The only bet I have had so far is Blow By Blow to win any race @ 14/1. Beat some decent horses on the flat (Moon Racer, Bacardys, Death Duty) and skipped jumping last season due to a small injury, and connections wanting to preserve the horse’s novice status. Being a WPM horse I am sure the Supreme/Neptune debate will go on for months, but 14’s to cover both seems decent and I was impressed with his win in the Punchestown Grade One Bumper.
About to start work on my AP book for Cheltenham. Really looking forward to it, although I am going to modify what I do this year as last year far too much of my AP book was dead before the off. I am going to avoid specific races and stick more (especially this early) on the ‘to win any race market’. I am also going to avoid acca’s this early and stick win bets at bigger prices on the exchanges (hardly ground breaking stuff).
I don’t think anyone could argue that AP betting this early if not rife with risk –health, target and winning all need to go right and plenty can go wrong. That being said, I am definitely getting stuck in to some horses that have a clear target and are likely to run no more than 2-3 times between now and March. I don’t see the point of letting (what can often but not always be) an easy seasonal reappearance against inferior opposition reduce the odds, as well as maybe 1 more competitive run between Nov – Feb. Of course there are exceptions where we need to wait and see, Buveur D’Air being the best most recent example after switching from chasing to hurdling mid season, but horses like Altior @ 13/8 (CC), Nichols Canyon @ 6/1 (SH), Buveur D’Air @ 4/1 (CH) are good examples.