2018 Classic Chase

Home Forums Big Races – Discussion 2018 Classic Chase

This topic contains 44 replies, has 23 voices, and was last updated by Gingertipster Gingertipster 5 months ago.

Viewing 15 posts - 31 through 45 (of 45 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #1337371

    Mike007
    Participant
    • Total Posts 370

    That’ll be Nina Carberry.

    #1337374
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 23350

    No, Nina has always been whip happy and ridden primarily against amateurs. Bryony is different class, especially given her inexperience.

    value is everything
    #1337380
    CharlesOlney
    CharlesOlney
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1833

    Well, that’s what I thought might happen… In the Welsh National. 😥

    I backed him every time he ran last season but gave up in him for this season and just when I was about to start patting myself on the back… bang! in he goes.

    Complete change for the horse though. New rider, new tactics and new headgear. When you look back it all seemed very clear that this was a bit of an old plot.

    #1337412

    Mike007
    Participant
    • Total Posts 370

    We will agree to disagree on that one.
    :yes:

    #1337416
    yeats
    yeats
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2860

    Did you see James Willoughby on Luck on Sunday Gingertipster? He had Bryony’s WAX figure as zero lol.

    #1337515

    jumpsfan
    Participant
    • Total Posts 97

    I’ve said since his hurdling days he’d win a regional National but how many chances do you give a horse? The closest I got with him was when he was second in the Midlands. I got that sinking feeling on Saturday you know the one…oh no not Milansbar!

    #1337542
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 23350

    I was kicking myself for not having betting-in-running up on my computer at the time. Once Milansbar went three fences it was clear he was enjoying racing a lot more than had for ages. Appendages and fromt running obviously suit. Although I think Bryony is a master (or should that be mistress?) at getting them jumping.

    value is everything
    #1337544
    steeplechasing
    steeplechasing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5279

    From a Willoughby article on WAX:

    A significant measure of caution must be applied to WAX figures from a single season alone. Firstly, the sample-size is relatively small, for it takes at least 500 rides before this metric begins to stabilize. Second, and more significantly, if a high proportion of a jockey’s rides are supplied by only one or two trainers, his or her WAX may just be a reflection of whether the stable is underrated or overrated.

    She’s had 308 rides over 3 seasons. Her father and P Nicholls provided 250 of those.

    Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference. https://lazybet.com/

    #1337550
    yeats
    yeats
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2860

    Does that mean Paul Nicholls is underrated or overrated steeplechasing?

    Willo put up a table on Sunday were most of the jockeys had under 500 rides, several had less than 200. Joe Colliver in the top 10?

    Ryan Moore doesn’t even appear in his flat one. He states that science tells you better than your eyes who a good jockey is but these tables are seriously flawed, least of all it only takes account of winners, a ride beaten a nose is treated the same as a ride tailed off and it is all concerning the past, no reason to believe it’s predictive of the future.

    I’m tempted to say it’s rubbish 😉

    #1337571
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 23350

    Just watched that Willo piece. Wouldn’t say it’s “rubbish”. Seems to me it says far more about which jockey is under-rated rather than who’s the best/better jockey. So is a very worthwhile venture. However, fact those thought of as the “best jockey/s” are overbet and therefore don’t get in the WAX doesn’t mean they’re not in fact the “best jockeys”. Similarly, Bryony Frost is probably currently a little overbet because she’s the best woman jockey. Saturday’s performance was imo special, but we do get racing presenters going OTT whenever a Lady jockey wins. Best Lady jockey won’t take long at all to be noticed and once noticed that’s it as far as this table is concerned. Shouldn’t expect Ryan Moore, Richard Johnson or Bryont Frost to be anywhere near top of what is basically a “Who’s under-rated?” table.

    value is everything
    #1337572
    yeats
    yeats
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2860

    Shouldn’t expect Ryan Moore, Richard Johnson or Bryont Frost to be anywhere near top of what is basically a “Who’s under-rated?” table.

    What about Silvester?

    #1337577
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 23350

    I know on these pages SDS is rightly extremely well thought of, Yeats. May be Champion Jockey, but doesn’t get the rides in big races his talent deserves and even though Champion and winning so many races is still under-rated by markets. Some things just don’t make sense; hope it’s nothing to do with race?. He rode my biggest priced winner (Arabian Queen) and is an amazing judge of pace.

    value is everything
    #1337603
    stevecaution
    stevecaution
    Participant
    • Total Posts 8079

    The table I saw showed that Adam Kirby’s WAX was +40

    By my calculation, that makes him a RUBY WAX :whistle:

    The Total Recall followers make their way to Aintree.

    #1337637
    yeats
    yeats
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2860

    eg Anyone who thinks Ryan Moore is overrated are underrating him and anyone who thinks Joe Colliver is underrated is overrating him.

    Willo comes up with all these tables, stats and equations but never does any follow up. As already stated the major weakness with his latest jockeys “underrated” tables is that he only includes winning rides. Fantastic rides to get placed are treated the same as crap rides to finish last. If you can’t or wont do a job properly why bother?

    #1337715
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 23350

    Trouble is who says what is a good second place and a bad second place?
    Also; when racing against a short priced favourite some jockeys intentionally ride for second, these would come out of your stats better than those trying their utmost to win.

    value is everything
Viewing 15 posts - 31 through 45 (of 45 total)

You must be logged in to reply to this topic.