Betlarge ‘pro-gambler’ report – August

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This topic contains 46 replies, has 1 voice, and was last updated by betlarge betlarge 5 years ago.

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  • #450437
    ricky lake
    ricky lake
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    • Total Posts 2413

    This whole value concept is 20 years out of date , it was a good idea when Marl Cotton first introduced it , but wow has the game changed since then .

    Ginger is sadly stuck in that time warp , and tries to still preach it

    what was value at 7 am , will be in tatters now , but by off time could be 2 times the original perceived value price

    ie ,2/1 looks value early , now trading 11/8 , but by post time could be 9/2 !!!

    The markets are much more intelligent and aligned nowadays so its very much a moving feast !!!

    I think Mike has been brilliant sharing his monthly progress , there is a lot to be learned from them

    imo

    Ricky

    #450442
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 24175

    This whole value concept is 20 years out of date , it was a good idea when Marl Cotton first introduced it , but wow has the game changed since then .

    Ginger is sadly stuck in that time warp , and tries to still preach it

    what was value at 7 am , will be in tatters now , but by off time could be 2 times the original perceived value price

    ie ,2/1 looks value early , now trading 11/8 , but by post time could be 9/2 !!!

    The markets are much more intelligent and aligned nowadays so its very much a moving feast !!!

    I think Mike has been brilliant sharing his monthly progress , there is a lot to be learned from them

    imo

    Ricky

    Perhaps you’d like to enlighten us Ricky.

    How has the "game changed" in such a way that "value" does not to matter anymore? :?

    Don’t punters these days need to identify horses who’s chance is better than the betting suggests?

    Of course, the game has "changed" from 20 years ago. eg. In my opinion

    trainer form

    is much more relevent now than it was then. But that just means the things that have "changed" since 20 years ago – need to be taken in to account when evaluating which horse/s are

    "value"

    . :wink:

    value is everything
    #450446
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 24175

    edit
    I thought the score of the footy last night would be 4-0 but it was 6/1 so went 5-0 and 6-0 instead at the value and now my wallet is a little lighter than it should of been. :(

    Sadly Nathan, not everyone is good at identifying value. :lol:

    value is everything
    #450447
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 24175

    The game must be easy to have 6 or 7 value runners in every race. :lol:

    It is unusual for me to back "6 or 7" Nathan, but I think you know that. :wink: Usually just 2 or 3…

    You and Gord should realise Mike bets in a similar way to myself. Backing horses he believes are value. Backing main bets, smaller bets and even saver bets. Difference is just identifying "value" is enough for Mike, not trying to identify

    how much

    value is in the bet.

    value is everything
    #450451
    Nathan Hughes
    Nathan Hughes
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 19342

    edit
    I thought the score of the footy last night would be 4-0 but it was 6/1 so went 5-0 and 6-0 instead at the value and now my wallet is a little lighter than it should of been. :(

    Sadly Nathan, not everyone is good at identifying value. :lol:

    True, I identified the winner but went with the value which I was not good at identifying. :| Some people maybe good at identifying winners which in the long run may produced a profit as they are not running up the perceived value losses.

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #450454
    The Ante-Post King
    The Ante-Post King
    Participant
    • Total Posts 8792

    August was a pretty disappointing month as although I finished about 3 points up overall, I was much better placed by the middle of the month before things went pear-shaped in a hurry.

    I was busy again, staking 292 bets for that meagre profit which takes my ongoing profit to 28pts from 908 bets in total. (Nb. by ‘bets’ I really mean races as I very often split stakes, have savers etc. However the amount staked per race is always the same.)

    Those figures for August are concerning alone Mike but the overall profit of 28 points from over 900 wagers might look promising but the fact that you have physically placed getting for a 1000 bets would be enough to blow a fuse in my head.Good luck for the future and respect for putting this difficult thread up.For the record I tried and failed to make it pay full time backing just horses as I couldn’t afford to pay all my utility bills,food for the Gals,fuel tax and insurance on my vehicles and the odd bottle of Champers.To be a Pro you have to cover all costs not just your annual Timeform membership Ginge!! :shock:

    #450459
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 24175

    Shouldn’t Something believed a true 4/1 shot available @ 7/1 have more money staked than if it were only available @ 5/1?

    Well I would agree with this, but I’m simply not skilled enough to so accurately gauge the ‘value-o-meter’ of a race! It’s mathematically sound in theory but in real-world application it would just complicate matters for me.

    Mike

    Mike you dont need to be skilled to understand the ‘Value-o-meter’ as its just a figment of Gingers imagination turned obsession. When Odds-compilers make a horse a 7/1 shot that price is based purely on an individuals opinion,

    opinion

    ". Just as my assessment of its chance is only my "

    opinion

    " It’s me against him….

    in Gingers dream world he might make it a 4/1 chance for whatever reason and so he lumps on and the horse goes off at 10/1 and loses. Where’s the ‘Value’in that?

    opinion

    is the horse has a 20% (fair 4/1) chance… Why would I not want to put more money on it at 7/1 than if I could only get 11/2? The margin of error has been increased. 11/2 = 15.4%, so 20 – 15.4 = 4.6% margin. Where as with 7/1, 20 – 12.5 = 7.5% margin. So (with a bigger margin for error) I am less likely to be wrong. ie For the 7/1 bet to be poor value I’d have to be 7.5% out, where as at 11/2 I’d only need to be 4.6% out to be poor value. And I can win more money at 7’s!

    For someone who preaches ‘Value is everything’……Stupid statement that it is as snaffling 40/1 on a horse and backing it to win only is like jumping out of an Aeroplane without a reserve parachute,the horse gets backed into 10/1 and finishes 2nd, where’s the value in that?

    :lol: Only this week I backed (and tipped on here) Aquilonius @ 43/1 and 47/1 on the machine. Yet if I wanted to back it "each way" as you suggest Gordie Boy, I’d need to have taken the best bookmakers price, considerably shorter at 25/1. The horse did shorten up to 16/1 and won.

    Yes Gord, you do need to be psychologically strong to be able to take a near miss at a massive price. But you only get 1/4 or even 1/5th if placed, plus needing to take your win bet out of those "winnings", just as I need to take other win bets out of my winnings. And if I were to back all big priced horses each way I would not be able to back other value horses as main bets. When one horse runs poorly having backed it each way you lose both the win and the place bet. If my 40+/1 shot runs poorly I just lose the one bet and have other horses running for me. Had the 40+/1 shot Aquilonius faultered close home at Goodwood I’d still have won the race with another main bet Mutual Regard @ 8/1.

    Value is nothing more than one persons opinion.


    When

    Nortons coin

    won the Gold cup at 100/1 there were 2 lines of thought,those who obsess with stats and ratings and who just couldn’t have a Cow Farmer called Sirrell Griffiths training one horse as a contender and those who saw a progressive animal who had form to entitle him a crack at running at least a place in an open year,the horse didn’t know a 100/1 was available but that sort of price either attracts you or instantly dismisses you from considering it as a wager.At the end of the day it was purely one mans opinion against anothers as to how they percieved Value that day,just like it is everyday.


    The most hypocritical comments from Ginger the ‘Value seeker’ is when he suggests putting X-amount of points on horse A at 3/1,X-amount on Horse B at 5/1,X-amount on Horse C at 10/1,X amount on horse D at 16/1 and X-amount on Horse E at 25/1! Horse B wins at 5/1 and yet his profit of a 5/1 winner returns a payout of 2/5………Where’s the Value in that?? :roll:


    NOT that I would back all of those 5 horses to win the same amount anyway. IF I’d made 5 horses value and two of them were as low as 3/1 and 5/1 – I’d choose what I considered the BEST value (say two of the 5) to be main bets, with may be one half stake and a couple of savers.


    There is absolutely nothing wrong with backing just the ONE BEST value horse in a race, if you can take the long losing runs in your stride. But for me, backing all the value (in varied amounts) lessens my losing runs, keeping my confidence up and confidence keeps me looking at races the same way; ie profitably. Just as you Gord do not have the mental strength to bet win only, needing the safety net of each way (place savers).

    What I will say is Gingers ‘system’ of backing half the field yields a profit and consistently so,its about playing with numbers and juggling them to suit but it has absolutely nothing to do with Value,absolutely Jack Sh*t!

    :lol:
    A punter needs a 50% strike rate on his Even money shots to break even. 25% SR @ 3/1, 20% @ 4/1, 10% 9/1, 6% 16/1, 2% 50/1 etc. If I was not getting "value" I would not be showing a good profit. Unless of course, I’d backed one particular horse with 10 times my usual stake – to get back in to profit. :lol:

    value is everything
    #450463
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 24175

    edit
    I thought the score of the footy last night would be 4-0 but it was 6/1 so went 5-0 and 6-0 instead at the value and now my wallet is a little lighter than it should of been. :(

    Sadly Nathan, not everyone is good at identifying value. :lol:

    True, I identified the winner but went with the value which I was not good at identifying. :|

    Just because the 5-0 and 6-0 were at bigger odds Nathan – does not mean they were better "value". Say the 5-0 was 8/1 and 6-0 10/1…

    When a punter is able to see the 6/1 for 4-0 as 14% all he/she needs to ask is if the 4-0 score line has more or less than a 14% chance of coming up. If more it is in your opinion "value". Where as you may NOT believe 5-0 has an 11% (8/1) chance or 6-0 9% (10/1) chance of occurring. So the 6/1 4-0 might have been "value" and the 5-0 and 6-0 poor value. :wink:

    value is everything
    #450465
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 24175

    Some people maybe good at identifying winners which in the long run may produced a profit as they are not running up the perceived value losses.

    If a punter does not get "value" Nathan, he/she does not get enough "winners" to show a profit; it is as simple as that.

    But if a punter is able to find value without actually searching for value he/she can indeed show a profit. Just as if a punter searches for value and is no good at finding value he/she will not make an over all profit.:wink:

    Punters do not need to work out what percentage each horse has of winning. But it is infinitely easier to get value (and so profit) if he/she knows each price as a percentage. ie If he/she knows that if a horse is top priced 13/8, it needs a better than 38% chance to be a good bet. 7/4 = 36%, 15/8 35%, 2/1 33%, 85/40 32%, 9/4 31% etc etc.

    value is everything
    #450466
    steeplechasing
    steeplechasing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5294

    Value, like beauty, is in the eye of the beholder. I’d find it hard to make it pay on a daily basis because truly ‘beautiful’ value is pretty rare.

    But there is no doubt in my mind that value is the key, for me and for many, to making a profit.

    The best value this year was the 12/1 offered about Cue Card (in March) for the King George in December – value of Mona Lisa proportions. Apart from the horse’s talent, what made it value was that the first and second favs at 6/4 and 5/2 were highly unlikely to run. They’ve been removed from the betting now, but you can still have 8s about this horse who is one of those who comes along every decade or so that the pros continuously field against. He should be 5s max just now and 3s on the day imo.

    If you can’t have daily doses of value, when opportunities like CC arise, it is the chance to make a year’s worth of profit.

    Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference. https://lazybet.com/

    #450467
    Nathan Hughes
    Nathan Hughes
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 19342

    YES, I did believe 5-0 had an 11% (8/1) and 6-0 9% (10/1) chance of occurring.

    5-0 was 10/1 and 6-0 was 20/1.

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #450469
    The Ante-Post King
    The Ante-Post King
    Participant
    • Total Posts 8792

    Value, like beauty, is in the eye of the beholder. I’d find it hard to make it pay on a daily basis because truly ‘beautiful’ value is pretty rare.

    But there is no doubt in my mind that value is the key, for me and for many, to making a profit.

    The best value this year was the 12/1 offered about Cue Card (in March) for the King George in December – value of Mona Lisa proportions. Apart from the horse’s talent, what made it value was that the first and second favs at 6/4 and 5/2 were highly unlikely to run. They’ve been removed from the betting now, but you can still have 8s about this horse who is one of those who comes along every decade or so that the pros continuously field against. He should be 5s max just now and 3s on the day imo.

    If you can’t have daily doses of value, when opportunities like CC arise, it is the chance to make a year’s worth of profit.

    My sort of post that Joe,Good luck with your

    Cue Card

    ,he’s an honest sort who’s not stopped improving.3m will suit this time round as he’s definitely improved from last years poor King george effort as his ‘Betfair chase’ victory over the Hobbs horse confirms.You better hope

    First Lieutenant

    doesn’t come over though! :wink:

    #450470
    Drone
    Drone
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5119

    Although I agree Mike, whether a punter makes a profit to level stakes is important, I don’t think it is the best way to stake.

    Shouldn’t the stake depend on what chance the horse has of winning and how much value is in the bet?

    Shouldn’t something believed to have a 30% chance of winning have more money staked than something believed a 20% chance?

    Also:

    Shouldn’t Something believed a true 4/1 shot available @ 7/1 have more money staked than if it were only available @ 5/1?

    Though am not keen on the Kelly method as you can lose a lot in no time at all.

    Have we been here before Ginger? :lol:

    For the benefit of Betlarge and others who weren’t around at the time (times 10 :) ) here are some links to previous value/staking debates on this forum inspired by your musings

    http://www.theracingforum.co.uk/horse-r … 16&t=75109
    Gets going on page 4

    http://www.theracingforum.co.uk/horse-r … =2&t=85375

    http://www.theracingforum.co.uk/horse-r … =3&t=83940

    #450471
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 24175

    YES, I did believe 5-0 had an 11% (8/1) and 6-0 9% (10/1) chance of occurring.

    5-0 was 10/1 and 6-0 was 20/1.

    I deliberately used prices for 5-0 and 6-0 that I would not have considered value Nathan, to illustrate that 6/1 4-0 may have been better value.

    At 10/1, was it actually a better than 9% chance of 5-0?
    At 20/1, was it actually a better than 5% chance of 6-0?

    I’d say a 4-0 result had more than a 5% better chance of coming up than a 5-0 result yesterday (6/1 = 14% and 10/1 9%, 14 – 9 = 5 (or 14.3 – 9.1 = 5.2 if more exact), and I’d also say 4-0 had a better than 9% better chance than 6-0. So if you excuse the aftertiming Nathan, I’d have said 6/1 was the better value. And one result means nothing in the scheme of things when looking at achieving value for over all profit.

    value is everything
    #450481
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 24175

    Have we been here before Ginger? :lol:

    For the benefit of Betlarge and others who weren’t around at the time (times 10 :) ) here are some links to previous value/staking debates on this forum inspired by your musings

    http://www.theracingforum.co.uk/horse-r … 16&t=75109
    Gets going on page 4

    http://www.theracingforum.co.uk/horse-r … =2&t=85375

    http://www.theracingforum.co.uk/horse-r … =3&t=83940

    Thanks Drone,
    Very interesting.
    Well, at least I think so. :oops:

    I’ll use those links in future. :)

    May be you could provide me with links to every subject I’ve ever written about on the forum Drone? So that all I’d need to write on every post in every thread is two words "my thoughts"… :lol:

    value is everything
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