2018 Lanzarote Hurdle!

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This topic contains 33 replies, has 23 voices, and was last updated by MarkTT MarkTT 5 months ago.

Viewing 15 posts - 16 through 30 (of 34 total)
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  • #1337177

    Flyers Nap
    Participant
    • Total Posts 253

    Equine Soduku
    A proper handicap with the weight difference top to bottom.
    Weight wise only Saphir (11-07 with claim) has won from top handicap last 8 runnings,age wise 6 yr olds have much the best recent record.
    Looking for something thats not shown its hand,probably most of the field!
    Concentrated on the bottom 9 horses,from 11-02 lb down.
    The doctors horse could be thrown in on his run behind FLC in france,as mentioned there has been money for the murphy horse,both are interesting and open to plenty improvement.
    Gone with two down the bottom,both highlighted on here already,both younger than ideal.

    Dino Velvet….liked the newbury run,also hung a little up the straight,suggesting this right handed course might be up his street,like the stable,hoping his mark is very workable.

    Dentley De Mee…..stable record mentioned,the 11 lb rise looks harsh for getting beaten lto,however the run behind marias benefit trying to give that half a stone,suggests not.

    Looks difficult,just as it should be,best of luck to those playing.

    #1337200
    CharlesOlney
    CharlesOlney
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1803

    I know he’s up in trip but the way DDB got outpaced last time out worries me and I can see the same happening bearing in mind the pace they usually go in this race.

    Like Steve I think River Frost has the perfect profile for this race and his recent break has been by design. He has a smashing record round Kempton and on the basis of his Coral Cup and Chepstow runs, he can still be very competitive off this mark albeit that’s reflected in his price.

    What I perceive as the main bet in the race though has to be William Henry unfortunately. He looks more than capable of winning over the smaller obstacles off a mark of 145 and looking down his form figures, it shows he’s due a win. The jockey booking is a huge positive and I can see him putting up a bold show.

    I was going to leave it at that but when I saw Bet365 were offering 50/1 about Man From Mars I thought it had to be worth a sly e/w gamble. Nick Williams has had 6 winners from 16 runners in recent weeks and this horse signed off his last campaign with a course win. The jockey booking can’t be a negative and he gets in off next to no weight. Of course he has to step up massively on form but he’s unexposed.

    River Frost 11/2 (win)
    William Henry 6/1 (win – main bet)
    Man From Mars 50/1 (e/w)

    #1337210
    GoldenMiller34
    GoldenMiller34
    Participant
    • Total Posts 860

    My theory here is that Diese Des Bieffes has joint top adjusted RPR and should improve for the extra distance, top trainer who does well at Kempton. Unattractive price, could plump for any of a handful at double figures but have no preference amongst them or any strong conviction about one of them in particular.

    #1337211
    BigG
    BigG
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4134

    Hi Charles, I’ve put my 2 up on here, TOPOFTHEGAME and BENTLEY DE MEE, but I also thought
    that the odds on MAN OF MARS were tempting. I put him up as my reserve in
    Pat’s Saturday H’cap competition but hadn’t got round to betting him yet, but I see he’s
    drifted out to 66/1 so I’ve had some of that. As you mentioned Steve, he has to step up
    quite a bit on what he’s done, but at those odds he’s too tempting not to have a little
    on him. Here’s hoping he sneaks into the places :good:

    #1337259

    Racingorchid
    Participant
    • Total Posts 117

    another vote for the williams pair of DDM 25/1 amd MFM 66/1

    #1337263
    BigG
    BigG
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4134

    Hi Charles, I’ve put my 2 up on here, TOPOFTHEGAME and BENTLEY DE MEE, but I also thought
    that the odds on MAN OF MARS were tempting. I put him up as my reserve in
    Pat’s Saturday H’cap competition but hadn’t got round to betting him yet, but I see he’s
    drifted out to 66/1 so I’ve had some of that. As you mentioned Steve, he has to step up
    quite a bit on what he’s done, but at those odds he’s too tempting not to have a little
    on him. Here’s hoping he sneaks into the places :good:

    For some reason the edit button seems to have disappeared. I did of course mean Charles, when I
    typed Steve, and I do know he’s called Man FROM Mars. Pity that the edit button
    has disappeared, it at least hides your incompetence from those that hadn’t read your post yet :wacko:

    • This reply was modified 5 months, 1 week ago by BigG BigG.
    #1337271
    steeplechasing
    steeplechasing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5276

    From my blog (posted last night):

    William Henry is a very talented horses who won an NH Flat race here by 17 lengths on just his second outing. Surprisingly, he hasn’t run again right-handed since that day. He was well fancied on his chasing debut last time but didn’t seem to care at all for fences and Russell pulled him up when his saddle slipped.

    Interesting that Russell is replaced here by James Bowen, who claims 5lbs. It would be nice to know if this was at the suggestion of the trainer in the hope that the very talented Bowen and his claim can make the difference. Russell is retained in the UK by William Henry’s owner, Dai Walters, although I believe it is something of a gentleman’s agreement and perhaps Russell begged off to ride the good Cheltenham prospect Mengli Khan at Punchestown.

    I’m also going to have £1 on Top Ville Ben in this. He won by a street at Haydock last time in heavy ground. Haydock’s heavy going is getting a reputation for ‘freak’ winners but I’m not so sure it’s a deserved one. Bristol De Mai is the main witness for the prosecution in these cases but I think his King George run was too bad to be true and that his Betfair win at Haydock should not be condemned too quickly.

    Another impressive winner from the front that day who probably got slotted in to the freak category by some was Sam Spinner; look what he did next. So at around 41/1 on Betfair (28/1) with the bookies, I’m happy to have a small saver on him. It might well have been a freak day but equally, he changed yards in September and has been showing steady improvement since. Also, Adam Nicol took over in the saddle two runs ago and the horse’s best Racing Post ratings have been achieved in those two races. Sometimes a horse and jockey just click.

    Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference. https://lazybet.com/

    #1337287
    DBRDBR
    DBRDBR
    Participant
    • Total Posts 182

    I like Topofthegame here at 8/1.

    #1337294
    Degaussed
    Degaussed
    Participant
    • Total Posts 484

    Topofthegame is the 2020 Gold Cup winner, assuming he takes to fences next year.

    #1337296

    greenasgrass
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1146

    WD Charles and Joe- Bowen the Younger is flying at the moment!

    #1337299
    thejudge1
    thejudge1
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2256

    hate these garbage races, always do badly on them (and horse racing in general, tbf.)

    please shoot me for having the lack of discipline to get involved in the first place. 🙁

    #1337309
    BigG
    BigG
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4134

    Great tipping Joe and Charles, he looks a decent sort. Topofthegame ran not
    a bad race, he seemed to come under a bit of pressure before most to keep with
    them, but then ran on well for 4th. I think he looks like a 3m+ horse to me.

    #1337314

    ham
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1507

    Well done charles and joe, james bowens claim proving to be a gift recently

    #1337321
    GoldenMiller34
    GoldenMiller34
    Participant
    • Total Posts 860

    I know he’s up in trip but the way DDB got outpaced last time out worries me and I can see the same happening bearing in mind the pace they usually go in this race.

    Like Steve I think River Frost has the perfect profile for this race and his recent break has been by design. He has a smashing record round Kempton and on the basis of his Coral Cup and Chepstow runs, he can still be very competitive off this mark albeit that’s reflected in his price.

    What I perceive as the main bet in the race though has to be William Henry unfortunately. He looks more than capable of winning over the smaller obstacles off a mark of 145 and looking down his form figures, it shows he’s due a win. The jockey booking is a huge positive and I can see him putting up a bold show.

    I was going to leave it at that but when I saw Bet365 were offering 50/1 about Man From Mars I thought it had to be worth a sly e/w gamble. Nick Williams has had 6 winners from 16 runners in recent weeks and this horse signed off his last campaign with a course win. The jockey booking can’t be a negative and he gets in off next to no weight. Of course he has to step up massively on form but he’s unexposed.

    River Frost 11/2 (win)
    William Henry 6/1 (win – main bet)
    Man From Mars 50/1 (e/w)

    Good call re DDB, Charles. He’ll go up to 3m but I wonder if the same thing will happen?

    #1337333
    stevecaution
    stevecaution
    Participant
    • Total Posts 8043

    Well done with William Henry.

    River Frost never showed at all. Barry Geraghty did little to help explain by saying that the horse was “Never travelling” and the vet reported no abnormalities.

    I wish I could have explained away a crap day at work as easily as that.

    I mean, it’s pretty desperate when your selection is getting reminders after the 1st flight! :wacko: :unsure:

    The Total Recall followers make their way to Aintree.

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