Coventry Stakes 2018

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This topic contains 75 replies, has 18 voices, and was last updated by CharlesOlney CharlesOlney 5 hours, 40 minutes ago.

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  • #1356615
    stevecaution
    stevecaution
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    The Racing Post have Calyx on 98 after his debut win and I felt myself he had run to more than 95. 110 looks very strong to me and you always have to be cautious about a Mark Johnston runner running it’s race. A good example being Derby runner-up Dee Ex Bee, who looked the business on debut at Goodwood but then got stuffed when warm favourite for the Acomb at York next time.

    It won’t matter for the Coventry if Newmarket in July is the target but long term I hope Calyx is indeed as good as Timeform think. Of the Guineas leading lights betting wise I feel Calyx is the most likely to be in the mix at a mile next May.

    I feel that the Racing Post are way off with Legends Of War on a mark of 88 for his Yarmouth stroll. It probably won’t be a race that will work out very well because the 3rd horse was beaten nearly 8 lengths and you can’t expect too much from that ability void but the Varian horse who finished second seemed confidently backed and he cost a fair bit of money as well.

    The Racing Post have Cosmic Law highest of the lot on 104 but that was his third start and the ground was SOFT at Epsom. I can’t have him as 16 lbs better than Legends Of War myself.

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    #1356628
    MarkTT
    MarkTT
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    Why have you associated Calyx with Johnston ?

    #1356630
    stevecaution
    stevecaution
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    Why have you associated Calyx with Johnston ?

    I was trying to highlight that Johnston’s 2YO horses may not necessarily make good yardsticks because of inconsistency in their performance.

    Dee Ex Bee was such a juvenile from run 1 to run 2 last season and I wonder how reliable Octave will prove as a guide to Calyx’s level?

    Threading won her first two races last season and was well fancied against Clemmie next time but could only finish 5th, running 13 lbs below her previous race on RPRs.

    Yalta was the ultimate Boom Or Bust 2YO for Mark Johnston, winning his first two races in grand style, he was fancied by some in the Coventry but was never featured, finishing 8th. Some attributed that to the soft ground and gave him a chance again at Newmarket next time but again he was 8th. Frustratingly for his fans who then deserted him, he hosed up in the Molecomb at Goodwood, prompting connections to have a go in the Nunthorpe, only for him to finish 19th of 19.

    In general I cannot recall too many Johnston juveniles who run up an unbeaten sequence of 4 or 5 runs in their first season. It is a comment that sometimes applies in general to the stable with it seemingly pretty much pot luck as to whether they run a stormer or a stinker.

    I reckon it’s early days to be rating Calyx 110, even allowing for Timeform figures working differently.

    Sergei Prokofiev is a warm order for the Coventry but Calyx is rated 4 lbs better than him after one start. Even on the RPR of 98 he is three pounds higher than Frankel got for his first run from the Racing Post.

    I hope that explains where I was/am coming from.

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    #1356633
    stevecaution
    stevecaution
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    A Mark Johnston example from this season is New Winds. The New Approach filly won on debut and then went off Evens favourite a fortnight later, only to be 5th of 5 runners. Her first win was rated 83 and her second 62. Her Topspeed figure in race 1 was 70 and in her second run it was 4.

    What happened in the space of two weeks?

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    #1356636
    MarkTT
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    Ah, so you’re referring to Octave.

    Gotcha

    #1356637
    stevecaution
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    Yes, I was wondering how reliable Octave would be as the yardstick for Calyx. Normally you would expect a decent rise on a 2YO’s second start. In Octave’s case The Racing Post have raised her just 2 lbs from her first run, which is less than I would be looking for if I were a trainer.

    When I pondered Calyx’s rating I had to take a leap of faith and base it on Octave running to exactly her previous run and that is how I arrived on 95.

    Time will tell of course but I am always a bit wary of trusting Johnston’s runners as the line on a race.

    New Winds, who I mentioned earlier is entered at Haydock on Wednesday and carries a 6 lb penalty despite being last previously. It would be typical Johnston stuff if she defied the penalty and came home with her head in her chest.

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    #1356639
    MarkTT
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    I think the RP and Timeform were impressed with the final couple of furlongs but I’m not sure how you attribute a rating of 98 but then the eleven length third gets a 63.

    I liked Kingman but he was no great; well placed by his trainer and able to quicken off a slow pace, which is just how Calyx won his debut

    #1356644
    stevecaution
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    Looking back at Kingman’s 2000 Guineas it was a funny old race. In the mix was Australia, who would go on to win the Derby, Kingston Hill who would later land the St Leger and The Grey Gatsby who got his revenge on Australia in the Irish Champion Stakes and ran 28 times in his career. Amazingly, Ertijaal would go on to be a force over 5F in Dubai.

    There can’t be many Guineas’ like that one. Even good old Master The World is still going with 53 starts under his belt for David Elsworth.

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    #1356666
    charlie87
    charlie87
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    Some stats up to 2017 (not including Rajasinghe)

    15/15 – Won their previous race
    14/15 – Had never raced at Ascot before
    14/15 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
    13/15 – Came from the top three in the betting
    12/15 – Had at between 1 and 2 previous career runs
    11/15 – Foaled in either Feb or March
    9/15 – Won over 6f before
    8/15 – Winning favourites (3 joint)
    5/15 – Ran at either Newbury or Newmarket last time out
    5/15 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
    2/15 – Trained by Richard Hannon
    8 of the last 9 winners came from stalls 6 or higher
    6 of the last 9 winners came from stalls 10-19 (inc)
    The average winning SP in the last 15 runnings is 6/1

    #1356751

    Gibbs829
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    Legends Of War scratched from the Coventry :negative:

    #1356759

    nwalton
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    Shame but I suppose when you have Calyx on the same yard they had to make a choice.(or slight setback to one )

    Only ten days since Calyx debut, he was quite buzzy on debut,they know what they are doing sending him out again so soon.
    Lets hope he again looks as good as he did at HQ

    #1356761
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
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    Legend Of War’s withdrawl is a tip in itself for Calyx. Get On!
    Suspect Gosden found Calyx has more speed than Legends Of War and/or the one burning up the gallops at the moment… And/or wisely concluded Calyx may need at least one more run at 6f before (as the original intention) going up in trip (Superlative). Given the impressive turn-of-foot/speed shown on debut, wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up going for the Middle Park too.

    value is everything
    #1356782
    raymo61
    raymo61
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    As I said on another thread until today I had only had one AP bet for Ascot but today have added two more CALYX 3/1 and ADVERTISE at 16/1.
    I think without the AOB factor Calyx would be pretty short for this race and 3/1 looks a decent price to me.
    Advertise ultimately won well first time up and looks a big string individual with a decent turn of foot and will be suited by the stiff finish at Ascot and to me looks overpriced at 16/1.

    #1356783
    botchy1
    botchy1
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    As I said on another thread until today I had only had one AP bet for Ascot but today have added two more CALYX 3/1 and ADVERTISE at 16/1.
    I think without the AOB factor Calyx would be pretty short for this race and 3/1 looks a decent price to me.

    Still sounds like no decision has been made by Coolmore as to who runs here yet Raymo.

    #1356791
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
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    Still sounds like no decision has been made by Coolmore as to who runs here yet Raymo.

    The second string Irish Rover is between 13/2 and 10/1 with bookmakers and on the drift, Botchy. He’s currently 13/1 in the blue column on befair with absolutely no money in the pink (waiting to be taken). That suggests to me the decision has all but been taken… And highly unlikely Sergei would be as low if he wasn’t going here.

    imo On good-firm ground this race is 33.33% Calyx, 33.33% Sergei Prokofiev and 33.33% The Field.

    I’ve backed Calyx with a saver on Segei.

    value is everything
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