CAN DENMAN WIN THE HENNESSY ?

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This topic contains 7 replies, has 1 voice, and was last updated by  oldjohn69 7 years, 10 months ago.

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  • #16854

    oldjohn69
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    Denman has been a favourite of mine for years and I would love him to win the Hennessy. However common sense tells me no because he will be giving lumps of weight to
    a numerically strong field and I question his ability to front run against so many lightly weighted horses without at least a recent run to blow away the cobwebs.Similar comments apply to his stablemate,Neptune Collonges. I will not be entirely shocked if Denman wins
    but my eyes will be searching the bottom weights at a value price. I feel Denman would need to be at least 3 lengths clear between the last 2 fences if he is to hang on.

    #329637
    Rubyisgodinthesaddle
    Rubyisgodinthesaddle
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    Denman is proven unlike the rest of opposition.

    He has no right to beat the Handicap last year with What a Friend going on to do very good things. Their is no What a Friend this year and the like of Wierd Al who doesn’t look the most natural over fences.

    I hope Denman grind them into the ground

    #329682
    The Ante-Post King
    The Ante-Post King
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    Come March and Denman is carrying level weights against the 4 second season chasers,Diamond Harry,Pandorama,Weird al and Burton Port,people will say how the hell did they get in on 10 stone.For as much as i see Diamond as my number 1 Hennessey fancy,i see Weird Al as the better Gold cup horse,they need to deliver on Saturday! Denman cannot give that amount of weight away this year,not to these 4 anyway!

    #329688
    Gingertipster
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    Do we have to put the same arguements in two threads in two sections?

    Hennessey
    Big race section.

    value is everything
    #329692
    The Ante-Post King
    The Ante-Post King
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    Do we have to put the same arguements in two threads in two sections?

    Hennessey
    Big race section.

    Ooh dear me Mr Grumpy,i was just supporting OldJohns thread! Anybody would think your selection for the race was a Non runner! :shock:

    #329730

    oldjohn69
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    Do we have to put the same arguements in two threads in two sections?

    Hennessey
    Big race section.

    Did I miss something Ginger ? Was there an earlier post which I failed to read ? I would dearly like to see Denman win but with the weight concession and so many runners to try to take him on, he will be susceptible to the final challengers. Even Arkle could not concede impossible amounts of weight to the likes of Dormant and Stalbridge Colonist etc.

    #329736
    Gingertipster
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    John,

    The questions you ask are impossible to answer without saying exactly the same things as in the Hennessey thread in the Big Race Discussion section. That is why it is called what it is called after all.

    GT (Mr Grumpy)

    Hennessey Cognac Gold Cup

    A third Hennessey for Denman would be historic, will be cheering him on to do so. With only eight horses carrying their correct weight, you’d thimk this an uncompetitive race. It is not. There are many out of the weights capable of improvement.

    Denman 10 11-12: One of the top 20 chasers ever seen. A big brute who runs rivals in to submission. Due to be reunited with Gold Cup winning jockey Sam Thomas. Showed he was as good as ever in this last year, but probably not firing when fell in Aon Chase. Not far below best in the Gold Cup. Capable of running well fresh, a lot seems to depend on what Denman looks like in the paddock. Looked in cracking shape before the Hennessey and (reportedly) well at Cheltenham. To me he disappointed walking around before the Aon, dull in coat and unenthusiastic. Although very genuine once racing, has some quirks. Sometimes proving difficult at the start. It wouldn’t be the biggest surprise to see this well loved horse plant himself one day. In just over a month’s time Denman will be 11 years old, most of that age are on the downgrade, certainly unlikely to improve. At around 4/1 hardly represents value, but may well shorten up further with public interest.

    Neptunes Collonges 9 10-8: One of Denman’s stable companions; dropped significantly in the weights for his absence, not seen since Gold Cup day 2009. Suffered a tendon injury there when a disappointing fourth, 8 ½ lengths behind Denman. Beat Notre Pere (then top class) 5 lengths in Irish Hennessey (Grade 1). Best on a soft surface. If fully fit and injury hasn’t taken its toll (quite big Ifs) looks well handicapped.

    Taranis 9 10-4: Another Nicholls runner, lightly raced and prone to injury, but has an exceptional record fresh. Won Cotswold Chase by 6 lengths, getting 6lbs from second Carruthers. On the face of it that looks good form. For that to be the case you must believe Joe Lively, who gave Taranis 10lbs and beaten only 7 ¼ lengths, produced his only good run in two years.

    Madison Du Berlais 9 10-1: Ex-winner of the race, but although only nine seems on the decline. Below par on all starts last term and looks of doubtful temperament. Flattered second in King George, running on to beat some who chased winner. Also distant third behind Kauto Star in Betfair Chase in 09. Second, down in grade over hurdles on reappearance after making most. Possibly best when able to dominate from the front these days.

    Silver By Nature 8 10-0: Could be one to keep an eye on this season. One of the most progressive chasers in 09/10. Unlucky second in Welsh National and winner of Blue Square Gold Cup in tremendous fashion by 15 lengths. Has since had a chipped bone in a knee, not thought to be a serious injury. Those performances were over further than this and will probably need very soft ground to bring abundant stamina in to play (unlikely).

    Carruthers 7 10-0 (9-13): More consistent than overall form suggests given a prominent position and give in the ground. Unable to dictate when beaten by Taranis in Cotswold Chase last term. Unlucky to be pipped for third in Gold Cup. Taking first two on up front and beaten by one coming from way back. Unable to achieve his normal prominent position when well beaten on reappearance. Part owned by Lord Oaksey and from the small yard of his son-in-law. Carruthers would look over-priced if it’s soft enough for him.

    The Tother One 9 10-0 (9-12): Should be suited by the trip, but has two ways of running. Best form early in the season. Even so looks ungenuine with a poor win to run ratio. Four lengths second to Nacarat in eight runner Charlie Hall on reappearance, racing with a high head carriage. Not sure to do as well in much larger field if taking his chance.

    Burton Port 6 10-0 (9-10): Another second season Nicky Henderson / Trevor Hemmings Hennessey winner? Placed in RSA, staying on after pushed along some way out, doing best of stable’s three runners. An increased test should play to his strengths. Also won two other top novices, Reynoldstown and Mildmay. Does not look especially well handicapped, but young enough to improve. Has winning knack, just doing enough. Gerraghty not able to do the weight switched to China Rock.

    Diamond Harry 7 10-0 (9-10): Exceptional record fresh, never been beaten first time out, should see him run well here. Certainly well handicapped on hurdles form. Could yet improve over fences. Two wins over larger obstacles (including here) before disappointing in RSA at Cheltenham, making mistakes. Best on a soft surface. Sometimes gives the impression he’s quirky, but has a good win to run ratio. Usual pilot Timmy Murphy going to Newcastle and Darryll Jacob takes over. Sometimes hangs left and jockey seems at pains to keep to the rail. Which is often not ideal in a finish at Newbury.

    Weird Al 7 10-0 (9-10): Genuine unbeaten chaser. Won three novice chases, looking a serious RSA candidate before a small fracture in front leg cut season short. Raced only on a soft surface. Dead-heated with Little Josh on reappearance, who franked the form in no uncertain terms winning the Paddy Power. Weird Al made up a lot of ground late on, just getting up to share the prize at Carlisle over an inadequate trip of 2 ½ miles. Did finish very tired there and yet to run in a big field. Provided he does not bounce, looks well weighted despite 4lbs out of the handicap. Paddy Brennen probably rides.

    Big Fella Thanks 8 10-0 (9-9) Changed stables from Nicholls to Ferdy Murphy, but seems as good as ever judging by second on reappearance. However, gave the race away after looking the winner. Like he tried to do at Newbury last term. Looked likely to hack up before badly idling. At least those tendencies make him difficult for the handicapper to get a handle on. Twice looked well handicapped in Grand National but failed to stay. This trip should be within his compass. Not one to bet win only.

    Dream Alliance 9 10-0 (9-9) Lightly raced, poor jumping out and out stayer. Won last years Welsh National with a better than usual round of jumping, only significant error at the last. 11 lengths second to Denman in his first Hennessey back in 07 and now 7lbs worse off with that rival.

    Niche Market 9 10-0 (9-6) Uncharacteristic mistakes before falling on reappearance / first start for Nicholls, who needs to get some improvement out of this seemingly exposed horse. Favourite; did not get in to usual prominent position at Wincanton, or when disappointed in Grand National. May jump better up with the pace. Over 7 lengths third to Denman (on same terms) in last years Hennessey for Bob Buckler after disappointing run in same Badger Beers race. Just touched off in AON Chase, so clearly goes well at Newbury. Best on going no softer than good-soft.

    Pandorama 7 10-0 (9-6): Progressive and prolific, lightly raced Irish chaser. Found to have blood in nose at start on intended reappearance, favourite at time of withdrawl. Kept to a soft surface, obviously fragile and now unraced for 11 months, reportedly due to muscle problems. Won two of Ireland’s best novice chases before his enforced leave and clearly has potential for improvement.

    Hey Big Spender 7 10-0 (9-8): Is 6lbs out of the handicap (provided Denman runs). Good jumper up until bad mistake and unseating in Jewson Novices Handicap at Cheltenham Festival. Going well at the time. Then fell at Aintree only other start in 09/10. Few minor mistakes on reappearance at Carlisle. Pulling quite hard yet stayed on to beat Big Fella Thanks a length off same terms as here. Probably helped by that rival idling badly when seemingly sure to win. Hey Big Spender has scope for further improvement if jumping consistently and settling better. Although acts on soft going, good ground might help slightly suspect stamina.

    Razor Royale 8 10-0 (9-4): Racing Post winner, beat Nacarat a neck in receipt of 17lbs. Remote 4th in Scottish Grand National, failed to stay 4 miles and weakened 11th of 12 finishers (mistakes) over 1 furlong less than Hennessey trip. Inconsistent and can look unwilling. 10 lbs out of the handicap here. Unlikely starter judged by Betfair price and stable jockey riding Weird Al.

    Hills Of Aran 8 10-0 (9-3): Winner of two novice chases in summer of 09 before injury. Returned over hurdles and respectable 5th behind Grand Crus last weekend. Run well with two quick runs before. Lot more of these appear better handicapped (11lbs out of the weights) and difficult to know just how much chasing ability he retains. Yet to prove himself over this trip.

    Rare Bob 8 10-0 (9-3): Irish chaser, winner of the poorly named “Champions Novices Chase” in April 09 (3m1f on soft) Fair 3rd of 4 finishers at 2 ¾ miles, beaten 6 lengths by Glencove Marina giving 3lbs on reappearance. Judging from Betfair price is unlikely starter from 11lbs out of the handicap.

    Yes, Denman can win a third Hennessey, but it is unlikely. He represents poor value at current prices (for reasons above), but the public will back him anyway.

    value is everything
    #329762

    leither
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    I love denman he is a big srong animal but i cant help feeling a bit to much is being asked to give even more this year to some very usful animals i am sure he will run well as long as he comes back safe and sound.

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