Does anyone wish to change my mind?

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This topic contains 15 replies, has 1 voice, and was last updated by  Seagull 10 years, 4 months ago.

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  • #8373

    Seagull
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    I’m leaving at 9.30 and going to have a big bet on Andrew Black’s horse Bouguereau in the first race at Newmarket today.

    On his website blog Andrew expects the jockey to be riding a handy position and he thinks it should win given ideal conditions.

    The Derby run was not that bad and it was staying on at the end of the race. The ground conditions went against it in Italy.

    Looking at the B.B.C. website they think it will not be raining today and the ground I expect to be good to soft which the trainer thinks is ideal.
    The step up in distance should not be a problem.

    The jockey/trainer combination have won this race in recent seasons which is a plus.

    Any opposing views before I leave are welcome!

    #172613
    MDeering
    MDeering
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    • Total Posts 1735

    The "drop in class" theory works to great effect – so long as you get a price!

    Enroller to topple him. But what do I know?

    #172614
    paulostermeyer
    paulostermeyer
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    I can easily make you change your mind Seagull – I have backed the beast – that should be sufficient a hoodoo – sorry :D

    #172618

    davidjohnson
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    The best horse in the race and will be suited by the step up in trip. The Derby form looks stronger than the Queens Vase form where most of the opposition come from and it’s hard to see him being beaten.

    #172651

    carvillshill
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    He’s my Jackpot banker, so I hope you’re both right!

    #172657
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
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    • Total Posts 24494

    Bougerou undoubtedly has the best chance and by some way. I’d want better than evens though.

    Enroller looks a free win bet at 5/1 each way.

    Mark

    value is everything
    #172663

    carvillshill
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    Expensive free bet. Cheerio Jackpot :(

    #172668
    MDeering
    MDeering
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    • Total Posts 1735

    There’s plenty more to the story, but it really was Evens for the winner of just his Maiden in a Listed race at the July Festival.

    Mind you, this would’ve been a hard one to quote.

    #172669
    sberry
    sberry
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    • Total Posts 2001

    like a sheep i followed you all in, like a lamb to the slaughter :(

    #172802

    Seagull
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    • Total Posts 1734

    Yes an expensive day.
    Long drive home :(
    Andrew Black was there and they all looked fed up when the horse came back in.
    Maybe the maiden it won was not that good but I thought the plan would be to try and run them ragged but never looked liked winning.

    #172806
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
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    • Total Posts 24494

    Expensive free bet. Cheerio Jackpot :(

    I shoud’ve learnt by now, nothing is free in this game.

    Mark

    value is everything
    #172810

    carvillshill
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    • Total Posts 2847

    Agreed he may not be as good as they thought but looked like a non-stayer to me- looked like winning a furlong out but outstayed up the hill.

    #172814

    Sean Rua
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    • Total Posts 514

    Any heavy lays of the losing fav reported on the Exchanges?

    #172825

    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4724

    Yes an expensive day.
    Long drive home :(
    Andrew Black was there and they all looked fed up when the horse came back in.
    Maybe the maiden it won was not that good but I thought the plan would be to try and run them ragged but never looked liked winning.

    What’s the maiden form got to do with it? It certainly wasn’t an evens poke on the Pontefract effort.

    #173041

    Colin Little
    Member
    • Total Posts 343

    Fwiw Seagull, I thought you were on the right track here. I didn’t know A.Black had a blog, & I don’t get to hear any inside info, but I always look at what the connections have achieved at these meetings in the past, sometimes even before looking at the form.

    Last year P.Chapple-Hyam had Lauraldean Gale, Declaration of War, Dutch Art and Winker Watson all run well here. So you would guess he had something for the meeting. To be honest, I missed the Bouguereau connection, but did notice the Comic Strip Heroes one (I think A.Black is something to do with them?). They had Winker Watson win the July Stakes last year. This year Maxwell Hawke was running in a 2yo race for the same team. He was a candidate, sadly he finished last!

    The idea that a horse owned or part-owned by A.Black had been laid out for this meeting was, imo, a very sound one though. It maybe just bad luck, or PCH’s horses not quite in top form. These things happen.

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