2018 Classic Chase

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This topic contains 42 replies, has 23 voices, and was last updated by stevecaution stevecaution 9 hours, 52 minutes ago.

Viewing 13 posts - 31 through 43 (of 43 total)
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  • #1337371

    Mike007
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    That’ll be Nina Carberry.

    #1337374
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
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    • Total Posts 22632

    No, Nina has always been whip happy and ridden primarily against amateurs. Bryony is different class, especially given her inexperience.

    value is everything
    #1337380
    CharlesOlney
    CharlesOlney
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    • Total Posts 1462

    Well, that’s what I thought might happen… In the Welsh National. 😥

    I backed him every time he ran last season but gave up in him for this season and just when I was about to start patting myself on the back… bang! in he goes.

    Complete change for the horse though. New rider, new tactics and new headgear. When you look back it all seemed very clear that this was a bit of an old plot.

    #1337412

    Mike007
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    • Total Posts 130

    No, Nina has always been whip happy and ridden primarily against amateurs. Bryony is different class, especially given her inexperience.

    We will agree to disagree on that one.
    :yes:

    #1337416

    yeats
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    • Total Posts 2815

    BF, Best National Hunt woman jockey there’s ever been.

    Did you see James Willoughby on Luck on Sunday Gingertipster? He had Bryony’s WAX figure as zero lol.

    #1337515

    jumpsfan
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    • Total Posts 97

    I’ve said since his hurdling days he’d win a regional National but how many chances do you give a horse? The closest I got with him was when he was second in the Midlands. I got that sinking feeling on Saturday you know the one…oh no not Milansbar!

    #1337542
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
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    • Total Posts 22632

    I was kicking myself for not having betting-in-running up on my computer at the time. Once Milansbar went three fences it was clear he was enjoying racing a lot more than had for ages. Appendages and fromt running obviously suit. Although I think Bryony is a master (or should that be mistress?) at getting them jumping.

    value is everything
    #1337544
    steeplechasing
    steeplechasing
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    • Total Posts 4972

    From a Willoughby article on WAX:

    A significant measure of caution must be applied to WAX figures from a single season alone. Firstly, the sample-size is relatively small, for it takes at least 500 rides before this metric begins to stabilize. Second, and more significantly, if a high proportion of a jockey’s rides are supplied by only one or two trainers, his or her WAX may just be a reflection of whether the stable is underrated or overrated.

    She’s had 308 rides over 3 seasons. Her father and P Nicholls provided 250 of those.

    Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference. https://lazybet.com/

    #1337550

    yeats
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    • Total Posts 2815

    Does that mean Paul Nicholls is underrated or overrated steeplechasing?

    Willo put up a table on Sunday were most of the jockeys had under 500 rides, several had less than 200. Joe Colliver in the top 10?

    Ryan Moore doesn’t even appear in his flat one. He states that science tells you better than your eyes who a good jockey is but these tables are seriously flawed, least of all it only takes account of winners, a ride beaten a nose is treated the same as a ride tailed off and it is all concerning the past, no reason to believe it’s predictive of the future.

    I’m tempted to say it’s rubbish 😉

    #1337571
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
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    • Total Posts 22632

    Just watched that Willo piece. Wouldn’t say it’s “rubbish”. Seems to me it says far more about which jockey is under-rated rather than who’s the best/better jockey. So is a very worthwhile venture. However, fact those thought of as the “best jockey/s” are overbet and therefore don’t get in the WAX doesn’t mean they’re not in fact the “best jockeys”. Similarly, Bryony Frost is probably currently a little overbet because she’s the best woman jockey. Saturday’s performance was imo special, but we do get racing presenters going OTT whenever a Lady jockey wins. Best Lady jockey won’t take long at all to be noticed and once noticed that’s it as far as this table is concerned. Shouldn’t expect Ryan Moore, Richard Johnson or Bryont Frost to be anywhere near top of what is basically a “Who’s under-rated?” table.

    value is everything
    #1337572

    yeats
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    • Total Posts 2815

    Shouldn’t expect Ryan Moore, Richard Johnson or Bryont Frost to be anywhere near top of what is basically a “Who’s under-rated?” table.

    What about Silvester?

    #1337577
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
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    • Total Posts 22632

    Shouldn’t expect Ryan Moore, Richard Johnson or Bryont Frost to be anywhere near top of what is basically a “Who’s under-rated?” table.

    What about Silvester?

    I know on these pages SDS is rightly extremely well thought of, Yeats. May be Champion Jockey, but doesn’t get the rides in big races his talent deserves and even though Champion and winning so many races is still under-rated by markets. Some things just don’t make sense; hope it’s nothing to do with race?. He rode my biggest priced winner (Arabian Queen) and is an amazing judge of pace.

    value is everything
    #1337603
    stevecaution
    stevecaution
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    • Total Posts 7215

    The table I saw showed that Adam Kirby’s WAX was +40

    By my calculation, that makes him a RUBY WAX :whistle:

    What's all the fuss about Estimate on the Racing Legends Stamps?

    There's always been a second rate Mare on them anyway 😉

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