February 13, 2018 at 21:31 #1342095
Just concentrate on the first 60 on the list. They’ll get in and the winner is in there somewhere.February 13, 2018 at 22:27 #1342105
- Total Posts 5264
Fresh from my blog:
Weights for the Randox Health Grand National were unveiled today and the one that caught my eye was As De Mee who, at 66/1, looks at least twice the price he should be.
As De Mee is an 8-year-old, as was One For Arthur who won last year. Rule The World in 2016 was 9, and the 2015 winner Many Clouds was 8. Prior to that a run of comparative oldies won five in a row: three were 11 and two 10, but the shape of the race changes over the years as the handicap is tinkered with and the quality of entries, in general, improves.
There’s nothing of standout quality this year. Bristol De Mai, a horse I’m fond of, will miss the race, according to his trainer, to run in a three-miler over Aintree’s conventional fences. Top weight is the improving Definitly Red who is also bound for the Gold Cup, a race that will take plenty out of him.
Bristol De Mai’s trainer, politely called enigmatic by some, has the antepost favourite for the Grand National in Blaklion who had a smooth victory in the Becher Chase at Aintree in December. Blaklion was 4th in the 2017 National and there’s no denying his chance here. But he’s very short at 12/1.
As De Mee is something of a character and that has undoubtedly helped boost his price for this. Sometimes he responds to pressure and sometimes he doesn’t. He tends to carry his head high in a finish but shows no signs of temperament during the race and he appears to enjoy jumping. Crucially, he particularly appears to enjoy the unique Grand National fences notwithstanding his recent unseat in Blaklion’s Becher.
As De Mee had run over the Grand National fences three times previous to that, finishing 7th of 29 and 5th of 29 in The Topham, and winning the Grand Sefton. His stamina needs to be taken on trust although he won nicely on his first attempt at 3m 2f at Kelso to beat Wakanda seven lengths. Wakanda went on to win the Skybet Chase at Doncaster. Of the Kelso run, Sean Bowen, his jockey reported that he’d got into a good rhythm and that once he hit the front it was plain sailing.
Still, he’ll have to cover a mile and half a furlong more at Aintree in April and his pedigree doesn’t offer many clues. His sire Kapgarde has had just 15 runners in the UK and Ireland beyond 3m2f and none has won, though the sample is very small. His dam Koeur De Mee has had just one other runner and that one – Capsy De Mee – has not run beyond 3 miles.
The dam’s sire Video Rock has had one winner from 6 runners at 3m4f and is 0 from 27 beyond that distance (UK & Ireland figures only).
So, I’m not concerned about As De Mee’s jumping, but there has to be a stamina concern and until he’s tried this, we simply won’t know. But the risk is well compensated for in the price, I think.
He has 10st 8lbs allotted although the weights will go up if the top horses drop out. I think there’s a very strong chance that Bryony Frost will ride. She rode him to be 2nd on his seasonal debut in October and the Stewart family, who own As De Mee in partnership with Dame Judi Dench, are big fans of Bryony’s skills. Bryony is a fantastic character and half the media are already in love with her. If she does ride this, you are looking at him going off perhaps 50 points shorter than he currently is. Dame Judi’s involvement will add to the public interest.
As De Mee is a good looking, rangy individual (the long header image at the top of this page was taken at Kelso in October and As De Mee is the horse showing in 2nd. The featured image on this blog post is of him jumping that fence you see in the top photo). He’s improving, having achieved his highest official rating this season, he’s hopefully mature enough, loves the Aintree fences and if he stays this trip and has luck in running, he’ll take some beating off 10.8, although if he leads at the Elbow and puts his head up, you’ll have the most exciting finish – one way or another – of your life.
As ever, the usual antepost caveat applies; if he doesn’t turn up at the start your money is lost. For those who want to forego a 16-point advantage to ensure a non-runner-no-bet clause then Skybet (online only) offer 50/1. He will be half that on the day and even shorter if Bryony rides and I recommend you bet him at the price of your choice. 66/1 is available with a number of online bookies. Ladbrokes are the only High St bookmaker offering 66/1.
Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference. https://lazybet.com/February 13, 2018 at 23:23 #1342112
- Total Posts 6773
Relieved to read that Bristol De Mai’s owners have decided that he will not be running in the Grand National..they are aiming him at the Betway Bowl instead.Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...February 13, 2018 at 23:31 #1342114
Venture to CognacModerator
- Total Posts 13067
Good post Joe, and best of luck with As De Mee. I wouldn’t have too many concerns about his stamina, and that’s a nice price.February 13, 2018 at 23:46 #1342115
- Total Posts 390
On my old fav cause of causes and added Tiger Roll this evening. That will do me until closer to the time. Both have nice weightsFebruary 14, 2018 at 01:28 #1342124
- Total Posts 649
Only just started looking at this but tempted by the 40-1 on Pleasant Company. He was going well when almost coming down at second Valentines last year and jumped cautiously after that but seemed to stay on ok. Less weight this year, albeit due to his lousey form since. Also like Seeyouatmidnight but the fact that he hasn’t run since March is a major concernFebruary 14, 2018 at 14:28 #1342179
- Total Posts 23153
Pleasant Company is on a mark just 1 lb less than he was last year, Tongevalue is everythingFebruary 14, 2018 at 22:02 #1342266
The Ante-Post KingParticipant
- Total Posts 8824
I had already got my 40/1 for last years Grand National winner at this point,thanks to Joe higlighting ‘One for Arthur’.This year I have waited for the weights to be published before I jump in and the horse that jumps off the page is Bellshill..42’s on machine has been taken.First and foremost he’s a multiple Grade 1 winner getting in on 10-7..He ran 3rd to the mighty ‘Might Bite’ at Cheltenham,his Trainer had him entered in the 4miler too which suggests he could stay.’Bellshill’ is generally a spring heeled jumper and looks like a horse who could athletically jump Aintree,the course itself suits.He is 7lb better off with Mouse Morris’s plot horse ‘Alpha des Obeaux’ for beating him in RSA,that form reads well.He’s only an 8yo,lightly raced too and he’s won 50% of his 16 runs.I see he could reappear this weekend and his only entry at Cheltenham is the Ryanair.I believe Graham Wylie will let him take his chance at Liverpool as he did have the potential to be carrying 11-7 in this..off his mark of 150 and the fact he’s beaten the very useful ‘Coney Island’ in a Grade 1 3m race suggests off this fly weight his chances of staying look promising in what we know is a bloody nightmare of a race.TAPK has a surprisingly good record in the Grand National and I dont even back all the runners like my old pal Ginge does..February 14, 2018 at 23:39 #1342280
I’d be a bit shocked if Bellshill won a national with such little chase experience. My gut feeling is he won’t run and he’ll be given more time.February 15, 2018 at 00:38 #1342292
Venture to CognacModerator
- Total Posts 13067
Good luck Gord, nice price if he goes. I reckon Wylie would love him to head here.February 15, 2018 at 00:59 #1342295
- Total Posts 1128
I like him too…like you say a class horse with a low weight. You can get 33s NRNB. Tempting….February 15, 2018 at 01:11 #1342296
- Total Posts 1128
Also tempted by the 50s NRNB on American. Big horse should carry a bit of weight no bother, jumped decently enough at Cheltenham on his “real” seasonal reappearance in the Cotswold, handicapper has been kind for that run, big horse should come on plenty for the run. No harm to wait a bit as big fragile horse hard to keep sound. Also would like to see Fry stable firing on all cylinders. Hopefully price should hold up for a bit.February 15, 2018 at 06:20 #1342302
Chase experience is important in a race like this. For as long as I can remember the winner has had at least 9 chase starts going into the race.February 15, 2018 at 19:16 #1342393
- Total Posts 3117
I have followed Joe in with AS DE MEE but have backed it at 50/1 NRNB with Skybet because as Joe so rightly says if Bryony is on it it won’t start anything like that price.
The other one I have backed ante post is WARRIORS TALE from the same yard at 40/1 NRNB and it seems that Trevor Hemmings has bought it which usually points to the National.
Sorry if I am second guessing but I have to do something to try and back a National winner having only backed four of them in my lifetime!!February 15, 2018 at 20:18 #1342405
- Total Posts 208
I have to admit to being ignorant of the sale of Abolitionist when I bet him, but he’s in good hands now with Newlands, and pleasing to see that this is why he was bought.
It’s the biggest race of the year, so there is no shame in having 3 antepost, and I am strongly considering Wild West Wind on the way he went along at Chepstow
You must be logged in to reply to this topic.