Cheltenham Bets 2018

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This topic contains 215 replies, has 42 voices, and was last updated by  Autumnal 8 hours ago.

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  • #1310438

    charlie87
    Participant
    • Total Posts 462

    The only bet I have had so far is Blow By Blow to win any race @ 14/1. Beat some decent horses on the flat (Moon Racer, Bacardys, Death Duty) and skipped jumping last season due to a small injury, and connections wanting to preserve the horse’s novice status. Being a WPM horse I am sure the Supreme/Neptune debate will go on for months, but 14’s to cover both seems decent and I was impressed with his win in the Punchestown Grade One Bumper.

    #1310442
    bozlike
    bozlike
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1596

    Gordon Elliott horse Charlie. Moved in the Gigginstown re-jig.

    Boz
    @TomBoardman87

    #1310478

    charlie87
    Participant
    • Total Posts 462

    Gordon Elliott horse Charlie. Moved in the Gigginstown re-jig.

    Oh yes of course, my bad.

    #1310708

    charlie87
    Participant
    • Total Posts 462

    About to start work on my AP book for Cheltenham. Really looking forward to it, although I am going to modify what I do this year as last year far too much of my AP book was dead before the off. I am going to avoid specific races and stick more (especially this early) on the ‘to win any race market’. I am also going to avoid acca’s this early and stick win bets at bigger prices on the exchanges (hardly ground breaking stuff).

    I don’t think anyone could argue that AP betting this early if not rife with risk –health, target and winning all need to go right and plenty can go wrong. That being said, I am definitely getting stuck in to some horses that have a clear target and are likely to run no more than 2-3 times between now and March. I don’t see the point of letting (what can often but not always be) an easy seasonal reappearance against inferior opposition reduce the odds, as well as maybe 1 more competitive run between Nov – Feb. Of course there are exceptions where we need to wait and see, Buveur D’Air being the best most recent example after switching from chasing to hurdling mid season, but horses like Altior @ 13/8 (CC), Nichols Canyon @ 6/1 (SH), Buveur D’Air @ 4/1 (CH) are good examples.

    #1311250

    charlie87
    Participant
    • Total Posts 462

    I have backed Arctic Fire @ 80’s for the Champion Hurdle.

    I wouldn’t normally get stuck in this early but I assume he stays hurdling and will be campaigned for the Champion Hurdle. Yes, Buveur D’air looks a good thing, but 4.6 is way too short at this stage and IMO Arctic Fire would not need to improve on that 2nd to Faugheen to beat Buveur D’air. He is 8 going on 9 and there is no reason to believe he cannot recapture that form, especially when you look at how he won the county off top weight having not raced for 400 days. I can see him doing a Rooster Booster who won the County in 2002 and then Champion in 2003.

    I think that 2nd to Faugheen was very impressive and a completely underrated performance. Faugheen was gifted an early lead and Arctic Fire closed him down to just over a length up the hill. If you watch the footage back Willie said post-race that Arctic Fire had the most potential to improve out of the first three home.

    There are plenty of horses ahead of Arctic Fire in the market that are likely to race elsewhere, or never race again.

    We see time and time again where a horse places in the CH one year, then goes on to win it (Binocular, Punjabi, Brave Inca, Hors La Loi III, all recent examples).

    #1311354

    rocky91
    Participant
    • Total Posts 435

    Haven’t had a bet yet but you can guarantee that
    ANNAMIX
    will be going into single figures for the supreme before he ever sets foot on a race course.
    2nd in the prix de saint voir at vichy when tenderly handled trained by guillame macaire.

    Now owned by (ms s ricci) rich ricci and trained by willie mullins.

    The form has worked out pretty awful with plenty of runners from the race since. But he’s been in the yard since October 2016 and improvement is inevitable.
    I won’t be surprised to see plenty of hype for annamix

    #1311355

    rocky91
    Participant
    • Total Posts 435

    ANNAMIXFollow  

    Share 

    HONGRE (11/12/2014) PS GRI

    Born on 08/05/2013 

    By MARTALINE out of TASHTIYANA (DOYOUN)

    Trainer WP. MULLINS

    Owners MME S. RICCI

    Breeders JL. POMEYROL

    Premiums eligible Oui

    EBF Eligible Oui

    Horse Form : (16)2h

    Certificat d’exportation non déposé

                           Race record             Performances             Entries             Pedigree                   

    2

    19/09/2016

    VICHY

    Hurdles only – 3500 m

    Prizemoney
    5.040

    +

    #1311366
    Venture to Cognac
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 11808

    Always a good sign when you’re back in the fold Rocky, means the jumpers are on the way back :yahoo:

    Best of luck with all your Ante-Posts this year, and hope it’s a good one for you.

    PS….do you want me to merge your other 2 threads?

    #1311397

    rocky91
    Participant
    • Total Posts 435

    Thankyou and yes please vtc :good: I’m not sure what happened. I must have pressed the wrong button lol.

    #1311426
    Venture to Cognac
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 11808

    lol, that’s it sorted mate. You could probably edit it down to 2 posts if you want, and I could delete the duplicate one, but you can let me know what you think.

    #1312144

    atthepost
    Participant
    • Total Posts 103

    I have done a few multiple combinations. Just small stakes lucky 15s & 31s. These are the horses I fancy

    ARKLE- Petit Mouchoir 16/1 & Tombstone 33/1

    SUPREME- Samcro 20/1

    NEPTUNE- Blow by blow & Samcro 20/1

    CHAMPION HURDLE- Buveur dair 4/1

    Mares- Apple Jade 3/1 & Augusta Kate 14/1

    World hurdle- Nichols canyon 7/1 & apples jade 14/1

    JLT- Finians oscar 12/1

    GOLD CUP- Douvan & Our duke 12/1

    X country- cause of causes 9/1

    :good:

    #1313161

    charlie87
    Participant
    • Total Posts 462

    Couple of quid (literally) on the following for the GC:

    Un Temps Pour Tout 500’s
    Bellshill 400’s
    Saphir Du Rheu 350’s
    Valseur Lido 180’s
    Blaklion 200’s
    Don Poli 300’s
    Cause of Causes 380’s

    #1313210
    befair
    befair
    Participant
    • Total Posts 873

    Couple of quid (literally) on the following for the GC:

    Un Temps Pour Tout 500’s
    Bellshill 400’s
    Saphir Du Rheu 350’s
    Valseur Lido 180’s
    Blaklion 200’s
    Don Poli 300’s
    Cause of Causes 380’s

    Good price for Saphir Du Rheu; wasn’t that far behind in GC, may be improvement to come

    #1313245

    charlie87
    Participant
    • Total Posts 462

    Couple of quid (literally) on the following for the GC:

    Un Temps Pour Tout 500’s
    Bellshill 400’s
    Saphir Du Rheu 350’s
    Valseur Lido 180’s
    Blaklion 200’s
    Don Poli 300’s
    Cause of Causes 380’s

    Good price for Saphir Du Rheu; wasn’t that far behind in GC, may be improvement to come

    Cheers pal. Never been a fan of Saphir Du Rheu – a ‘nearly horse’ if ever there was one, but as you say he wasn’t that far behind in GC and if improvement does come then he could go well again. PN thinks very highly of SDR – although he talks about every horse like they’re the next Kauto Star!

    #1313393

    FrankieMac
    Participant
    • Total Posts 74

    Daft question alert – anyone have thoughts on whether Charbel is likely to be aimed at the CC or the Ryanair?

    I’m still not totally convinced Altior would have had him beat in the Arkle and see no reason why connections would look to avoid Altior or Douvan in favour of going up in trip. Though the AP odds would suggest that is believed to be the aim…

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