2yo Summary Thread

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This topic contains 511 replies, has 1 voice, and was last updated by  stilvi 9 years, 4 months ago.

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  • #244535
    Gerald
    Gerald
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    • Total Posts 4465

    St Nicholas Abbey’s a mid-April foal so can’t be having him.

    On St Nicholas Abbey.Why does it matter it was a April foal.

    3 May High Rise
    22 April Oath
    18 May Commander in Chief
    24 May Erhaab

    #244536
    MDeering
    MDeering
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    • Total Posts 1735

    For those into superstitions Al Zir (like Dubai Millennium) had his name changed :)

    To what?

    It sounded like a work-in-progress name, and definitely unattractive if hitting the Classic scene next year.

    Pity they’ve already used Meydan City on the $11.7 million flop.

    PS. Just noticed that I spieled about Emerald Commander on the first page. Paid 7-1 the place over here. Amazing when you get only 1k in the win/place pool!

    #244569
    Zarkava
    Zarkava
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    • Total Posts 4734

    St Nicholas Abbey’s a mid-April foal so can’t be having him.

    On St Nicholas Abbey.Why does it matter it was a April foal.

    3 May High Rise
    22 April Oath
    18 May Commander in Chief
    24 May Erhaab

    Yup, Sea The Stars April 6th too.

    However, bar the 2 dreadful winners (the former 2), the superstar winner and the fact that my trends only go back to 1995, April/May/June foals don’t have a wonderful record in the Derby while actually very few AMJ foals go on to be top class. I don’t have a specific and factual argument behind this but I’d imagine that it’s possibly to do with trainers and owners asking too much of them while they’re still babies.

    1995, 15 runners, 5 April/May foals – all unplaced
    1996, 20 runners, 5 – 2 placed
    1997, 13 runners, 4 – 1 placed
    1998, 15 runners, 6 – 1 won, 1 placed
    1999, 16 runners, 7 – 1 won, other 6 unplaced
    2000, 15 runners, 2 – both unplaced
    2001, 12 runners, 3 – all unplaced
    2002, 12 runners, 4 – all unplaced
    2003, 20 runners, 9 – 1 placed, other 8 unplaced
    2004, 14 runners, 7 – all unplaced
    2005, 13 runners, 5 – all unplaced
    2006, 18 runners, 7 – 1 placed (Dylan Thomas), other 6 unplaced (Hala Bek would maybe have won)
    2007, 17 runners, 7 – all unplaced (3 of them finished right out the back)
    2008, 16 runners, 2 – both unplaced
    2009, 12 runners, 4 – 1 won, other 3 unplaced

    Now if you look through those 77 April/May/June foals, yup, 3 won; High Rise, Oath and Sea The Stars. The former 2 won appalling renewals and were both poor while the latter is very obviously high class and one of the best we’ve seen for a while.

    Only 6 others were placed; Silver Patriarch, Alamshar, Dylan Thomas, Shantou, City Honours and Dushyantor. The former 4 all went on to Group 1 glory with the first 3 all extremely good. City Honours didn’t get a chance to race after the Irish Derby (finished 2nd again) and Dushyantor came twice within a length of winning a Group 1.

    Even a few of the AMJ foals to finish 4th were very good – Percussionist, Hala Bek, Norse Dancer (obviously a few bad ones too).

    So that’s a 3-6-68 record for AMJ foals. Now the record of AMJ foals in the 2000 Guineas; 1-9-63 with Sea The Stars the only winner. Admittedly the vast majority of the placed AMJ foals were poor but Oratorio unplaced, Horatio Nelson unplaced, David Junior unplaced, Nayef unplaced.

    The same is kind of true of the fillies. I made Rainbow View a stone-wall lay because of her May 21st foaling date. Before this year they were 0-1-17 with Petrushka the only placed MJ foal and she couldn’t even beat Lahan. MJ foals have also struggled in the Oaks. 17 Jan foals have run in it since 1995, 47 February foals, 47 March foals, 44 April foals and 17 May foals. Incidentally the May foals are 1-2-14 and the Jan foals 0-2-15.

    (I may be wrong but the lack of January foals I’d put down to the breeding season not really getting into full swing for mares to be giving birth by then. Certainly the January foal figures for the Derby are low too. Just 5 runners between 1995 and 2005 (only Walk in the Park placed) and 1-2-7 since then (Sir Percy the winner, Masterofthehorse and Casual Conquest the placed))

    AMJ foals (only MJ for the fillies) are simply not strong enough and developed enough when the major Classics come round to be effective in strong renewals.

    #244579
    Gerald
    Gerald
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    • Total Posts 4465

    Next year’s Derby is looking awful at the moment, so I’ll keep the April & May foals in.

    #244584

    Aidan
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    • Total Posts 1243

    Next year’s Derby is looking awful at the moment, .

    :roll:

    #244585
    Zarkava
    Zarkava
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    • Total Posts 4734

    It’s 50/50 in regards to when the Derby winners have made their debuts. 7 before September 1st and 7 after August 31st. I’ll definitely go through the other less debatable trends at the end of the year just to double check but at the moment I’d say that the Derby winner hasn’t made his debut. Gosden’s got the main 2 English hopes on my shortlist but his Group 1 wins tend to come in the 2nd half of the season or in the French 1000 Guineas. I really really like the look of Stoute’s Warm Memories and the Irish have about 10 chances on my list with Vita Venturi, Star of the Show, Ferdinand Magellan and Captain James Cook the stand-outs. I’ll give it til the end of the month to hopefully remove another 2 or 3 names from the list and then I’ll start trying to get some proper AP odds on the unraced ones.

    #244635
    thehorsesmouth
    thehorsesmouth
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    • Total Posts 5533

    Stats are over-rated :roll:

    St Nicholas Abbey won very impressively the other day. Looked like a very smart type.

    #244645
    Zarkava
    Zarkava
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    • Total Posts 4734

    They’re only stats if you read them only as numbers.

    If you read them as numbers plus an explanation as to why the numbers are the way they are, I don’t think they’re overrated at all.

    Or perhaps you think it’s a total coincidence that loads of children were born during and after WW2?

    #244656

    Aidan
    Member
    • Total Posts 1243

    Guessing guessing guessing….

    All in the one thread you claim "sexy" breeding is not all its cracked up to be, only then a few posts later you rule horses out because they don’t have enough "class" in the pedigree (in your opinion I hasten to add).

    #244663
    Zarkava
    Zarkava
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    • Total Posts 4734

    Aidan, you’re well respected on here and clearly in a high profile job but that doesn’t give you the right to talk down to people. You were doing it a few years ago and you’re still doing it now.

    There’s a colossal difference between being a hype horse simply because he/she’s a full-brother/sister to another Group 1 winner (a la Benvenuto, Masterofthehorse, Black Bear Island, Black Sam Bellamy, etc), a horse like Captain James Cook (a half-brother to a Grade 2 and 3 winner in the States) and a horse like Morana (a half-brother to Blythe Knight and 7 other horses, none of whom recorded black type).

    The former I would class as having ‘sexy’ breeding, the middle I would class as having ‘classy’ breeding and the latter I would class as ‘not having enough class’ breeding.

    Wouldn’t you agree?

    So to be as blunt as you were, I don’t give a damn whether you think I’m guessing or not, I just wish you would ask for all the information before saying it.

    #244665
    Gerald
    Gerald
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    • Total Posts 4465

    I was planning to concentrate on the Guineas, as I thought that would be far easier to whittle down, but as Zarkava is so enthused by the Derby, I am going to have a go at that as well. I should be able to come up with something meaningful or interesting in about a week’s time. I’ve just entered all the entries into a spreadsheet. About 1/3 of them are unnamed, including ones in training.

    I’m a little disappointed that I can’t write something for a laugh without having to include an emoticon, so that people will realise I’m not being serious. This year’s 3yos were being written off even before the season started, so I thought I’d jump in early.

    #244666
    Zarkava
    Zarkava
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    • Total Posts 4734

    I was planning to concentrate on the Guineas, as I thought that would be far easier to whittle down, but as Zarkava is so enthused by the Derby, I am going to have a go at that as well.

    :lol:

    It’s only because the Derby 2yo trends allow any followers to remove horses so easily and quickly. Debut on a non-Group 1 track? Nope, you’re gone. Outside the top 5 on any start? You’re outta here. 2 attempts to break you maiden? Bye bye.

    I use foaling dates, others don’t. I also look at the record of each stallion’s progeny over the past 14 years while I’m also happy to remove any horse who doesn’t have a RP Trophy or Dewhurst entry. Add those all together while allowing a bit of room for maneuver and you can get it down to a fairly short list quite easily.

    #244668
    Gerald
    Gerald
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    • Total Posts 4465

    The good thing about those trends is that I’m fairly sure they all existed 20 years ago as well, so they ain’t transient.

    I’m going to start from basics. and see if I can pick up a new angle.

    On the pissing against the wind front, I had a look for all the entrants with Miswaki as a Damsire, and I was a little surprised that there are only two.

    Plato

    (Cecil), by Bago, is unraced, but I am going to try to keep an eye out for him. Nureyev and Mr Prospector are on both sides of the pedigree, so the Derby might be out. Miesque is the Great Aunt.

    edit: Okay, I’m going to fall for the bleeding obvious.

    Azmeel

    looks to me as if he could be both a Guineas and a Derby horse. Really hope he runs in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster.

    29Jul09 Sandown (7Gd ,RPR85)
    He is a nice sort of horse but has only worked on the bridle. It is early days but he is probably more a Royal Lodge than a Champagne horse. – John Gosden, trainer

    #244793

    darren83
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    • Total Posts 4602

    A question for you guys did Sea The Stars and Fame And Glory have entries in the Dewhurst and RP Trophy last year.

    And what are you guys thoughts on Showcasing.Could he get a mile and be a contender for next years 2000 Guineas.

    #244804
    Zarkava
    Zarkava
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    • Total Posts 4734

    The Gimcrack-Middle Park route is just about the worst possible route you could take as a 2yo for the Guineas. All 15 runners in the Middle Park since 1995 have been beaten (only Dutch Art placed) and you’d need to go back to back to 2006 to find a Gimcrack runner who even ran in the Guineas (14 runners in total, 1 winner (Rock of Gibraltar) and 1 placed (Mujahid)).

    If you look at the Coventry as well actually, 22 runners from that have run in the Guineas since 1995 and just 2 were placed – actually both were victorious, Henrythenavigator and Rock of Gibraltar.

    It’s stuff like this on the trends that makes you realise how simply unbelievable Aidan O’Brien is and I maintain that anybody who doesn’t at least look at the trends will never appreciate him fully.

    I’ve not been able to find the Racing Post Trophy entries in full for last year but Fame And Glory was almost certainly one of O’Brien’s 44 entries. I don’t know if Sea The Stars held an entry as well but both were entered in the Dewhurst from the initial entry stage.

    Tiny edit, albeit 1 month later – Hannon also had a Coventry runner placed in the Guineas which I somehow missed, so 2-1-20 for Coventry runners.

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