Ascot Chase 2018

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This topic contains 235 replies, has 45 voices, and was last updated by steeplechasing steeplechasing 5 months ago.

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  • #1341802
    stevecaution
    stevecaution
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    • Total Posts 8189

    Wasn’t Cue Card’s win in this race last year the Timeform figure of the season? As mentioned, I can see this race cutting up quite badly and Cue Card will be half the price. The 10s is tempting me.

    It may well have been but I think it would be very easy to question the merit of it.

    Cue Card was hardly in a tough race, going off 4/9 Fav in a six runner field. The subsequent form reads 24 runs and zero wins

    It’s pretty poor form and in retrospect it looks a poor piece of form. The Tizzards seem unsure what they want to do with Cue Card after having said they would look for an easier target for the horse. Given that they have have chopped and changed his target so many times, you couldn’t be sure that Cue Card would actually show up.

    I’m not that struck on the strength of Top Notch’s form given his odds. The races he’s been winning haven’t been working out that well.

    I have backed Waiting Patiently, as his last run was a promise of a lot better to come yet and he’s got an attractive/fast improving profile.

    Waiting Patiently is actually rated the same as Top Notch on 164 OR now. Coney Island is on 162 and Frodon is now up to 164 as well in a tight looking race.

    Waiting Patiently just looks the fastest improver and I have a slight question on the Frodon romp in the mud last time.


    Waiting Patiently for me at 7/2

    I would have him 5/2 Fav here.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1341860
    Venture to Cognac
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 13312

    Seven Declared

    Coney Island
    Cue Card
    Frodon
    Speredek
    Top Notch
    Traffic Fluide
    Waiting Patiently

    #1341870
    KevMcAlley
    KevMcAlley
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    • Total Posts 459

    Outstanding renewal. Ground will play a big part in this possibly, especially if Speredek goes off doing his best Special Tiara impression again.

    #1341889
    stevecaution
    stevecaution
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    • Total Posts 8189

    I suppose some will see 9/1 Cue Card in a 7 runner race a bit of value here. It is a big price for a horse with form in the race but he’s 12 YO now and hasn’t had much of a season so far.

    The Tizzards reckon he looks a million dollars and is as good as they have ever had him, so surely no excuses if he fails to fire here. This looks way tougher than last year’s renewal though.

    I feel Coney Island is a bit short at a general 11/4 now and I notice that punters don’t seem to be buying into the notion that Frodon is actually 2 lbs higher than Coney Island on official ratings now, with the Nicholls horse 8/1, despite his supposed higher rating.

    A good and competitive renewal despite only seven runners and it should help form a clearer pecking order if the old boy doesn’t kick them all to the kerb and expose them as young pretenders.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1341890
    jackh1092
    jackh1092
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    • Total Posts 693

    Lol, to be fair Steve, they have used the “is as good as they have ever had him” line for many of theirs this year and its been bull!

    I like Coney Island, but i do believe he might be up against two proper 2 1/2 milers here…be some race, probably not a betting one.

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1341904
    DBRDBR
    DBRDBR
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    • Total Posts 183

    I’ve backed my old friend Cue Card at 10/1 EW last week and expecting to see some big names being scratched. Not so sure now, a very strong edition. I think Waiting Patiently will win this quite easily. I was very impressed with his run in Kempton. Not so sure yet about Coney Island, his previous win was a strange race.

    #1341914

    Jasolong
    Participant
    • Total Posts 379

    Top notch slightly underrated I think. Although yes he’s favourite but I think his form is 4/5 pounds better than anything in this has produced (other than Cue Card – who is clearly not at his peak) and I also think TN could even be improving. I’ve been very impressed with him

    #1341945

    Kris
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    • Total Posts 169

    It’s very rare that an NH race grabs me, but I think this could be one of the races of the NH Season. I would agree Jaso, we may not have seen the best of Top Notch yet, and I fancy him or the Irish raider to fight it out. Waiting Patiently only adds to the race, and not forgetting Cue Card and Frodon.

    I’m going on Saturday, and it looks a race to savour.

    #1341970
    Himself
    Himself
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    • Total Posts 3827

    TOP NOTCH all day long for me . He is the speed horse in the race , a really fine jumper , gutsy , and has the added advantage of liking Ascot .

    I am an admirer of Waiting Patiently and he should put up a good show . Although he won quite impressively in his previous race , I just felt that he ran in snatches during the race , and wasn’t as fluent over the fences as I’d hoped for . I expect Cheltenham in March will be more to his liking .

    Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning

    #1341972
    Zamorston
    Zamorston
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    • Total Posts 1120

    Would absolutely love to see Waiting Patiently win it for the North! He’s improving all the time and a classy horse but I just feel Top Notch will be just a bit too good!

    He’s 3/3 at Ascot and the form of his last run over CD doesn’t look too shabby…trouncing Double Shuffle who went on to finish 2nd in the King George on his next start….arguably not the greatest King George of all time but still better form than most in this field bring to the table….Frodon was well beaten back in 3rd that day too and has since ran a good second and bolted up last time…

    Top Notch to have too much class and win with a bit to spare for me..

    #1342221
    steeplechasing
    steeplechasing
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    • Total Posts 5290

    Waiting Patiently should win this comfortably before picking up the Ryanair.

    He’s unbeaten for more than 2 years and has the classic profile of an ever-improving horse (120 to 164) on his way to the top.

    Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference. https://lazybet.com/

    #1342236
    CharlesOlney
    CharlesOlney
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    • Total Posts 1926

    I struggle to see how so many judges seem to be able to so easily side with one of either Top Notch or Waiting Patiently. I really can’t split them and am pretty happy just to sit with my e/w bet on Cue Card for 3 places and not worry about trying to guess who’s going to get the better of the argument between the top 2 in the market.

    If you put a gun to my head I’d probably come down on the side of Top Notch for 2 reasons: he’s 3 from 3 at Ascot and I’m sceptical about what Waiting Patiently actually beat at Kempton. But I’m no mug and understand that the northern fella is a serious talent and will have conditions in his favour.

    #1342243

    ham
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    • Total Posts 1606

    Firstly its an Excellent race, i like top notch and waiting patiently both should run very well in the ryanair, i think top notch will win this though

    If i could give the race to someone it would be cue card lol, is he capable of this? Hes been campaigned pretty well in comparison to a few of the tizzards, might be out of reach now, good to see brennan back on board though.

    Coney island, connections seem to be swaying to the ryanair over the gc now as hes not the “finished article” yet, could be a good move, but if he won this well imo id find it hard to agree to send him to the ryanair.

    Not a betting race for me, but if i was, at the prices id side with Frodon @8/1 Like i said I think top notch will likely win but 7/4 is short enough in this field.

    the front 3 look really good.

    #1342250
    stevecaution
    stevecaution
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    • Total Posts 8189

    My take on it is that I can’t see Cue Card winning. It’s all well and good to think that Cue Card may well snag third and pay 2/1 for the place but taking into account the losing part of the bet you are betting 1/2 your money.

    On the other hand I decided to back Waiting Patiently at 7/2. If he loses, he loses, but if he wins, it means I can have three losers and still be slightly ahead over the four bets. With a return at 1/2 your money, if the next bet loses, you are down over the two bets.

    I would rather just bet Cue Card to win if I fancied him. That way, if the old boy can still show them how it’s done, it buys you more bets going forward.

    That’s just the way I think anyway.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1342257
    botchy1
    botchy1
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    • Total Posts 2220

    A bit of useless trivia for you all re. WP

    I used to get the odd tip for Night in Milan now and again as the owner is local to me, and ironically i just moved into premises more or less across the road from them. I have heard he is a very “fishy guy mind you 😉

    Wishing them all the best, if they get within 5 lengths of Coney Island they have a serious horse :good:

    • This reply was modified 6 months ago by botchy1 botchy1.
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