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2017 July Cup


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This topic contains 60 replies, has 18 voices, and was last updated by Gingertipster Gingertipster 2 days, 13 hours ago.

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  • #1310294
    Triptych
    Triptych
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    Just home from a great day out but had to come here and say…..

    :yahoo: Well done Nathan and Ginge :yahoo: Harry Angel was one of the most impressive winners of the July Cup I have seen and totally deserved win. Loving the new Avatar Nathan :good:

    Limato ran a brave race to take second place and my loyalties stayed with him having backed him last year.
    Must say it’s one of the worst July Festivals in betting terms that I have ever had as I managed to back both the fancied Godolphin runners that lost today Afaak and Silken Dancer and Frontiersman on the first day.
    Having said that I have enjoyed every single minute of it and count myself lucky having been there and seen top class horses.

    Highlight of the meeting for me was seeing Roly Poly secure her place as a top Brood Mare by winning the Falmouth Stakes after being the Bridesmaid on so many occassions.

    Well done again to Ginger for spotlighting Brando as an each way pick. He always makes me smile when he walks past in the paddock as he is like Mike Tyson turning up at a high class tea party, he looked like he could have eaten them all for breakfast. Great to see him back to form after his broken blood vessel last time out at York. :rose: Jac

    Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...
    #1310351

    MTOTO88
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    Well done GT – Great tipping

    #1310353
    stevecaution
    stevecaution
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    Aidan is talking about dropping Caravaggio to 5F. That makes little sense to me, because the horse would have been beaten even further if the July Cup had been 5F. In the Commonwealth Cup Caravaggio was working hard in behind Harry Angel and Blue Point, and as they hit the furlong pole he was still behind the pair and needed that final furlong to reel them in.

    In the July Cup Caravaggio earned this write up from the ATR team:-

    “Unable to quicken when slightly hampered on near side over 1f out, kept on inside final furlong, went 4th towards finish, never going pace to threaten”

    At the furlong pole he was well held and it takes him until the dying strides to catch his pacemaker and 100/1 shot Intelligence Cross to beat him a neck.

    I still feel the Coventry was his most dominant performance and he’s never been a point and shoot trailblazer. He will remain vulnerable in my opinion to horses with true 5F speed.

    What's all the fuss about Estimate on the Racing Legends Stamps?

    There's always been a second rate Mare on them anyway 😉

    #1310355
    Nathan Hughes
    Nathan Hughes
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    Just reading the French race could be next for Caravaggio over 6 and a half

    https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/gheest-target-for-caravaggio/87997

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #1310386
    stevecaution
    stevecaution
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    Just reading the French race could be next for Caravaggio over 6 and a half

    https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/gheest-target-for-caravaggio/87997

    Ir there is cut in the ground he will have a chance Nathan :whistle:

    What's all the fuss about Estimate on the Racing Legends Stamps?

    There's always been a second rate Mare on them anyway 😉

    #1310390
    CharlesOlney
    CharlesOlney
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    Harry’s course seems pretty laid out and I’d imagine all roads lead to the Foret for Limato. Personally I’d love to see Henry Candy and Paul Jacobs ignore America this time and take Limato to Hong Kong in December.

    I agree that the Maurice de Gheest is the best target for Caravaggio. I’m a very firm believer that you should always forgive a horse one bad run. Forget about Australia all together, it’s an impossible task and they’ll scupper the chance to win an all-aged European Group 1.

    #1310393

    wordfromthewise
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    Delighted that the Coolmore team tactics blew up in their faces …very satisfying that they failed to get Harry Angel at it and that he actually won.

    #1310431
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
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    Unless Coolmore change tactics, Caravaggio needs more of a test of stamina than 6f on a faster track (Newmarket) with slower run early fractions (faster latter fractions) which gave not only the speed deficit, but also the added positional disadvantage. ie Either a stronger run race on good-firm (like the Commonwealth at Ascot) or softer ground should suit.

    value is everything
    #1310480
    LostSoldier3
    LostSoldier3
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    Steve, I notice you have a great deal of respect for the Racing Post Ratings. I see you’re often quoting them to make a point. Many in the industry (must admit I’m on their side) consider them something of an ongoing joke.

    What makes you trust them above ORs and Timeform ratings?

    #1310485
    stevecaution
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    Steve, I notice you have a great deal of respect for the Racing Post Ratings. I see you’re often quoting them to make a point. Many in the industry (must admit I’m on their side) consider them something of an ongoing joke.

    What makes you trust them above ORs and Timeform ratings?

    I don’t trust them implicitly by any means at all. It’s merely a ball park figure and I use it because they are free and normally come out fairly quickly. You can wait for a long time on a Wednesday before the official ratings get their fingers out.

    I sometimes put a rough figure up myself right after the race. When I watched The Pentagon at the weekend, I mused that he had run to roughly 100. RP gave him 105. As I say, it’s mostly when I can’t get the other figures that I quote the Racing Post.

    You can pay and get Timeform to tell you Wings Of Eagles was 124p after the Derby. That’s a joke if ever there was one B-)

    What's all the fuss about Estimate on the Racing Legends Stamps?

    There's always been a second rate Mare on them anyway 😉

    #1310489
    LostSoldier3
    LostSoldier3
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    Fair play. Thanks for getting back to me so quickly, especially since I posted the question on the wrong thread!

    Good point about Timeform too. Wings Of Eagles an especially guessy one on their part!

    I think good old fashioned ORs are probably the best ratings going although, like Timeform, they can lack a bit of perspective with the best horses at times. It would be good if all of them had the ability to make retrospective amendments. No shame in admitting you got it wrong.

    #1310498
    stevecaution
    stevecaution
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    Fair play. Thanks for getting back to me so quickly, especially since I posted the question on the wrong thread!

    Good point about Timeform too. Wings Of Eagles an especially guessy one on their part!

    I think good old fashioned ORs are probably the best ratings going although, like Timeform, they can lack a bit of perspective with the best horses at times. It would be good if all of them had the ability to make retrospective amendments. No shame in admitting you got it wrong.

    Nobody can get it right all the time, it’s an impossible field.

    I sometimes wonder if they give a higher rating than normal because they want to be seen to be “More correct” about an improving type?

    I thought the idea was to give roughly what they had run to on the day and then, in the case of Timeform, give a p for potential improvement, or a capital P for potentially above normal improvement.

    Timeform were famously bullish about Time Test and had him way higher than the official handicapper did. The horse has been beaten favourite twice in his new career for Chad Brown. He was defeated at odds on at Belmont Park in a Grade 3 race, where the Racing Post had him running to 106.

    The Racing Post recorded Time Test as having recorded his best rating (124) in winning the Brigadier Gerard by a neck from Western Hymn. Subsequent events since beating Gosden’s notorious dodge pot suggest that the 124 rating is fanciful.

    As you say, why can’t people admit they over-rated a horse?

    Last year, US Army Ranger went into The Derby rated 108. He emerged from the second place finish with a rating of 121. I said at the time that this (The Official Rating) had probably been inflated just because it was the Derby. Of course, I got pelters from the usual outlets.

    US Army Ranger has never won again and the Racing Post has consistently shown him to have run well below his official rating, yet it has taken the handicapper ages to admit that the horse is nowhere near that ropey Derby rating. US Army Ranger has finally dropped to 110. Which is, coincidentally pretty much the rating he went into the Derby on. Surely the most obvious explanation is that the horse simply never was a 121 horse?

    The probability, based on the statistics, is that the Derby run was an “Outlier”, which would be eliminated from deriving a true mean figure.

    Winner Harzand was given 112 and 110 for his last two runs by the Racing Post, the official handicapper only dropped him 2 lbs for that but had he raced on, he may have come down further. He went into Epsom rated 110 and that was the figure the Racing Post gave him for his run behind Found in the Arc.

    Ulysses could well be the best horse who ran in that Derby and Cloth Of Stars may be the other contender.

    What's all the fuss about Estimate on the Racing Legends Stamps?

    There's always been a second rate Mare on them anyway 😉

    #1310520
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
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    Fair play. Thanks for getting back to me so quickly, especially since I posted the question on the wrong thread!

    Good point about Timeform too. Wings Of Eagles an especially guessy one on their part!

    I think good old fashioned ORs are probably the best ratings going although, like Timeform, they can lack a bit of perspective with the best horses at times. It would be good if all of them had the ability to make retrospective amendments. No shame in admitting you got it wrong.

    Nobody can get it right all the time, it’s an impossible field.

    I sometimes wonder if they give a higher rating than normal because they want to be seen to be “More correct” about an improving type?

    I thought the idea was to give roughly what they had run to on the day and then, in the case of Timeform, give a p for potential improvement, or a capital P for potentially above normal improvement.

    Timeform were famously bullish about Time Test and had him way higher than the official handicapper did. The horse has been beaten favourite twice in his new career for Chad Brown. He was defeated at odds on at Belmont Park in a Grade 3 race, where the Racing Post had him running to 106.

    The Racing Post recorded Time Test as having recorded his best rating (124) in winning the Brigadier Gerard by a neck from Western Hymn. Subsequent events since beating Gosden’s notorious dodge pot suggest that the 124 rating is fanciful.

    As you say, why can’t people admit they over-rated a horse?

    Last year, US Army Ranger went into The Derby rated 108. He emerged from the second place finish with a rating of 121. I said at the time that this (The Official Rating) had probably been inflated just because it was the Derby. Of course, I got pelters from the usual outlets.

    US Army Ranger has never won again and the Racing Post has consistently shown him to have run well below his official rating, yet it has taken the handicapper ages to admit that the horse is nowhere near that ropey Derby rating. US Army Ranger has finally dropped to 110. Which is, coincidentally pretty much the rating he went into the Derby on. Surely the most obvious explanation is that the horse simply never was a 121 horse?

    The probability, based on the statistics, is that the Derby run was an “Outlier”, which would be eliminated from deriving a true mean figure.

    Winner Harzand was given 112 and 110 for his last two runs by the Racing Post, the official handicapper only dropped him 2 lbs for that but had he raced on, he may have come down further. He went into Epsom rated 110 and that was the figure the Racing Post gave him for his run behind Found in the Arc.

    Ulysses could well be the best horse who ran in that Derby and Cloth Of Stars may be the other contender.

    Yes, “nobody can get it right all the time” – Time Test a case in point with Timeform, but they had already brought Time Test’s rating down from the Tercentenary level (of 130 I believe) to 125 in their Racehorses Of 2015 annual. So they did “admit they over-rated” him. But why let the facts get in the way of your story, Stevie Boy? :roll eyes: Exaggeration seems to be a habit when it comes to you and Timeform.

    Time Test is not that straightforward and remains to be seen whether he’ll be as good for a different trainer/in the States.

    Anyway, your own confirmation bias seems to be stronger than Racing Post’s or Timeform’s. 😉
    You yourself want to believe you were right in rating last year’s Derby as poor, so are clinging on to what little evidence you’ve got for that opinion to be correct.

    After both Harzand and third placed Idaho franked Epsom form in the Irish Derby. Had Harzand been only a 112 or 110 horse, the distances of the Irish Derby would never have been 1/2, 3 3/4, shrt hd to Idho, Stellar Mass and Red Verdon. Stellar Mass went on to win his next two, including Group 3 Ballyroan by 1/2 length and 1 1/2 from Armela (who next time won the listed Oyster easily by 4 3/4 lengths) and St Leger runner-up Bondi Beach. Red Verdon on his next start was only beaten 1 1/4 lengths in the Group 1 Grand Prix De Paris by Mount Ormel, with your Cloth Of Stars a neck away in 3rd. So strictly on a line through Red Verdon, the Irish/English Derby winner can be rated just over 3 lengths in front of the Grand Prix De Paris.

    Idaho went on to again frank the form when winning both Voltigeur and Hardwicke.

    Harzand’s “last two runs” were at 10f on good-soft in the Irish Champion. Then ran in the Arc after an interupted preparation and on the firmest going he’d ever raced on… having previously shown he’s particularly suited by a test of stamina (and give in the ground) at 1m4f. So it’s surely unsurprising he was below form on his last two runs? Do you really think Harzand ran to form in finishing 10 lengths behind Found in the Arc? 😆

    You’re not seriously suggesting US Army Ranger should have been 112 after the Derby, Steve? :scratch:
    Horses are not rated on their best form. They are rated on what they are now thought capable of given their optimum conditions. “Most obvious explanation” why US Army Ranger’s rating has come down is: Immediately after Epsom he was off the track for 12 weeks and (like many who come back from injury) is in all probability not as good as he once was; hence the reduction in rating. :yes:

    Timeform’s ratings are on a different scale to others (like degrees C against degrees F). If punters do not recognise that then they’ll always (wrongly) think their ratings are too high.
    124 Timeform rating for Wings Of Eagles is not that high at all for a Derby winner, eg Harzand was 126 and Golden Horn 130.

    At the end of 2016 there were 12 three year olds rated higher than 124 in Timeform Racehorses Of 2016, 14 if counting fillies with an allowance.

    • This reply was modified 4 days, 21 hours ago by Gingertipster Gingertipster.
    value is everything
    #1310721
    stevecaution
    stevecaution
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    Tedious.

    What's all the fuss about Estimate on the Racing Legends Stamps?

    There's always been a second rate Mare on them anyway 😉

    #1310722
    stevecaution
    stevecaution
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    Re the RPR for Gustav Klimt and The Pentagon.

    Timeform gave Gustav 112p on Kelvin Scale. While they awarded 109p on the Kelvin Scale to The Pentagon.

    Those figures back up my feeling that there wasn’t much between the two but one is 7/1 for the Guineas and the other 33/1.

    What's all the fuss about Estimate on the Racing Legends Stamps?

    There's always been a second rate Mare on them anyway 😉

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