2yo summary thread 2018

[darren83]

Any views on Waldstern by Gosden Steve i know Jack mention him to

I like NORWAY for derby ran nice debut race you expect him come out on 2nd start win maiden race go for group races then has right breeding to

Any views on KHAADEM a horse put up for Commenwealth cup who won well at weekend

[stevecaution]

Montviette won The Prix Marettes as I mentioned earlier in the thread. The Marettes has proven to be a good race in the past and it got it’s first chance to offer a guide when the 7th home Dezba ran in a conditions race at Deauville today.

Dezba didn’t disappoint as she came home on her own to win by 5 lengths.

Debza had come in rated 71 and faced a favourite rated 84, albeit getting 7 lbs. Debza is another Kingman filly.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[stevecaution]

Hi Darren, If I was looking for a race for Waldstern for next season it would probably be the Leger. The dam’s progeny thus far have looked to need a trip and the dam herself seemed best when the mud was flying.

I’d be a bit worried if he’d be fast enough.

I’ve done Too Darn Hot, and despite the equal RPR of 97 so far, I think he’s looked more the part myself.

I don’t think I could have have another bet on the Derby at this stage. I’ve done Quorto at 25/1 and Too Darn Hot at 50/1 and I am hoping both will go into the winter shorter and with the dream still alive.

Norway recorded a rating of 75 for his debut and that’s 22 lbs lower than Waldstern. He will obviously come on a lot but he needs to do so just to catch up with a horse also entitled to improve. For now he has a shed load to prove. He was in front of Anthony Van Dyck when he was 5th behind Klute and the Derby favourite was 7th but it’s not guaranteed he will match the improvement.

I am hoping Klute can spring a surprise this Sunday. The Racing Post betting guide has Anthony Van Dyck 4/7 and Klute 8/1, so the perceived wisdom is that only O’Brien’s horses can improve. Guaranteed, who was second in Klute’s race, won next time from the disappointing Mount Tabora but the rating from the Racing Post has him only improving 4 lbs from his 1st start. I am banking on the Harrington horse doing much better from his first run.

Khaadem was impressive enough last time up but the elephant in the room is Charlie Hills. I have never found it profitable backing him and both Battaah and Equilateral let me down for good bets at Royal Ascot. I had Battaash at 4/1 there and Equilateral was just a huge disappointment. Khaadem was 11 lengths behind Calyx on debut and that’s a lot to make up. The horse who split the two that day, Mark Johnston’s Octave has been very disappointing since (Mind you she’s hardly the first Johnston horse to look smart and then stink like an old sock) I’m not sure it was a good race Khaadem won. John Gosden’s Albert Finney was given a chance at 7/1 there after being stone last and despite beating ONE horse home this time he conspired to record nearly a stone worse rating on 40.

Waldstern a clear best of the three you mentioned Darrem. Not convinced by the other two, I reckon they need big improvement and while Aidan’s might be capable I can’t see it with Charlie Hills myself.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[ham]

That was impressive from ten sovereigns, especially over 6f on debut

[Kris]

Very very impressive Ham, that was almost effortless.

[Kris]

Yes Steve, there is work to be done with Christmas, and I think a similar rate of progression with Us Navy Flag is the best I can hope for.

[ham]

Yeah about the best FTO performance for me this season so far,

Fresno is an interesting newcomer tomorrow, out of moonlight cloud, by galileo, doesnt get much better than that!

[darren83]

Any views on 2 maiden winners that Stoute had at Newmarket on friday

Any views on Debutante stakes i hope ZAGITOVA wins as she my bet for 1000 guineas put her up in thread

[ham]

Sangarius will turn out to be decent, battled on well

Lady kaya for me tomorrow in the debutante, shes way overpriced fornthe guineas and ill have a little bit on for the guineas just incase she wins tomorrow

[Kris]

I didn’t realise Christmas was out tomorrow. Well he only has to beat the Derby favourite.

[stevecaution]

Ten Sovereigns was awesome today, he seemed a lot more forward than the Galileo’s Aidan runs and that would be the only question as a son of No Nay Never. Quite a few of the No Nay Never progeny have not built on their first run and gone on to be beaten once or more in several cases eg:-

Land Force, The Irish Rover, Servalan, Cosmic Law, North Wind, who have been his better progeny thus far.

Ten Sovereigns seems the potential leader of the pack so far but it might be unwise to feel Ten Sovereigns will automatically go on like a Galileo youngster might.

Christmas is out tomorrow as well but it seems that Anthony Van Dyck is the second coming here. I have done Klute at 9/1, as I think that’s a crazy price. He beat the favourite last time and the race is working out well. Anthony Van Dyck has improved but the Harrington colt has not had the chance to prove himself again since and could be anything. He was more than four lengths ahead of the Derby favourite and while Anthony Van Dyck has improved to a much higher rating now, I would be surprised if the adjusted RPR’s of:-

Anthony Van Dyck 117
Christmas 111
Guaranteed 99
Klute 96
Mohawk 92
Could Be King 83

probe to be entirely reliable, given how lightly raced these are.

If Klute were Aidan’s horse and Ryan Moore selected him over Anthony Van Dyck, then what would the odds be?

Anthony Van Dyck may well win it of course but at 2/5 I wouldn’t play with the knowledge that he’s been beaten by another horse in the field who has yet to run again. If you play at 2/5 and lose it’s a hole dug in your bank, if you win, it doesn’t put the pot up far for leaner times. Play at 9/1 and it’s not denting the bank if you lose, but a win lets you have several more bets before the pot gets shaky.

Klute 9/1

In the fillies race I don’t feel Zagitova is much value at 7/4. She did it nicely last time but she needs to come forward again. At 16/1 I felt Peach Tree was worth a speculation. She badly needed her first start and Aidan said she “Came on lovely” to win next time. I thought she was going to splat them that day but she was still learning on the hoof there and didn’t win as far as I first thought she would. I just feel she may improve again and perhaps upset the jockey booking perception.

Peach Tree 16/1

That should mean that the two Favs hose up now.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[stevecaution]

Fresno is an interesting newcomer tomorrow, out of moonlight cloud, by galileo, doesnt get much better than that!

I noticed that Ryan is on Circus Maximus though. Not quite the dream breeding of Fresno but by Galileo out of decent filly Duntle isn’t bad. Duntle’s first foal, he is entered in the Dewhurst and Derby, whereas Fresno holds Beresford and Derby entries.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[stevecaution]

Circus Maximus is a sea of blue on Oddschecker at about 2/1. Fresno is on the drift and out to 7/1.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[stevecaution]

Klute was never going a yard today and looked beaten after a furlong with every horse who ran behind him last time reversing the form. Commentator mentioned before the race that he was puzzled by the absence since his debut win. Klute went backwards whatever the reason. Not the first Harrington colt to disappoint next time.

In the end Anthony Van Dyck won it but he was pushed along from some way out. It was stamina that won the day as he reeled in Christmas by half a length.

Anthony Van Dyck was given the same rating as last time on 111 with Christmas up 9 lbs to 110 and the Elephant in the room is Joey O’Brien’s Mohawk on 104, up 26 Lbs from last time. We’ll see.

10/1 for the Guineas is of no interest to me. I don’t think The Dyck has enough toe. The review said that the fav for both classics looked to be crying out for a mile but the National Stakes is his next target.

Christmas is certainly progressing nicely for Kris and nothing wrong with going down narrowly today. I thought the Fav was in trouble.

Zagitova was weak in the betting and a bit disappointing. It looked like Peach Tree was making the pace for her and I was disappointed with Peach Tree, as I felt she might improve and place here. Not impressed with that race really.

In the opener Fresno was never sighted and Circus Maximus was weak as a kitten, out to 5/1. I noticed right away that Circus Maximus was being bustled along very early doors and never really going the pace. He stayed on to be fifth and needs further. Time and distance will see him improve and I would not be surprised to see him win something decent one day. Fresno was bitterly disappointing in 18th place.

I was going to have a fiver on I Am Superman purely because it is an REM song with an excerpt in Japanese that came from a string-pull Godzilla doll at the beginning. In the end I Am Superman ran really well in second. Later I was going to put a few quid on Fannie By Gaslight (For the crack) and then didn’t bother. She sluiced home at 10/1 by eight lengths, on her first attempt on soft/heavy, with either the ground, or that combined to the extra 2F, seeing her record a huge PB today. The jockey certainly didn’t have to wait for a split on Fannie By Gaslight

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[Venture to Cognac]

It’s not that often I have any 2yo’s to follow, but thought I’d stick one up, and it’s Vange, who was one of the highlights of Royal Ascot for me.

I thought he ran a very very nice race in The Coventry, and though well held by the winner, I was delighted with him. He had caught my attention on debut at Beverley, and I was desperate to bet him at Chester next time out, but he was just too short for me.

Hardly one for the top prizes, but I’ll hopefully get some joy from him…..in The 2021 Ayr Gold Cup or something like that.

Also interested in stablemate Ninetythreetwenty, who also shaped well in The Coventry.

[stevecaution]

Vange is interesting Bobby. I thought he might have run in the Gimcrack after his good effort at Royal Ascot.

He is entered in the Derby but that would look unlikely as he is yet to exceed 6F on the racecourse.

He is the Dam’s best by quite some way thus far, as the second best ended upover the sticks (Ronnie Baird)

I see no other entries for him apart from the Derby one and I am surprised he’s not been out again since June.

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[Venture to Cognac]

Yeah Steve, thought I’d see him at York as well, but assuming all is well, I’ll definitely bet him again………though maybe not for Epsom lol

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