Commonwealth Cup 2018

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This topic contains 72 replies, has 15 voices, and was last updated by jackh1092 jackh1092 12 hours, 27 minutes ago.

Viewing 13 posts - 61 through 73 (of 73 total)
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  • #1356482
    KevMcAlley
    KevMcAlley
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    • Total Posts 368

    Equilateral shortening all the time, must be keeping up with Battaash on the gallops!

    #1356711
    Ben_Bernanke
    Ben_Bernanke
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    • Total Posts 622

    4s in places now for the best sprinter since usain bolt! Probably better than Battaash 😉

    #1356737
    jackh1092
    jackh1092
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    • Total Posts 537

    Shocker of a price in a very competitive race, anyone taking that proce is mad IMO.

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1356789
    stevecaution
    stevecaution
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    • Total Posts 8035

    Equilateral fans may want to check out York at the weekend for encouragement.

    Foxtrot Lady was second, albeit 8 lengths in arrears, to Equilateral at Doncaster but after a slightly frustrating run of places she found her mojo next time and broke her duck. Foxtrot Lady followed up next time and is favourite for the Pavers Foundation Sprint Handicap at York on Saturday, generally 7/1 off her new handicap mark of 94.

    In the Doncaster race, the Racing Post gave 105 for Equilateral but in doing so they awarded Foxtrot Lady 67, which was 16 lbs below her official rating of 83. The official handicapper only dropped her 3 lbs on to a mark of 80, which she took advantage of and earned a new rating of 87 and then went in again to rise to 94. It begs the question as to whether Foxtrot Lady actually ran as poorly as the Racing Post rating suggests behind Equilateral?

    The Racing Post sequence of ratings for Foxtrot Lady sees her last four starts rated 75, 67, 91 and 100. The Doncaster rating looks like an outlier in a clear trend of good improvement. That leads me to wonder what mark they would give Equilateral if we were to say Foxtrot Lady ran to a mark of 80, which is a very fair figure to draw from the path from 75 to 100 over four races. You could argue a bit more might actually be due but even the conservative figure of 80 makes Equilateral at least a 115 horse if the logic is true.

    Equilateral has an official mark of 105 and if that is as good as he is, he is an appalling bet at his current odds. When looking at the other market leaders we find the following official ratings:-

    Sioux Nation 114
    Sands Of Mali 116
    Invincible Army 112
    Expert Eye 111
    Fleet Review 111
    Laugh A Minute 101
    Eqtidaar 107
    Heartache 110
    Different League 102
    Raid 108

    So if Equilateral is only 105 he has a few ahead of him and needs at least 10 lbs improvement but it wouldn’t be out of the question that he’s actually better than the 105 already and also has more scope than most in the field.

    Several here may go to the Jersey Stakes instead and it’s not really a stellar standard with Sands Of Mali top rated but not spectacular since his taking Gimcrack win.

    I highly respect Equilateral and although not a big fan of Charlie Hills, he seems to do well with the straight forward point and shoot sprinters.

    Heartache and Different League have both failed to inspire this season and you would have to question the 110 rating of the latter on the evidence of her seasonal debut.

    My bet on Heartache is as good as goosed, but I have a bet from just after the Gimcrack on Sands Of Mali. I dare say Richard Fahey will hope something goes off like a bat out of hell to give Sands Of Mali a lead but although I thought he was some value early doors it isn’t the case now, at half the earlier odds of 16/1. Similar comments apply to the consistent Invincible Army even if 5th home in the Sandy Lane (Actress) landed a Group 3 at the Curragh next time.

    Sioux Nation is an obvious contender but I just wonder about the strength of his form and it looked at times last season that he was a short runner at 6F and to my eye the others were coming back on him in the closing stages of his latest start, after Sioux Nation initially looked like he would clear away after taking it up. I thought he was a bit of value early on but at 7/2 in a place now, there is no value to my eyes.

    I’ll play Equilateral as my main bet now at 5/1 and leave Sands Of Mali from last year as my save now. I’d be astonished if Heartache could bounce back and land this.

    Equilateral looks a very speedy sort and he could have won more than ten lengths last time :-

    http://www.attheraces.com/atrplayer-replay-popup/VOD/1036986

    In a race where it’s tricky to spot a star amongst the more exposed sorts, I’ll put a pen through Equilateral’s second run in the belief that he’ll be thereabout’s as is and the winner if there’s improvement to come.

    Best of luck to those on him at big odds. I’ll settle for 5/1.

    Equilateral 5/1

    The Total Recall followers make their way to Aintree.

    #1356794
    Middle_Of_March
    Middle_Of_March
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    • Total Posts 1770

    I absolutely agree with Jack here.

    He was impressive last time but 4/1 for this?!? Crazy imo.

    #1356795
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
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    • Total Posts 23267

    I don’t think Foxtrot Lady should be rated as running to anything like 80, as if she had I doubt the distances between her and the third and fourth, Miracle Works and Warton would’ve been as little as 2 1/2 and 2 1/2 lengths. However, I do agree with you that the probability is she ran to better than 67. Not that Equilateral needs it to be much better than 67; having given the filly 12 lbs and an 8 lengths beating… And if the jockey had wanted it could’ve been quite a bit more than 8.

    Considering what the Commonwealth Cup has shown us since its inception, this looks overall a poor running. Those seemingly with the best form, Sands Of Mali, Invincible Army look fairly exposed – not up to winning an average renewal. However, if the winner is up to previous renewals it’s more likely to be an improver. I have a healthy respect for Sioux Nation; but given the progression shown at Doncaster Equilateral looks the most likely to improve in to an average Commonwealth Cup winner.

    I’ve followed you in and taken the 5/1, Steve.

    value is everything
    #1356816
    Ben_Bernanke
    Ben_Bernanke
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    • Total Posts 622

    That’s what I like to read!! Great write up Steve all aboard the Equilateral train!!! Choooo choooo to the bank

    #1356817
    Ben_Bernanke
    Ben_Bernanke
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    • Total Posts 622

    This time next week (ish) Del Boy!!!!!!!!!

    #1357134
    Ben_Bernanke
    Ben_Bernanke
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    • Total Posts 622

    Just 5 days to go until one of the greatest coups in this forums history, even the great TAPK would be proud of this one, 50s into 4s for the best horse since Frankel. Should be a 1/4 shot, sell the wife, re-mortgage the house, steal some old dears jewellery to trade in at the local pawn shop……pile on!!

    #1357140
    stevecaution
    stevecaution
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    • Total Posts 8035

    Ben, I have done Equilateral for the July Cup at 12/1. It seemed logical that he will go there next if he wins at Royal Ascot and with some of the older horses sure to be beaten in the Jubilee, I reckoned Equilateral might go second favourite for the July Cup and he is unexposed still.

    The Total Recall followers make their way to Aintree.

    #1357155
    Pants
    Pants
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    • Total Posts 497

    Going against the majority here and am against Equilateral here at current prices.

    Possibility he’s exposed but I’ll take the form in the book here and go with the top rated Sands of Mali at 8/1.

    #1357156
    CharlesOlney
    CharlesOlney
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    • Total Posts 1800

    I’ve had a bit of Corals 5/1 about Sioux Nation with the thinking that come the day he’ll be sent off a 7/2 fav ahead of Charlie Hills’s charge.

    On bear form and experience I’d rather side with ‘SN’.

    #1357194
    jackh1092
    jackh1092
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    • Total Posts 537

    Anyone know if Raid is heading here?

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

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