Cheltenham Bets 2018

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This topic contains 260 replies, has 47 voices, and was last updated by Ben_Bernanke Ben_Bernanke 3 months ago.

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  • #1337394

    muggins_here
    Participant
    • Total Posts 46

    Invitation only seems useful. Hopefully he gets there. He seems like a nice big chaser, with options.

    #1337938
    Venture to Cognac
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 13108

    Well, Stayers Hurdle entries out now, usually the time I start sticking up my Cheltenham Ante-Posts.

    Only a small summer bet in The Supreme, and there was always the chance that being a summer horse, Le Richebourg wouldn’t be the one, and that looks like being the case. Other poor early bets were More of That & Young Turk. Doesn’t seem much point including them as I’d be happy they ain’t going, and (edit) Sutton Place already added to that list. Sutton Place my biggest loser so far (NH Chase)

    Really cut down on The Champion Hurdle this year, with a fraction of what I normally bet. The market just looked stale to me, and it’s proved since last March. Very few tempting prices about at all. Three bets didn’t make it, including the already mentioned Sutton Place, and Samcro.

    As I say every year, The Champion Chase isn’t really my thing, but normally stumble into a couple of bets in it. Ordinary World is a strong fancy for The Grand Annual, but thought I’d cover him here just now. He owes me nothing after last season.

    This years Cross Country could see my two favourite horses in training clash, Cause of Causes, and Tiger Roll. There might be a chunky exacta. I had bet More of That for a couple of quid last year, but have since laid that back.

    Obviously ahead of the market in The Stayers with Sam Spinner, but laid a bit back, as been here before. Was always going to lay, as not a “book” I look to make a big profit on, I only want to go green. Bet 5 or 6 outsiders to go with Sam, and happily, two of them have made it.

    Gold Cup is the only race where I’ve staked as previous seasons, and it has went well, with less non runners than ever before. Very tricky as always, as I’m mainly playing outsiders. Main Fancies preseason were Bachasson & Sizing Codelco, while I was desperate for Cause of Causes & Tiger Roll to go here, but by October, it was clear they weren’t. None of them were that costly in the grand scheme of things, the costly ones were amongst the book, the likes of Go Conquer, A Toi Phil, and Alpha Des Obeaux doing plenty of damage. Very very happy that Bachasson is in there, and everything crossed that they send him, but by no means certain.

    Non Runners
    Midnight Shadow, Sutton Place, Ex Patriot, Clan Des Obeaux, Campeador, Moon Racer, Foxtail Hill, Total Recall, Rock The Kasbah, Singlefarpayment, Le Richebourg, Tycoon Prince, Shades of Midnight, Tombstone, Fagan, Mall Dini, Peregrine Run, Pylonthepressure

    Cashed Out, Livelovelaugh

    • This reply was modified 5 months ago by Venture to Cognac Venture to Cognac. Reason: Supreme Novices
    • This reply was modified 5 months ago by Venture to Cognac Venture to Cognac. Reason: Shaneshill added
    • This reply was modified 5 months ago by Venture to Cognac Venture to Cognac. Reason: Ex Patriot added
    • This reply was modified 5 months ago by Venture to Cognac Venture to Cognac. Reason: Stayers Updated
    • This reply was modified 4 months, 3 weeks ago by Venture to Cognac Venture to Cognac. Reason: Various updates
    • This reply was modified 4 months, 3 weeks ago by Venture to Cognac Venture to Cognac. Reason: Various updates
    • This reply was modified 4 months, 3 weeks ago by Venture to Cognac Venture to Cognac. Reason: Arkle added
    • This reply was modified 4 months, 2 weeks ago by Venture to Cognac Venture to Cognac. Reason: RSA & Supreme updated
    • This reply was modified 4 months, 2 weeks ago by Venture to Cognac Venture to Cognac. Reason: Ryanair updated
    • This reply was modified 4 months, 1 week ago by Venture to Cognac Venture to Cognac. Reason: Various updates
    • This reply was modified 4 months, 1 week ago by Venture to Cognac Venture to Cognac. Reason: Gold Cup and Mares updated
    • This reply was modified 4 months, 1 week ago by Venture to Cognac Venture to Cognac. Reason: Non Runners Added
    • This reply was modified 4 months ago by Venture to Cognac Venture to Cognac. Reason: Various updates
    • This reply was modified 3 months, 3 weeks ago by Venture to Cognac Venture to Cognac. Reason: Various updates
    • This reply was modified 3 months, 2 weeks ago by Venture to Cognac Venture to Cognac. Reason: Non Runners Added
    • This reply was modified 3 months, 1 week ago by Venture to Cognac Venture to Cognac. Reason: Non Runners Added
    #1337991

    Cheltenham Novice Chase
    Participant
    • Total Posts 111

    Thanks VTC. Some somewhat amazing odds there. I haven’t tried the exchanges myself but here are my bets.

    2m Supreme Novice Hurdle: Slate House 17.39-1, Real Steel 15.2-1
    2m Arkle Novice Chase: Petit Mouchoir 8.39-1
    2m Champion Hurdle: Melon 10.83-1
    2m 4f Mares Hurdle: Let’s Dance 10.88-1
    4m National Hunt Novice Chase: Fagan 20-1

    2m 5f Ballymore (Neptune) Novice Hurdle: Samcro 10.83-1
    3m RSA Novice Chase: Fountains Windfall 10.88-1
    2m Champion Chase: Ar Mad 21.7-1, Min 7.56-1
    3m 7f Cross Country Chase: Cause of Causes 7.56-1
    2m Champion Bumper: Stay Humble 22-1

    2m 5f JLT Novice Chase: Willoughby Court 6-1
    2m 4f Ryanair Chase: Top Notch 7.58-1
    3m Stayers Hurdle: L’Ami Serge 17.39-1, Finian’s Oscar 8-1
    2m 1f Mares Novice Hurdle: Dame De Compagnie 10.83-1 , Countister 13-1

    2m Triumph Novice Hurdle: Gumball 15.2-1, Mitchouka 17.39-1
    3m Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle: Blow by Blow 14-1
    3m 2f Gold Cup Chase: Might Bite 10-1

    I’m getting very excited by Cheltenham now. It’s within sight. Not long to go now lads. Best of luck to all of you.

    #1337992
    Middle_Of_March
    Middle_Of_March
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1811

    Some fantastic prices there. Well played bud. Seven of those I agree with (Samcro, Top Notch, Petit Mouchoir, DDC, COC, Finians Oscar and Willougby Court) and some I’m absolutely dead against.

    One in the latter category for me is Melon. Other than him being by Mullins, I don’t get the attraction with the horse at all. He just doesn’t look anywhere near good enough to win a champion Hurdle if you ask me.

    #1338013

    Cheltenham Novice Chase
    Participant
    • Total Posts 111

    With regards to Melon I only went on him because I found the odds of Buveur D’Air too prohibitive. With a gun held to my head I think Buveur D’Air will win convingly but I don’t get as much pleasure from a winning bet on a short priced favourite and to get a decent sum in return on Buveur D’Air you’d have to put a lot down.

    Ar Mad is my only ‘heart’ bet. I just love this horse. He’s probably not quite good enough to win but I’ll enjoy watching him try.

    #1338031
    Venture to Cognac
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 13108

    Cheers CNC, best of luck, especially with Fagan & Cause Of Causes lol

    #1338261

    ham
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1514

    Your stayers book just got even better!

    #1338267
    Venture to Cognac
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 13108

    Thanks Ham, sure did, very very happy with that. Hopefully the mares allowance will encourage them to go The Stayers route, fingers crossed.

    Was tempted to lay around 17’s to 19’s, post race, have left her for now, as already green, and it’s a race I like to be “green” in, rather than looking to make a profit pre-race.

    #1338387
    Voleur
    Voleur
    Participant
    • Total Posts 657

    I’ve backed at this early stage : -Might Bite – Gold Cup 14/1
    -Apples Jade – Stayers 14/1
    -Min – Champion Chase 12/1
    -Disko – Ryanair 20/1
    -Monalee – RSA 16/1
    -Yorkhill and Un De Sceaux for the King George 10/1 and 14/1 respectively.

    I will probably add Might Bite to my King George book as 5/1 will look a silly price if he turns up in any kind of form.

    With just under two months to go till the festival, I thought it would be a good time to take stock of what I have at this stage, for my own benefit more than anything. These were the bets I did in the immediate aftermath of last years festival, some of which I am very happy with, others I will just pretend never happened (Yorkhill and UDS in the King George :wacko: ).

    Only counting those that I posted on here, the rest of my ante post bets at this stage are:

    Supreme:
    Fayonagh 16/1 :negative:
    Annamix 12/1 :negative:
    Red Jack 25/1
    Antey 33/1
    Reel Steel 33/1

    Champion Hurdle:
    Labaik 25/1 :negative:
    Buveur D’air 7/2
    Faugheen 6/1

    Mares Hurdle:
    Apples Jade 5/2

    Ballymore:
    Samcro 10/1 through 4/1

    Champion Bumper:
    Hollowgraphic 20/1

    JLT:
    Rathvinden 33/1
    Monalee 25/1
    Al Boum Photo 16/1

    Ryanair:
    Min 14/1
    Top Notch 16/1 each way

    Triumph:
    Gumball 25/1
    Apples Shakira 20/1

    Albert Bartlett:
    Cracking Smart 10/1 – 8/1

    Gold Cup:
    Coney Island 33/1

    Any Race:
    Footpad 14/1
    Samcro 10/1

    Other than the Supreme, I am pretty happy with my position going into the new festival at Leopardstown, one or two bubbles could be severely burst there however. I’ll try not to get involved in any handicaps until 5 day decs are made.

    #1338399
    Middle_Of_March
    Middle_Of_March
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1811

    Some brilliant bets in there like Apples Shakira at 20s and 10s Samcro.

    I’m on both of those but at 5/1 and I thought I was doing well.

    Likewise, I thought my 12/1 On Hollowgraohic was huge but how on earth did you find 20s? Thought he went into 12s immediately after his first run this season and within 24 hours was 10/1 best price.

    I don’t get involved in the handicaps until the 5 day stage either. Though I think I’ve uncovered a plot as well as the plot that everyone knows about (Vaniteux the latter).

    Good luck

    #1338403
    Voleur
    Voleur
    Participant
    • Total Posts 657

    Thanks MoM, best of luck to you too.

    re Hollowgraphic, I took the 20/1 before he made his comeback this season after going through the market to find the Mullins ‘one.’ I was very taken by his effort behind Vision Des Flos at Punchestown last season and I thought there would be plenty of improvement to come from him. Seems like he’s going in the right direction at least.

    #1338404
    Middle_Of_March
    Middle_Of_March
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1811

    It really is a cracking bet you’ve got there with him.

    He’s only the second antepost bumper bet I’ve ever placed (the first was If The Cap Fits last season at 50/1 who wasn’t entered) and I really like the horse.

    Jockey Mullins said on On The Line the night before that his horse for the season was Hollowgraohic so I watched his run that day ready with the bumper market on screen. He was excellent to my eye and took the 12s immediately after.

    I’ve made it clear on the Ballymore race thread since page 1 that Samcro any race is the antepost angle with him and I backed him from 5s down to 6/4 in that market.

    When he went evens at Christmas, I started putting him in my multiples when the Ballymore was looking the target.

    I think he’s an absolute monster of a horse and the best novice in many a year.

    #1340513
    charlie87
    charlie87
    Participant
    • Total Posts 670

    Just re-reading through this thread. Plenty of singles, doubles, trebles and L15’s still live from bets placed last year. The one that stands out is ‘atthepost’ who has a L15 on

    CH- BUV AR DARE 4/1
    GOLD CUP- OUR DUKE 12/1
    CROSS COUNTRY- CAUSE OF CAUSES 9/1
    NEPTUNE- SAMCRO 16/1

    GLGL. I suppose you want Faugheen to reaffirm last performance and not go Cheltenham, Our Duke to bolt up in the IGC and CC probably just to get round in one piece before another tilt at defending his CC crown. Lot needs to go right but you have some superb prices there!

    #1340949
    charlie87
    charlie87
    Participant
    • Total Posts 670

    Skybet currently have
    Samcro/BDA/Footpad treble boosted to 5/1 from 3/1

    #1340950

    Jasolong
    Participant
    • Total Posts 379

    I do some strange multiples for Cheltenham but it pulled off last year.

    I pick 2 horses from about 4-6 races at the festival and cover the multiples.
    For example if it picked 5 races I would cover the trebles – 4 folds and 5 fold. That does work out to be a lot of multiples but I love betting like this.
    Last year I had 2 horses from the following:

    Champion hurdle: yanworth or Buveur Dair
    Mares Hurdle: VVm or Apples jade
    Ryainair: UDS or josses Hill
    JLT: yorkhill or top notch
    Gold cup: cue card or sizing John
    Triumph hurdle: DDS or Charlie Parcs

    Laid out about £200 got back about £4500

    This year I’ve done one already and plan to do couple more:

    I’ve got:

    Champion hurdle: BD only at 2/1
    Ballymore: Samcro (2/1) and on the blind side (8/1)
    Gold cup: might bite (13/2) and sizing John (9/2)
    Ryainair: UDS (5/1) top notch (6/1)

    I’m very happy with this at the moment and I feel like I should get atleast 3/4 winners from those races

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