March 30, 2018 at 11:18 #1348467
- Total Posts 4536
MERCHANT NAVY 10/1
While Harry Angel top horse still no win at Ascot a concern.I adore The Tin Man but not feel be same horse this season.And instead gone with aussie horse join AOB.Aidan can get aussie horses win here did it with Starspangledbanner.And while got to reverse form with Redkirk Warrior.Can see him improving now being trained by AOBMay 23, 2018 at 21:43 #1354801
- Total Posts 8298
I backed Harry Angel for this race late into last season. I reckon this may the year where it all comes together for him. I went off Blue Point to some extent and his late withdrawal at Meydan was the final straw for me. Hopefully Harry Angel gets his ground this time around and not another half rice/half chips ride like the one he got at Haydock on bad ground.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.May 24, 2018 at 02:24 #1354819
- Total Posts 2001
I’m on Harry Angel at this stage too.
A proper 6f horse. Cruising speed, turn of foot, stays the trip and is really really fast.May 27, 2018 at 13:03 #1355182
- Total Posts 4536
Very happy with Merchant navy today give weight away and win like that on 1st run for AOB he be close at AscotMay 31, 2018 at 23:05 #1355529
Merchant Navy 5-1 ew for me.June 5, 2018 at 14:25 #1356186
- Total Posts 2001
Added Bound for Knowhere to my Harry Angel bet for this.
Wesley Ward keeps mentioning him as a horse who looks like a different animal this year and says he’s expecting a big big performance that will surprise us all. He’s generally spot on when he is bullish about one – No Nay Never, Acapulco and Lady A all on their English debuts were talked up and backed before the race and they bolted up.
He ran ok in the Commonwealth Cup this year but seems to be better now.
Played him at 20/1 each way
Bound For Knowhere @ 20/1 each wayJune 6, 2018 at 19:47 #1356271
- Total Posts 2377
Redkirk Warrior to win @ 6/1 BOG NRNB Golden Jubilee
No idea why Merchant Navy is shorter in the betting here.
RW won the G1 last time quite easily three months ago and is 12 lbs better off under these conditions.June 8, 2018 at 01:05 #1356339
- Total Posts 658
Agreed Botchy, I think Redkirk Warrior will definitely go off shorter than Merchant Navy once this is highlighted by pundits.
Although I am wary of O’Brien’s ability to find vast improvement in these types, 6/1 about the Warrior is too good to resist on that form line alone.
Redkirk Warrior 6/1.June 12, 2018 at 14:30 #1356678
- Total Posts 19507
Harry Angel settled much better the last race
think he’s still a decent enough price and I’ll be disappointed if he doesn’t win thisDon't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*nJune 12, 2018 at 15:02 #1356683
- Total Posts 590
Harry Angel’s price reflects his poor record at Ascot. For me this is an anomaly rather than a dislike of the track. I’ll be backing him at anything around 3’s.June 12, 2018 at 18:00 #1356697
- Total Posts 24428
Agree with you Pants.
Plenty will be against Harry Angel on Ascot form. However, imo it’s not about the track, it’s about pace of the race, team tactics (what I call “non-triers”) and Harry Angel not settling. Jockey on Intelligence Cross going off far too fast for his own mount’s good… but strangely enough tactics improving Team Coolmore’s overall chances by diminishing their main rival’s.
One Ascot defeat of Harry Angel’s on debut, not settling and would’ve got up had his rider not been so sympethetic. Greeness costing him the race – not course. On the back of that I backed him for a Goodwood maiden at around 2/1. Shortened in to odds-on before getting upset in stalls and a non-runner. Has his quirks and even more so back then. Other Ascot defeat on three year old reappearance, when yet to have prominent tactics installed, didn’t settle anywhere near fully and switched to the wrong group… but for which he’d probably have won that too.
Had Coolmore not used team tactics it last year’s Commonwealth Cup and Champion Sprint Harry Angel would have definitely won the former and possibly the latter too. In both races HA too free after being taken on up front; going too fast too soon. Winners Caravaggio and Librisa Breeze coming from off the pace having done advantageous fractions. It’s very true Harry Angel has his flaws. Although his temperament is probably getting better, doesn’t like being taken on early. ie These days can race upsides ok, but if something goes too fast he wants/needs to go too fast too (upsides). That said – at his best – is imo quite a bit better than any of these. So @ 3/1 worth taking the chance. Hopefully the “pacemaker” will be drawn away from Harry. If it wasn’t for the possibility of team tactics he’d be imo a 40 to 44% (fair 6/4 to 5/4). However, even now still probably around a 31 to 33% chance (between a fair 9/4 and 2/1 chance). So 3/1 is imo worth taking.
value is everythingJune 13, 2018 at 08:39 #1356736
- This reply was modified 4 months, 1 week ago by Gingertipster.
- Total Posts 914
Quite right Ginge on your points..
On Merchant Navy it is interesting that he really only had a 2month gap between AUS and here, so it’s not like his comeback was after a massive period off..It possible the market underestimated this and the improvement forthcoming might not be as great as expected. At his age though, you’d expect more from him that Redkirk Warrior, even with the weight adjustments….
Fascinating race, just not sure where my money will land yet…
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!June 13, 2018 at 09:17 #1356740
Merchant Navy the three-year-old son of Fastnet Rock staked a claim for top sprinting honours when he asserted closed home in the Weatherbys Ireland Greenlands Stakes.
Merchant Navy is now likely to run in the Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot before being shipped back to his homeland for stud duties.
Moore said: “He’s a very good horse to carry a penalty and to get off a plane and come from the other side of the world.”
“He gave me a real good feel and travelled very comfortably. It was a bit of a messy race. We were split all over the place and I wanted to take my time a little bit, but it was hard to.”
“He did it very well because he travelled and cruised and quickened. Great attitude.”June 13, 2018 at 09:23 #1356743
One would expect more improvement.
June 17, 2018 at 20:15 #1357160
- This reply was modified 4 months, 1 week ago by Mike007.
- Total Posts 569
Redkirk Warrior 6/1 e/w.
Brilliant each way bet this beast. Beat MN giving him 12lbs round a bend, now runs against him at levels on a straight 6F which he prefers.
Harry Angel is a horse I really like and he could bolt up but I do think there’s something in his loss record over Ascots stiff finishing 6, especially if he gets a bit fizzed up by the crowd or a pacemaker.
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