Crimson Fern handicap mark

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This topic contains 43 replies, has 1 voice, and was last updated by  thedarkknight 9 years, 4 months ago.

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  • #11432

    thedarkknight
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    Anyone else surprised this mare has been dropped a pound to 93 for finishing a possibly slightly unlucky second to Look Busy (rated 103). Siren’s Gift was third (rated 94). The trio raced at level weights. The quality of the horses behind doesn’t seem to offer any obvious clue either.

    Timeform commented after the run – this won’t have done her handicap mark any good. Clearly it has!

    #228997

    Glenn
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    Surely you’re not advocating putting a horse up for getting beaten by a Berry creature?

    #228999

    thedarkknight
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    Surely Alan Berry doesn’t train Look Busy? :?

    #229010
    tbracing
    tbracing
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    Similarly TDK I found Cheveton being dropped 4lbs after being beaten by Spin Cycle at Musselburgh an odd call. Hamish McGonagall was only dropped 1lb for finishing 4th and spin cycle bumped up 4lbs.

    #229014

    davidjohnson
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    Some bizarre ratings knocking around at the minute. Anyone care to tell me how Jafaru gets in at Brighton on Thursday off 50? His last turf handicap run came off 65 and his last handicap run off 60. Okay he ran poorly on 2 subsequent tuef runs, including in a seller, but were those shockers because all of a sudden he doesn’t act on turf?

    #229015

    Irish Stamp
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    Will likely have been dropped a few pounds for his last run David and then I presume a few more for the form not working out subsequently (haven’t checked this mind).

    #229057

    halfwaytoheaven
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    Really decent handicap mark if you ask me.

    Should go very close tomorrow too

    #229064

    blackfingernail
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    id rather saw my foot off than back a 50 rated handicapper around there. :roll:

    #229068
    The Ante-Post King
    The Ante-Post King
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    Crimson Ferns old adversary

    Strike up the band

    ran the race of his life in last years Group 1 Abbaye, finishing 4th btn only 3l by Marchand D"or has suffered at the hands of the handicapper since! The race had to be re-run because of a problem with Fleeting spirits stall during the first attempt of the race! What is amazing is the fact that Strike actually ran 2nd to Overdose on the 1st attempt of the race! Strike still needs 5lb off his current mark to win again! 108 for the Abbaye, currently 100, last winning mark was 94 i think! He is in the right hands and as soon as he hits his mark! Bang! he will win! Patience is a virtue!

    #229072

    thedarkknight
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    The problem Strike Up The band has is that he needs an easy five furlongs and an uncontested lead. That doesn’t happen very often – most of the races he runs in have other pace influences and there are only so many races run at suitable tracks.

    — and even from stall 1 at Chester with an easy lead he managed to get beaten the other day.

    Not a horse to lose a lot of sleep over these days imo.

    #229078

    Irish Stamp
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    His trainers attitude towards running early in the year on a surface the horse clearly hates is rather puzzling too.

    #229079
    The Ante-Post King
    The Ante-Post King
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    The problem Strike Up The band has is that he needs an easy five furlongs and an uncontested lead. That doesn’t happen very often – most of the races he runs in have other pace influences and there are only so many races run at suitable tracks.

    — and even from stall 1 at Chester with an easy lead he managed to get beaten the other day.

    Not a horse to lose a lot of sleep over these days imo.

    Agreed but off 97 he would have won at Chester and been pretty damn close at York, so the horse is actually running out of his skin at the moment! 95 will come this season if he keeps running in some big sprints
    for the next couple of months!

    #229084

    Anonymous
    • Total Posts 18146

    I try and steer clear of handicaps on the flat and this is one of the main reasons.

    I pointed out ove rthe jumps in the Swinton that Khyber King looks to have a real bad mark and doesn’t deserve to remain where he is for so long.

    The problem is if a horse happens to run in a race where others have ran below par and he ends up finishing close up to a high class animal he gets hammered.

    Jockeys ride races as they come and if a modertate horse finds himself in the lead because more talented animals have had an off day he’s in big trouble. If he’s the only thing going in front of a very good horse and the jockey on the top notcher just does enough to beat him then he shoots up the handicap.

    It’s fine saying patience is a virtue TAPK but it could be 2 years before he drops down to his original mark and by that time he may well be past his best and unable to even run of his old mark.

    With some horses it seems like the handicapper gives no quarter for the fact it was a fluke the horses ended up finishing where they did.

    It can be a messy old game handicapping and there are probably thousands of horse you could make a case for saying they’re to high or to low. I neither have the time or patience to sit and work it all out and then end up probably losing anyway.

    I admire people like TDK and TAPK who can handle it and seem to have a knack for it.
    Personally if I like a horse and he runs in a Handicap I have a quick look at what’s in the race what weight mines carrying and make a quick judgement. If I think he’s giving away too much I don’t back him.

    If I think the horses he is giving weight to are monkees if mines were carrying another 7lbs I wouldn’t give a hoot and still back him.

    #229101

    Anonymous
    • Total Posts 18146

    I’d take the view that the OH didn’t think a deal of the Bath form.
    Look Busy should have had them all for breakfast yet 3 horses rated well below her finished within 2l. He also dropped the 3rd (Sirens Gift – a hd behind) by !lb.

    Strike Up The Band needs a stiff 5, not an easy one.
    Nearly all his best races, and his only win, were over a stiff 5 last season, the only exception being the Abbaye, where he was outpaced, then doing all his best work at the death.
    He had a plum draw at Chester, and made the most of it, as Dandy Nicholl’s usually do,but was always vulnerable to a sharper horse.

    #229106

    thedarkknight
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    Well – the OH has it wrong imo.

    I reckon both Crimson Fern and (in particular) Siren’s Gift are better than 93. Let’s see what they achieve this season and revisit this.

    As for Strike Up The Band – I think his best performances came over an easy 5 (and I wouldn’t classify Ascot as being particularly stiff since the track was relaid either…)

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