Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf 2017

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This topic contains 62 replies, has 17 voices, and was last updated by  Sunspangled 11 months, 3 weeks ago.

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  • #1324295
    stevecaution
    stevecaution
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    Us Navy Flag is a tough horse however he has had two tough races in a short space of time, so I feel he can be confidently taken on here. I think the very solid MASAR offers cracking value-especially as the Appleby horses seem to be flying at the moment. :good:

    What happened to the notion that Masar was a “Slow Tub Of Crud” Judge? :whistle:

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1324319
    CharlesOlney
    CharlesOlney
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    • Total Posts 1993

    I feel sorry for U S Navy Flag bettors but I can’t lie I was happy to see the colt diverted to the Juvenile as it makes James Garfield’s chances a whole lot better.

    #1324461
    raymo61
    raymo61
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    I have had a few quid each way On CATHOLIC BOY at 10/1 here!!
    I think ours are all much of a muchness and have gone for the home team

    :good: :good:

    #1324464
    thejudge1
    thejudge1
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    Us Navy Flag is a tough horse however he has had two tough races in a short space of time, so I feel he can be confidently taken on here. I think the very solid MASAR offers cracking value-especially as the Appleby horses seem to be flying at the moment. :good:

    What happened to the notion that Masar was a “Slow Tub Of Crud” Judge? :whistle:

    You got me there Steve. I think his tubby lard stomach will pull him over the line and outstay these blatant non-stayers :wacko:

    #1324502
    thejudge1
    thejudge1
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    • Total Posts 2255

    Anyway have now locked in MASAR, backed him tonight, missed the boat somewhat but a winners a winner and 9-2 BOG NRNB still very nice :good:

    #1324542
    Kentucky Spring
    Kentucky Spring
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    • Total Posts 377

    Us Navy Flag is a tough horse however he has had two tough races in a short space of time, so I feel he can be confidently taken on here. I think the very solid MASAR offers cracking value-especially as the Appleby horses seem to be flying at the moment. :good:

    What happened to the notion that Masar was a “Slow Tub Of Crud” Judge? :whistle:

    You got me there Steve. I think his tubby lard stomach will pull him over the line and outstay these blatant non-stayers :wacko:

    But this is not a stayers straight and uphill mile, this track will be for speed embeded pedigrees. The Scat Daddy son Mendelssohn fits the bill with Beckford right up there. In my opinion :yahoo: trained by the Best is Mendelssohn as well :whistle:

    Best Wishes
    Silk

    #1324569
    Middle_Of_March
    Middle_Of_March
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    • Total Posts 2001

    Us Navy Flag is a tough horse however he has had two tough races in a short space of time, so I feel he can be confidently taken on here. I think the very solid MASAR offers cracking value-especially as the Appleby horses seem to be flying at the moment. :good:

    I’ve just taken the 6/1 NRNB with paddy Power on him for this

    Think he will go off shorter at the very least.

    Happy with 6/1 Masar but it’s a lottery of a race. One of my smallest bets of the breeders cup which, considering it has long of European entries, is unusual.

    I think it’s a weak renewal personally but at least I’ve got value.

    I don’t think the Godolphin colt is anything out of the ordinary but I just think that might be enough to win.

    Wouldn’t surprise me if this is the race with the biggest priced winner of the entire breeders cup. If Masar doesn’t win, I can see a big upset.

    #1324570
    stevecaution
    stevecaution
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    • Total Posts 8298

    I took a chance on Sands Of Mali. He was hopeless in the Middle Park but his Gimcrack form is strong and reads better than James Garfield through Invincible Army and Nebo.

    At 33/1 I feel there may be a chance of a shocker if Fahey’s colt can rediscover his York form.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1324583
    Voleur
    Voleur
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    • Total Posts 658

    I’ve gone for another Middle Park blow out in Rajasinghe at 25/1. I’ve tentatively put a line through his run in the Middle Park due to the soft conditions, this horse runs like he wants concrete, and he’ll get the next best thing here. The wide draw and step up to a mile are a concern, but if he was to ever get a mile, it would be at a track like Del Mar. The Middle Park seems to be the predominant form line running through the race, but since both races could not be further apart in terms of track, ground conditions and trip, it makes the whole thing terribly messy. I suspect there will be some drastic place reversals.

    Mendelssohn has a very likeable profile for this and should be clear favourite in my eyes, I feel people aren’t willing to take U S Navy Flag’s form at face value. This could be because he had a slow start to his career, or because he isn’t your typical ‘sexy’ Dewhurst winner. Expert Eye flopping and O’Brien having the 1-2-3-4 doesn’t help I suppose.

    Whether U S Navy Flag or Mendelssohn go on to much as 3 year old’s, I wouldn’t be confident, and I don’t think he was a vintage winner of the Dewhurst. But purely in relation to the group of juvenile colts we’re dealing with this year, I think the Dewhurst form is the second most reliable after the Racing Post Trophy.

    Mendelssohn to win at 11/2.
    Rajasinghe each way at 25/1.

    #1324585
    LostSoldier3
    LostSoldier3
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    • Total Posts 1739

    Has anyone apart from Raymo actually looked at the US horses? Folly to write off Catholic Boy, Snapper Sinclair and co imo, especially if we’re generally saying these European colts aren’t much cop.

    #1324589
    Degaussed
    Degaussed
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    Has anyone apart from Raymo actually looked at the US horses? Folly to write off Catholic Boy, Snapper Sinclair and co imo, especially if we’re generally saying these European colts aren’t much cop.

    Oddly enough, I’ve just watched Catholic Boy’s run in the With Anticipation stakes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QbvgNZvZa9w&feature=youtu.be

    He gets a hefty knock on the corner and then didn’t get the clearest of runs, but he’s won that very impressively. You’d say he would improve significantly from his Beyer rating of 71, and he’s bred to be good.

    I can’t find anything on Snapper Sinclair, but if anyone has any footage please share.

    I definitely think the angle to take in these Juvenile races is to look at the US Runners. At a slightly bigger price Untamed Domain is interesting, based on this video:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eI-NP9_or6s&feature=youtu.be

    There doesn’t seem to be an abundance of pace in that race, judging by the fact the two pace setters have finished in the mix at the end. He’s done really well to come from behind, didn’t get the clearest of runs and actually brings in the highest Beyer figure of the US horses.

    #1324590
    LostSoldier3
    LostSoldier3
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    Snapper Sinclair video here Degaussed:

    https://twitter.com/TVG/status/905559602271363072

    #1324594
    Voleur
    Voleur
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    • Total Posts 658

    If we are to trust the ratings (are UK and US Official Ratings cross-referenceable?), the US horses such as Catholic Boy have more than a stone to find on some of our horses such as Mendelssohn. Usually this isn’t something I’d rely on exclusively, but it’s very hard to accurately evaluate the form of these twice, thrice raced American juveniles a couple of days before the race without any sort of background knowledge.

    Looking at it from another angle, Snapper Sinclair was all out to beat the Wesley Ward trained Arawak by under 2 lengths last time out. When Arawak came over to Ascot for the Coventry, he finished 12th behind Rajasinghe. Now I understand there are a multitude of reasons why Arawak may not have ran to form that day, but when we are trying to evaluate two completely separate and alien form lines such as the ones we are dealing with, any little cross-overs such as this are worth putting stock in.

    #1324599
    Degaussed
    Degaussed
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    • Total Posts 547

    If we are to trust the ratings (are UK and US Official Ratings cross-referenceable?), the US horses such as Catholic Boy have more than a stone to find on some of our horses such as Mendelssohn. Usually this isn’t something I’d rely on exclusively, but it’s very hard to accurately evaluate the form of these twice, thrice raced American juveniles a couple of days before the race without any sort of background knowledge.

    Looking at it from another angle, Snapper Sinclair was all out to beat the Wesley Ward trained Arawak by under 2 lengths last time out. When Arawak came over to Ascot for the Coventry, he finished 12th behind Rajasinghe. Now I understand there are a multitude of reasons why Arawak may not have ran to form that day, but when we are trying to evaluate two completely separate and alien form lines such as the ones we are dealing with, any little cross-overs such as this are worth putting stock in.

    It’s very hard to compare form across nations, but the US horses are going to be where the value lies with our bookmakers. It also depends on where you’re taking your ratings from, I suppose.

    #1324601
    Voleur
    Voleur
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    • Total Posts 658

    The ratings I’m using for European runners are the Official Ratings published by the BHA, the US ratings I’m referring to are those denoted as ‘official’ on the At The Races website. As for what the source of these ‘official’ US ratings is, I’m not sure. The US equivalent of the BHA, the NTRA, does not publish ratings as far as I am aware, so I assume they come from third-parties. I could be wrong on both fronts.

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