the Gr.1 in Baden-Baden and Berlin by 6L and 5L in the lead up to the Arc.

    #1321300
    Voleur
    Voleur
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    That logic seems incredibly flawed to me Ginger, I’m not buying that at all. It was the second fastest Arc ever ran, so how in the love of god would it have suited two hold up horses in Snow Fairy and So You Think to run more prominently?

    There isn’t such a thing as a race that inherently suits prominent runners (except maybe at Chester), so I’m not sure where you’re getting the impression that Danedream’s Arc only suited prominent runners. It all depends on the various factors at play in the race that day, and judging by the time of the race, coming off the pace was the best strategy for hold up horses on the day. You are making this incredibly black and white, which as we know racing never is.

    Shareta was a horse who loved racing prominently = raced prominently and ran well.
    Snow Fairy and SYT were both horses who raced off the pace (at 12f) = raced off the pace in a fast run race and ran well.

    That form adds up to me. Danedream’s Arc at least = Enable’s Arc.

    #1321328
    Voleur
    Voleur
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    I’ll make a comparison with this year’s Arc to aid in my argument.

    Order of St George is a horse who will perform best over 12f when racing prominently, just like Shareta. He probably ran to the highest potential form figure that he could have achieved, aided by the fact that he raced prominently. Exactly like Shareta. Are you beginning to see me reasoning?

    Cloth of Stars on the other hand is a horse that will perform best over 12f when raced off the pace, exactly like Snow Fairy. Cloth of Stars also achieved the highest possible form figure he could have ran to, which was no doubt aided by him racing off the pace.

    By your reasoning, because Order of St George was able to run to a figure of 128 by racing prominently, Cloth of Stars was at a disadvantage by racing off the pace, and therefore was not able to run to his highest level of form. So, you believe Cloth of Stars is actually capable of running higher than 132 over 12f? I think now you’ll begin to see the invalidity of your argument about race positioning.

    Every horse is different. Running styles, stamina, and various race day factors such as ground, number of runners and pace have to be taken into account. You simply brush over these with one broad stroke.

    EDIT: For the record, I never said Shareta had an advantage over the others racing prominently, I simply said she was “aided by having the run of the race at the front.” This was her optimum position. i.e: she would have been at a disadvantage running further down the field.

    There is a big difference.

    • This reply was modified 3 days, 8 hours ago by Voleur Voleur.
    #1321344
    Gingertipster
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    EDIT: For the record, I never said Shareta had an advantage over the others racing prominently, I simply said she was “aided by having the run of the race at the front.” This was her optimum position. i.e: she would have been at a disadvantage running further down the field.

    There is a big difference.

    What is your definition of the term “run of the race” then, Voleur.

    “Run of the race” is most often used to describe one who’s been advantaged by racing prominently. ie Either when rivals have met trouble in behind, or if quick ground (or slow pace) meant it’s difficult to peg the prominent racer back.

    But “run of the race” can also be used with horses held up. eg When one from the back has not got involved in a pace burn up and comes through to beat exhausted horses.

    Your quote told me you believed Shareta advantaged by having “the run of the race from the front”.

    value is everything
    #1321352
    Voleur
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    I think it’s clear this debate has ran it’s course if we’re now nitpicking over terminology.

    It’s obvious from the time of the race, that there is no way Shareta could have had any ‘advantage’ from racing prominently, the race was just too fast. But it did allow her to run to her very best level of form, purely because that style of running suits her best. I thought I made that point very clear despite your misinterpretation.

    #1321355
    Gingertipster
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    That logic seems incredibly flawed to me Ginger, I’m not buying that at all. It was the second fastest Arc ever ran, so how in the love of god would it have suited two hold up horses in Snow Fairy and So You Think to run more prominently?

    There isn’t such a thing as a race that inherently suits prominent runners (except maybe at Chester), so I’m not sure where you’re getting the impression that Danedream’s Arc only suited prominent runners. It all depends on the various factors at play in the race that day, and judging by the time of the race, coming off the pace was the best strategy for hold up horses on the day. You are making this incredibly black and white, which as we know racing never is.

    Shareta was a horse who loved racing prominently = raced prominently and ran well.
    Snow Fairy and SYT were both horses who raced off the pace (at 12f) = raced off the pace in a fast run race and ran well.

    That form adds up to me. Danedream’s Arc at least = Enable’s Arc.

    On Timeform Ratings: If Snow Fairy and So You Think ran to form in the Arc, then the distances from them to the winner mean Danedream is not just the equal of Enable; she’d be the best female in around 75 years of Timeform Ratings. :wacko: Sorry, can’t believe that.

    I believe it was not the second fastest run Arc at Longchamp, but THE fastest. But like you, I don’t believe French going reports either. Times of the races that day indicate it was in fact at least good-firm. The Arc is only very rarely run on a firm surface, so you’re effectively only judging Danedream’s year against a handful of others anyway. It may well be that of the small number of Arcs run on a firmish surface Danedream’s is the fastest.

    In my experience there are three types of race where it can be an advantage to race prominently.
    One is on very soft ground – where most horses struggle to quicken through the bog.
    One is when they don’t go a fast enough pace early, with hold up horses trying to close at a time when those at the front are still quickening.
    The other is on firmish ground – where (similar to above) horses in a prominent position are able to last longer.

    Just because a horse likes to be held up, does not mean there’s never a race that disadvantages held up horses.

    If a hold up horse has a tremendous turn of foot – like Zarkava – they can be favoured by the circumstances above (as in have a better chance of winning) because of that electric change of speed. Even though the “form” shown often does not do it justice – because the distances back to placed horses are less. But there are very few of these.

    Some hold up horses – like Snow Fairy and So You Think – are not immediate quickeners; they instead quicken gradually and able to maintain that speed for a long time. It’s this second type of hold up horse who can lose out in races that favour prominent runners.

    • This reply was modified 3 days, 5 hours ago by Gingertipster Gingertipster.
    value is everything
    #1321378
    Gingertipster
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    I think it’s clear this debate has ran it’s course if we’re now nitpicking over terminology.

    It’s obvious from the time of the race, that there is no way Shareta could have had any ‘advantage’ from racing prominently, the race was just too fast. But it did allow her to run to her very best level of form, purely because that style of running suits her best. I thought I made that point very clear despite your misinterpretation.

    It would be a very facile argument to say neither Snow Fairy nor So You Think ran to form in Danedream’s Arc Ginger, there isn’t sufficient evidence to support that claim. It is much more likely that Shareta ran to a career best, and a whopping career best of +8lbs , which was no doubt aided by her having the run of the race at the front.

    It’s not “nitpicking” Voleur, you’re just seemingly going back on what you said earlier.

    From what you now say “run of the race” means to you:
    If every horse is able to race the way it likes – ie Front runners are able to front run, those who like to track pace track pace, ditto mid div types, held up types and those dropped out… Then all the field can be described as having “the run of the race”, all at the same time. :unsure:

    Your above quote makes no sense now.
    Have I got this right? You now say Snow Fairy and So You think also got “the run of the race” because they too were able to race how they like to race while (according to you) running to form?

    value is everything
    #1321385
    Gingertipster
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    Run of the race implies advantage, and advantage is what I thought this debate was about. So it is an important phrase.

    Never mind Voleur; enjoyed the debate while it was happening, even if we were apparently talking at cross-purposes. :good:

    value is everything
    #1321412
    Voleur
    Voleur
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    Ginger let me try clarify my arguments for you, because it would appear I have failed in that regard judging by your responses.

    The core argument, or the key point I am trying to make, is that I think Enable’s Arc should be rated at 132 alongside Dandream’s. There is nothing about the form of Enable’s Arc that suggests to me it is a whole 2lbs superior. If anything I would have it slightly inferior, but I’m going to give her the benefit of the doubt and put it at 132.

    Every argument I have made was intended to prove that Enable’s Arc was not in fact superior to Danedream’s. Therefore it is crucial you understand, that I am perfectly satisfied with the 132 rating Timeform allocated Danedream, and the marks they allocated the various runners in her race. I am not trying to make a case that it should be higher, please understand that.

    On Timeform Ratings: If Snow Fairy and So You Think ran to form in the Arc, then the distances from them to the winner mean Danedream is not just the equal of Enable; she’d be the best female in around 75 years of Timeform Ratings. Sorry, can’t believe that.

    Therefore, I am not implying So You Think ran to his highest possible TFR of 131 which he achieved over 10f, but I am saying he ran to the mark Timeform allotted him for that race. Whereas you seem to be implying they overrated not only his performance, but the entire race.

    I believe Shareta, Snow Fairy and SYT, all ran to the level of form required to put Danedream’s win on a mark of 132. Perhaps Snow Fairy and SYT could have been a length better off on another day, but I highly doubt it.

    My point is, they all ran to a level of form which was deemed sufficient to award Danedream a mark of 132. I fully agree with Timeform on that.

    What I don’t agree with however, is that Enable’s Arc was a whole 2lbs superior to Danedream’s. I have already outlined my reasons why. There is nothing about the form of Enable’s race, or her performance in it, that suggests to me that it should be given a mark of 134 compared to Danedream’s 132.

    There is no way Cloth of Stars was able to run to 132 over 12f in my opinion, I put his performance equal to Shareta’s. Likewise for Snow Fairy and Ulysses, and most definitely for Order of St George and So You Think. There is just no way OOSG ran to 128 that day. Maybe he has the potential to run to 128 over 12f, but I thought he was actually below form that day, largely down to an average ride by Donnacha. I think he should have kicked for home far earlier like he did in the Irish Leger. Regardless, this is my own personal opinion.

    What I consider nearly sacrilegious however, is the fact that Enable’s win is rated equally to Treve’s first Arc. Personally I would have Treve’s win at 136, but I was satisfied with 134 until they went and put Enable’s win at the same level. Stick a big + beside her mark of 132 if you have to, but don’t put her on the same level as Treve. I can’t have that.

    Now Ginger it’s over to you. I hope I’ve made my position in this debate a lot clearer to you, but I am still at a loss for what point you are actually arguing.

    #1321418
    Voleur
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    Do you really believe that Cloth of Stars would have been able to dead-heat with Danedream on that performance?

    When you look at it that way I think you begin to see the comical side of his rating.

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