Cheltenham Bets 2018


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This topic contains 80 replies, has 32 voices, and was last updated by LostSoldier3 LostSoldier3 1 week ago.

Viewing 15 posts - 31 through 45 (of 82 total)
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  • #1293619

    Pontisback
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    • Total Posts 38

    I did Captain Forez for the 2018 Arkle the day of the Dovecote this year, got 66s. Very happy with that although his form really isn’t stacking up to much these days. Hoping he’ll come out at either Ayr or Aintree.

    I’d be all over Min for the Champion Chase, 12/1 on show currently is a great price.

    Another I’ve been impressed with all year is Brio Conti, he was only beaten 1/2 length by Constantine Bay at Haydock earlier in the year, then absolutely bolted up at Kempton on Saturday in the Martin Pipe consolation race. To me he looked every inch a chaser and Nicholls tends to do well with these types of horses. I’d be very interested in him for the JLT.

    I’ll back Melon for either the Arkle or Champion Chase the moment i hear anything regarding his target for the season.

    #1293625

    awracing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1

    MELON – 16/1 – ARKLE.

    Melon ran a cracking race to finish second in the Supreme on just his second run over hurdles.
    He’s got plenty of scope and Mullins has hinted he would ‘Probably’ go chasing.
    If he is sent chasing, that 16/1 will be long gone.

    #1293626
    Nathan Hughes
    Nathan Hughes
    Participant
    • Total Posts 15955

    Welcome to the forum awracing, I agree he ran a huge race and has bags of potential. If he does go chasing that is a very good price, if he were mine I think I’d like a shot at the Champion Hurdle 1st.

    good luck

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #1293636
    Ex RubyLight
    Ex RubyLight
    Participant
    • Total Posts 585

    MELON – 16/1 – ARKLE.

    Melon ran a cracking race to finish second in the Supreme on just his second run over hurdles.
    He’s got plenty of scope and Mullins has hinted he would ‘Probably’ go chasing.
    If he is sent chasing, that 16/1 will be long gone.

    The 16/1 looks good based on what evidence? If he jumps his fences as low as his hurdles at Leopardstown then you might even get 1000/1 on the ‘machine’. Too much guesswork in my opinion. He does travel very well, but what if he is stepped up in trip? Why not the JLT?

    #1293659
    Venture to Cognac
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 10222

    MELON – 16/1 – ARKLE.

    Melon ran a cracking race to finish second in the Supreme on just his second run over hurdles.
    He’s got plenty of scope and Mullins has hinted he would ‘Probably’ go chasing.
    If he is sent chasing, that 16/1 will be long gone.

    Welcome to TRF awracing :good:

    #1293665

    Jaymo74
    Participant
    • Total Posts 205

    The antipost markets haven’t been kind to me over the last few years. At the 2016 festival, over £2700 of A/P bets went without a run and the few tickets that did make it,didn’t really cut much ice. The 2017 festival wasn’t much better,with just over £1000 of A/P returning nothing (most of it on Melon and Crack Mome). Although i’m eager to get stuck in again at this early stage this year,i feel i need a change of tactics. Therefore,no bets will be struck for the 2018 festival until the NRNB comes into play. Some interesting novices i’ll be keeping on side come October are ; Cause Toujours (novice hurdles), Senewalk (novice hurdles) Tombstone (novice chasing) and a dark horse – Action Replay (novice chasing). All 4 should handsomely pay their way through the Winter months,with the latter starting off on a lowly mark and could develope into a Close Brothers candidate come the 2018 festival.

    I wish all yee brave folk that are willing to have a punt at this early stage good luck,but this year,its not for me #discipline

    #1293672
    Voleur
    Voleur
    Participant
    • Total Posts 99

    I’ve backed at this early stage : -Might Bite – Gold Cup 14/1
    -Apples Jade – Stayers 14/1
    -Min – Champion Chase 12/1
    -Disko – Ryanair 20/1
    -Monalee – RSA 16/1
    -Yorkhill and Un De Sceaux for the King George 10/1 and 14/1 respectively.

    I will probably add Might Bite to my King George book as 5/1 will look a silly price if he turns up in any kind of form.

    #1293677
    Middle_Of_March
    Middle_Of_March
    Participant
    • Total Posts 335

    Bit too early for me to play.

    But the first thing i do antepost will be a multi which includes Neon wolf (arkle) and senewalk for a novice hurdle. Not sure what one yet but I’ll keep an ear out for any clues

    #1293699

    Funkmaster Flex
    Participant
    • Total Posts 60

    Yanworth for the Stayers Hurdle at 14’s

    #1293711
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 20784

    Champion Hurdle:

    Buveur D’Air (5/1) beat My Tent Or Yours (50/1) by exactly the same distance as Annie Power, still improving and up to now a sound racehorse. Surely has much better than a 17% chance of winning in 2018. If I were a bookie wouldn’t want to lay Buveur D’ir at any more than 3’s. Case of the best value being the favourite. 50/1 My Tent or Yours might look a good each way bet as he’s been placed three times in the Champion and once in Supreme; but you’re throwing away the win part of such a bet (never wins anything, let alone a Champion (suspect temperament)) and in 2018 will be at an age where vast majority of hurdlers are on the downgrade…
    Mega Fortune and Bapaume aren’t listed on oddschecker, not in the same league as the Chamion Hurdle placed horses. So although Defi Du Sieul (8/1) won the Triumph with quite a bit in hand and should progress – has a lot to find to reach Champion Hurdle class. From the same ownership as the Champion Hurdle winner and is favourite in some lists for the Arkle.
    Of the Mullins horses: Who knows Faugheen (10/1) will be capable of after so much time off. At his very best he is the very best. However, missed two Champion Hurdles and must be odds on misses 2018 renewal. I gather Annie Power (16/1) might reach the racecourse at Punchestown, but will need to be at least as good as her 2015 Champion performance to even match last week’s Buveur. Majority don’t come back as good as they were after a long term injury. Although in her favour, connections now have more Mares Hurdle alternatives, so that isn’t as big a worry. Min‘s (16/1) injury is apparently not so bad, but will he come back to hurdles? One of those Mullins horses with at least four possible targets; Yorkhill (33/1) is another. If he didn’t run in this year’s Champion Hurdle, must be quite a ig doubt over 2018. Prefer the Supreme 2nd to the winner. Melon (16/1) is lightly raced which suggests there’s plenty more to come if keeping sound. One of the favourites for the Arkle and that’s probably why he’s (on the face of it) at a tempting 16/1 for the Champion Hurdle.
    Labaik (16/1) comes from the right yard, won the Supreme well but will temperament hold another year? No more than 50/50 I’d say.
    Petit Mouchoir (16/1) is of a good standard, but has probably reached his peak.
    If Yanworth (16/1) keeps over hurdles looks more of a stayer now.
    I was with Brain Power (20/1) last week, but disappointed for a second time at Cheltenham. Runs in cheek pieces and am not fully convinced temperament is up to it.
    Neon Wolf is one I thought about backing. Without being a bit too free early, letting the leader go and then making an unchracteristic mistake at the last… imo Would’ve won the Neptune with something to spare. Return to 2m could easily see a lot more improvement. But is Arkle favourite and (like Melon) am not going to make the same mistake in this race as I did last year (8/1 Altior).

    BUVEUR D’AIR 5/1

    value is everything
    #1293718
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 20784

    2018 RSA Chase:
    Amazed they chose the Neptune for Willoughby Court, earlier races shouted stamina. Although had a bit of an advantage in an uncontested lead and Neon Wolf is imo actually the better hurdler… Willoughby Court is a fine jumper of hurdles and more a stayer than the Harry Fry horse. No doubt now WC is equally effective on a bog or good ground. Hopefully connections don’t go for the JLT, but I’m pinning my hopes he’ll prove suited by 3m early next season anyway.

    WILLOUGHBY COURT 16/1

    value is everything
    #1293741
    Pointer
    Pointer
    Participant
    • Total Posts 96

    Jesus lads, I don’t want to be a spoilsport but you’d want an extra zero on the end of any of those considering the amount of injuries and alternative routes we’re seeing these days. I got burnt this year with Moon Racer and Thistlecrack and I won’t be putting on a cent in the future without nrnb or maybe something at 250/1 + on the machine B-)

    #1293748
    Ex RubyLight
    Ex RubyLight
    Participant
    • Total Posts 585

    Jesus lads, I don’t want to be a spoilsport but you’d want an extra zero on the end of any of those considering the amount of injuries and alternative routes we’re seeing these days. I got burnt this year with Moon Racer and Thistlecrack and I won’t be putting on a cent in the future without nrnb or maybe something at 250/1 + on the machine B-)

    Yeah, that’s a fair point. Only had two ante-post bets:
    Min for the JLT and Romain de Senam for the Novices Handicap Chase.
    Both of them missed the Festival due to injury and to making the cut.
    The odds offered right now are only good if we were already a month or two into the new season. But right now they are just crap…..

    #1293764

    rocky91
    Participant
    • Total Posts 371

    Yanworth for the Stayers Hurdle at 14’s

    Goes novice chasing

    #1293766

    rocky91
    Participant
    • Total Posts 371

    Yanworth

    Regardless of whether he runs in the Aintree Hurdle on the opening day of the Grand National meeting, a chasing campaign awaits next season.

    King said: “I think it looked as if he does want more of a trip. He travelled very well early on. They didn’t go very quick and down the hill he was caught flat-footed, then stayed on up the hill.

    “If we run him again, I would imagine we go two and a half at Aintree. If not, that would be him and he will go chasing next season.

    “He was jumping big, but that is why we put the cheekpieces on. He looked like he had run an awful race, but he stayed on up the hill and with another few strides would have been sixth.

    “I am pleased with the way he finished the race off.”

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