Cheltenham Bets 2018

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This topic contains 219 replies, has 42 voices, and was last updated by Middle_Of_March Middle_Of_March 1 week, 6 days ago.

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  • #1313399

    charlie87
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    • Total Posts 467

    Not a daft question at all and I’m not too sure. He is 50’s for the CC and 38 for the Ryanair on the BE, so maybe worth taking a small position on both

    #1313416

    FrankieMac
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    • Total Posts 84

    Thanks Charlie, only just started tentatively dabbling on the exchanges – will have a look :good:

    #1314769

    rocky91
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    • Total Posts 437

    With the sad news about Neon wolf.
    I have placed my 1st bets.

    Yanworth jlt 10/1
    Finians Oscar jlt 10/1.
    I was considering backing all 3 win neon wolf included when finians Oscar was 12s. But now being able to back them both at 10s with neon wolf unfortunately not running. Is a great opportunity imo. Both 99% go chasing. And both the horses optimum distance imo.

    Melon 16s arkle.
    Unrelated but I could see them trimming the price with neon wolf now out and 16s very fair imo

    #1314772

    rocky91
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    • Total Posts 437

    Half the stake of the jlt.
    On finians Oscar arkle 20/1

    #1314850

    rocky91
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    • Total Posts 437

    Added SAMCRO at 14/1 to win any race.
    I’d be leaning towards Neptune, however the Albert Bartlett would be very possible.
    If somehow he doesn’t reach the very top level, you have the fall back of a bet on the martin pipe or coral cup depending on his mark.

    He looks top class and what you would hope him to be for the money they paid out. Definitely a novice to look forward to this season.

    And forbid a setback maybe even still a live chance with the champion bumper.

    #1315010

    rocky91
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    • Total Posts 437

    Stayers hurdle.
    Nichols canyon 7/1
    Uknowhatimeanharry 9/1
    Backed both.

    A league above the rest and both sound.

    Penhill is out for atleast 6 months after suffering an injury in preparation for the Melbourne cup and the owner doesn’t fill you with any optimism of a return soon.
    Lami serge needs very soft ground.

    I don’t rate the world’s end personally and nobody knows what would have happened in the Bartlett and it was hardly a facile win at Aintree against limited opposition.
    Yanworth and finians oscar go novice chasing
    Apple’s jade will stay down the mares route

    If im really trying to look there’s only wholestone and mega fortune i could see out of the opposition that could have some sort of chance of progressing.

    So I think the market leaders are definitely over priced.

    #1315228
    Venture to Cognac
    Venture to Cognac
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    • Total Posts 12011

    I’d agree with that Rocky, doesn’t look like it’s going to be a vintage crop this year, and the prices for the pair do look generous.

    I doubt I’ll get involved in it Ante-Post this year, unless something really catches my eye, and the only other price I like the look of at the moment is Lil Rockerfeller at 33’s.

    #1315238

    rocky91
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    • Total Posts 437

    I agree vtc, lil Rockefeller at 33/1 would be value,
    I also would be interested in seeing him 3 or 4 mile novice chasing.
    But I definitely wouldn’t begrudge the owner picking up the prize money even being placed at this level over hurdles.

    Champagne classic the only other novice hurdler who looked an improver at the end of the season is also out injured for the season.

    • This reply was modified 3 months, 2 weeks ago by  rocky91.
    #1315240

    rocky91
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    • Total Posts 437

    Every year I also out a few quid on arctic fire at treble figure odds for this on the exchanges. His only try at 3m on heavy I would completely write off, and the way he finishes off every race really interests me yo see if he could do it over this trip.

    #1315244
    Venture to Cognac
    Venture to Cognac
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    Yeah Rocky, gutted about Champagne, he did me a proper turn at Punchestown.

    I’d already drawn up my 10 to Follow, well it was more of a 19 to follow, and he was one of the first ones on that list.

    #1315463

    rocky91
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    • Total Posts 437

    Added annamix supreme 20/1.
    Got at 25s in a few multiples.

    The form is poor.
    But so was vautour’s behind black river.

    A complete chance that it’s mullins supreme horse
    mullins and rich ricci bought from Gulluime macaire the same as vautour and was very green on his only start, tenderly handled until the finish where he came 2nd with a view to keeping his novice status. Hes been in mullins yard for wellover a year so I’m sure he has had plenty of schooling.

    I have Been waiting to see what the market said before playing and the gamble has started today. Paddy power/ Betfair cut from 20s to 14s.and like min it’s the time of year when they run the schooling hurdles and a supreme gamble starts.

    I expect annamix to bolt up in a poor maiden hurdle at long odds on then go to single figures so I’ll have a speculative play now on something that will shorten up rather than being value.

    • This reply was modified 3 months, 2 weeks ago by  rocky91.
    • This reply was modified 3 months, 2 weeks ago by  rocky91.
    • This reply was modified 3 months, 2 weeks ago by  rocky91.
    #1316013

    rocky91
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    • Total Posts 437

    To win any race.

    Debuchet 12/1
    Likely supreme. Last one of the bridle in the champion bumper and has followed up since

    Red jack 16/1. (Likely neptune)
    Beat debuchet on debut with
    le richenbourg back in 3rd before being purchased by jp mcmanus and has followed up since.

    The best 2 bumper horses in the land imo.

    To win any race 12/1
    Petit mouchoir.

    Goes novice chasing, I would have thought he had arkle written all over him, however Michael oleary thinks he now settles far better and is a 3 mile chase prospect. Which I originally thought after his point to point and sales bumper wins. I’d personally fancy him from the front in an arkle. But where ever he goes i’d want him on side, apart from finians Oscar and the ill fated neon wolf, it looked a poor crop of novices to me last season, and petit mouchoir is bred for the job.

    If for what ever reason he diddnt take to chasing, he’s still open to improvement over hurdles especially with a clear round.

    Antepost bets in total.

    Stayers hurdle
    Nichols canyon 7/1
    Uknowhatimeanharry 9/1

    Novice chasers

    Arkle
    Finians Oscar 20/1
    Melon 16/1(caution could stay hurdling)

    Jlt
    yanworth 10/1
    Finians Oscar 10/1

    Petit mouchoir 12/1 any race.

    Novice hurdlers.

    Samcro 14/1 any race
    Annamix supreme 25/1 20/1
    Debuchet 12s any race.
    Red jack 16s any race.

    • This reply was modified 3 months, 2 weeks ago by  rocky91.
    #1316093
    Venture to Cognac
    Venture to Cognac
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    • Total Posts 12011

    Good luck with them Rocky.

    I particularly like the Samcro & Red Jack bets. Not my favourite kind of bet by any stretch, but if I was do a couple this season, then the pair of them look as good as any.

    I’ve already bet Le Richebourg for The Supreme, but well aware of that race where Debuchet, and especially Red Jack, got the better of him. Both these 2 could be very good indeed, and Red Jack could in fact be something special.

    I’m a massive fan of Samcro, and I’ve actually bet him for The Champion Hurdle, as I think, potentially, he could make massive progression this year. That will almost certainly be money down the pan, but I thought it worth a try. I’d slightly favour The Supreme, of the more sensible/realistic options, but wherever he goes, looking forward to seeing him back out.

    Although I had bet Petit Mouchoir at huge odds for The Champion Hurdle last year, I actually always thought of him as a potential staying chaser, and I can see him going up a fair bit in distance. Time will tell.

    #1316104

    rocky91
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    • Total Posts 437

    Thanks vtc. I spent a few spare hours over the weekend going through video replays of all the bumpers and those 2 really stood apart for me, time will tell if I am correct.

    will be interesting to see if petit mouchoir gives fences a bit more respect.

    The plan was to wait for nrnb but that’s gone out the window for now lol.
    Strangely my early bets have been where I have been making the money last few years,

    Good luck with your bets also

    #1316105
    Venture to Cognac
    Venture to Cognac
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    • Total Posts 12011

    I don’t think you’ll be far off with that pair, and I’ll although I’m with Le Richebourg at the moment, the pair of them are a real fly in the ointment.

    I was very happy with my Cheltenham last year, but I’m being very guarded this season with my staking. The last time I had a Cheltenham similar to last seasons, I went all guns blazing the next season, and lost a fair few quid, so I’m being strict this time lol. I’m the opposite as to you, and most of my losses stem from betting horses at massive odds for mainly The Gold Cup. The more sensible selections normally come Nov to Jan.

    I’ve chipped away a couple of quid here and there, but been a quiet summer for me, and the bets I put up earlier in the thread, are more or less what I’m sitting with just now.

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