Coventry Stakes

Home Forums Archive Topics Royal Ascot 2017 Coventry Stakes

This topic contains 57 replies, has 20 voices, and was last updated by stevecaution stevecaution 5 months, 3 weeks ago.

Viewing 15 posts - 31 through 45 (of 58 total)
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  • #1304859
    stevecaution
    stevecaution
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    Decided to have a second bullet at the race with De Bruyne Horse at 15/2.

    I am not sure how strong the Marble Hill, at its new distance of 6F, actually was.

    The more I look at this race, the more I think I would make De Bruyne Horse my narrow favourite here, as I feel he is just about the soundest looking horse from a form perspective.

    Brother Bear is a fine big colt but his last run was in foul and quite testing conditions. He looked a horse ready for stepping up to 7F and he may find the going a bit lively this week. Jessica Harrington is not exactly in great form either. 3/39 the last fortnight and 0/20 the last six days. Her current strike rate is 7.5%

    With a favourite this short in a trappy race, he’s not for me.

    Watching Arawak’s race I noticed that he trousered $63,000 for winning a 4 runner maiden. William Haggas is missing his vocation in life chucking £3000 in the trough for his maiden winners 😉

    What's all the fuss about Estimate on the Racing Legends Stamps?

    There's always been a second rate Mare on them anyway 😉

    #1304906
    botchy1
    botchy1
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    Gone for Romanised E/W @ 16’s

    Won one of the best maidens in Ireland this year quite cosily over 5F staying on well to lead on the line. In 3rd that day was Declarationofpeace who is favourite for the Windsor Castle and was also quite well fancied for this before switching.

    Was added to the entries for the G1 Phoenix Stakes along with a few others whose form ties in to that maiden race as well.

    #1304945
    raymo61
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    Gone for Arawak at 8/1 and Nebo at 14/1 in this. Arawak could be another WW job!! Nebo won nicely first time out and I think the second third fourth and fifth have all won since!!

    #1304961
    bozlike
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    The profile of U S Navy Flag tells me there could me more to come on this quick ground tomorrow. Still a maiden from three runs but this kind of test looks like it could be more to his liking. 50/1 looks big.

    Boz
    @TomBoardman87

    #1304989
    thejudge1
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    Surely unless you have some sort of angle or inside info these two year old contests are a sort of guessing game.

    I remember a few years ago Nick Mordin had a system on the Coventry. it was something about how unless the winner had achieved a RPR of 90 on it’s first or second run it had almost no chance. This year the qualifiers would be De Bruyne horse, Murillo, Arawak, Brother Bear and Denaar

    #1304996
    plecornu1808
    plecornu1808
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    Romanised. GL.

    #1304998
    Voleur
    Voleur
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    Surely unless you have some sort of angle or inside info these two year old contests are a sort of guessing game.

    You could really say the same for every horse race Judge, but this year’s Coventry does look like a particularly open contest.

    Having backed Declarationofpeace for this I’ve gone for his substitute Murillo 7/1. I thought his performance in Tipperary was even more impressive than the former’s in Dundalk, purely because of the quality of opposition. As somebody pointed out earlier in the thread, Wolfofbaggotstreet looks like a good marker, and the way Murillo floated past him suggests he will love this concrete ground. There are so many unexposed and progressive looking types in this that you could make a case for them all, but I’m going to nail my colours to this son of Scat Daddy , purely because his performance screamed future star to me.

    Good luck all. :good:

    #1304999
    Voleur
    Voleur
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    I forgot to mention that the withdrawal of Declarationofpeace spoke volumes to me about the regard in which Murillo appears to be held at Ballydoyle. You could argue instead that it is an indictment of Declarationofpeace rather than a display of confidence in Murillo, but you’d think Ballydoyle would rather go mob handed in the Coventry with a few mediocre runners, than split the two mediocre runners between the Coventry and the Windsor Castle.

    #1305016
    stevecaution
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    Brother Bear is very weak, along with Denaar.

    11/2 and 10/1 respectively indicates little confidence.

    De Bruyne Horse and Murillo are the ones for money and Arawak is available at 15/2, hardly the certainty some websites are claiming that he is.

    Richard Hannon says he can’t split his two but the betting over the last week says that De Bruyne Horse is the one, and I have to say his form looks that bit more solid. He strikes me as a horse who may just be capable of more if he learns how to use himself to better effect and there is no doubt whatever that he has improved greatly from race to race so far.

    What's all the fuss about Estimate on the Racing Legends Stamps?

    There's always been a second rate Mare on them anyway 😉

    #1305047
    thejudge1
    thejudge1
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    Surely unless you have some sort of angle or inside info these two year old contests are a sort of guessing game.

    You could really say the same for every horse race Judge, but this year’s Coventry does look like a particularly open contest.

    Having backed Declarationofpeace for this I’ve gone for his substitute Murillo 7/1. I thought his performance in Tipperary was even more impressive than the former’s in Dundalk, purely because of the quality of opposition. As somebody pointed out earlier in the thread, Wolfofbaggotstreet looks like a good marker, and the way Murillo floated past him suggests he will love this concrete ground. There are so many unexposed and progressive looking types in this that you could make a case for them all, but I’m going to nail my colours to this son of Scat Daddy , purely because his performance screamed future star to me.

    Good luck all. :good:

    Well I disagree Voleur, if you have races with more established form like the gold cup, then it comes more down to judgement. How are you supposed to know which horse which has won one race is better than another horse which has won one race? So lets not pretend that backing in races like the coventry is anything but a lottery. :unsure:

    #1305049
    TheGun
    TheGun
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    • Total Posts 152

    Having done my video study the ones I like are Brother Bear and Headway at a bigger price. Brother Bear is obviously favourite, but I still think he’s good value at 11/2 given his very strong form and the impression that he won last time despite the ground not because of it.

    #1305055
    Ghost of Rob V
    Ghost of Rob V
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    Zaman for me. Looks great value but seems to be going under the radar. Liked the manner of his only win and won more easily than the winning margin suggested. The runner up won in nice style since. Could surprise at around 25/1.

    #1305062
    Voleur
    Voleur
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    • Total Posts 478

    Surely unless you have some sort of angle or inside info these two year old contests are a sort of guessing game.

    You could really say the same for every horse race Judge, but this year’s Coventry does look like a particularly open contest.

    Having backed Declarationofpeace for this I’ve gone for his substitute Murillo 7/1. I thought his performance in Tipperary was even more impressive than the former’s in Dundalk, purely because of the quality of opposition. As somebody pointed out earlier in the thread, Wolfofbaggotstreet looks like a good marker, and the way Murillo floated past him suggests he will love this concrete ground. There are so many unexposed and progressive looking types in this that you could make a case for them all, but I’m going to nail my colours to this son of Scat Daddy , purely because his performance screamed future star to me.

    Good luck all. :good:

    Well I disagree Voleur, if you have races with more established form like the gold cup, then it comes more down to judgement. How are you supposed to know which horse which has won one race is better than another horse which has won one race? So lets not pretend that backing in races like the coventry is anything but a lottery. :unsure:

    I was only jesting Judge :good:

    #1305084
    stevecaution
    stevecaution
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    The worry for me is that Brother Bear mowed down Sioux Nation on debut and that horse has looked a short runner and disappointing in general. He will need to be speedier today and Aidan’s Murillo is clearly no Sioux Nation who would curl up in front.

    I went out and backed De Bruyne horse for the 2000 Guineas this morning. There hasn’t been much this year that has inspired and the Coventry winner will be favourite for the Guineas tonight, all things being equal. De Bruyne horse looks an athletic colt still learning and he has finished his last two races strongly. He looks as good at this stage as Toormore did. There is just something about this horse and the way he travels that makes me think he will fill out into a good colt in time.

    The theory is that he’s 33/1 now and may sit 8/1 Fav tonight. He’s been backed, while stablemate Denaar is drifting like a barge at 12/1. Denaar was always too skinny when he sat at 6/1 earlier on. Hannon says there is little to choose but the market says otherwise.

    When you see Dali at the same odds for the Guineas there must be better value in De Bruyne Horse at double carpet. I’ve had a speculation anyway.

    2000 Guineas De Bruyne Horse 33/1

    What's all the fuss about Estimate on the Racing Legends Stamps?

    There's always been a second rate Mare on them anyway 😉

    #1305085
    BigG
    BigG
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    I’m a bit late having a look at this one, but I’m rowing in with a few who have
    already mentioned DE BRUYNE HORSE. I think he looks like he could
    be top class, I had to settle for 13/2 this morning, but I’ll be happy enough with
    that if he hoses in :good:

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