2017 Changes to the European Pattern

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  • #1313434
    Gingertipster
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    Also, only one of the last 10 years 6th horse put up a better Timeform Performance rating than this year’s race. Some 6th placed horses were 10 lbs worse! As said, It’s the overall quality of the field that needed to improve, not just one or two horses. :good:

    You’re talking absolute rubbish Gingertipster, you pick a 6th place horse at random as though it’s some sort of vindication.
    You even attempt to insult trainers of the experience of Mark Johnston and John Gosden by saying they would be influenced by the psychological nature of 2 miles :scratch:

    The fact is that with the race having to be moved back up in distance to 1m 7f by their ill fated move down to 1m 6f there will absolutely no difference in horses who will have competed in a G2 over 2 miles from the ones who will compete over 1m 7f.
    So what ever improvements there will be in the quality of horses competing will have nothing to do with the distance of the race.

    You say anyone can make a mistake but there’s a committee, are you trying to tell me it’s acceptable that no one on that committee could foresee the problems with dropping down to 1m 6f?

    Anyone know where you can find the members of this Pattern Race Committee?

    Everyone is affected by things psycological, Yeats; including you, me, Johnnie G and Johnnie M. We don’t have any choice in the matter. It’s not an “insult”; just something we’ve all got to get used to. 😉

    No, I did not choose 6th place “at random”, it was because imo it illustrates the strength in depth of this year’s race.
    As I said, of the previous 10 years only 1 horse placed 6th put up a better Timeform rating in the race than this year’s 6th.
    If you want to use 5th place it would be 3 horses in 10.
    If using 4th or 3rd it would be just 2 in 10.

    Mistakes are never “acceptable”, this one does seem avoidable; but mistakes do happen.

    1m6f is shorter than 1m7f and 1m7f is shorter than 2m – as said – there are other encouragements which hopefully all add up to something that is effective in increasing the number of stayers and their quality. I don’t care whether it’s the dropping in trip that does the trick, or the upping to “Group 2” or making the Goodwood Cup a Group 1. ie Those that run in the Queens Vase get experience of a strong, comprtitive good class race, which therefore hopefully increases the chances of a trainer’s three year old’s of winning a Group 1 if going on to Goodwood. Remember Stradivarius and Desert Skyline? 😉 There are of course no guarantees in the long run, I’m not sure it will improve things, but can understand the logic in trying and imo this year’s race is encouraging. You seem certain it won’t work. Go on, give the initiative a chance, Yeats. :rose:

    value is everything
    #1313443
    Gingertipster
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    Here is Mark Johnston’s view prior to this years race –

    “The Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot, having only recently been downgraded from Group 3 to Listed, has now leapfrogged up to Group 2 “as part of British racing’s long term plan to safeguard the staying breed”. That has to be good news. But, at the same time, the distance of the race has been reduced from 2 miles to 14 furlongs. Eh? What is the move doing for the staying breed?

    Is 14 furlongs a “staying” race? I know some will say it is and I well remember that, back in 1995, Double Trigger missed out on being crowned Champion Stayer despite having won all 5 Cup races that year because Strategic Choice earned a higher rating for his third place in the 12 furlong King George and was deemed to be a stayer because he had run in that year’s Irish St Leger over 14 furlongs. But that couldn’t happen now and, even then, surely most of us would have accepted 14 furlongs as being a classic distance – the distance of the St Leger.
    The Queen’s Vase has always been, for me, the first big test of the true three-year old stayers. A true trial for Cup horses of the future. That said, in the last 20 years, only 3 Ascot Gold Cup winners had run in the Queen’s Vase. I’m not sure if that makes it a good trial or not but those three were Leading Light and Estimate, who had both won the Vase, and Mr Dinos, who had finished second.

    Would Leading Light and Estimate have won the Queen’s Vase over 14 furlongs? Maybe, but we can’t be sure.

    I am a huge supporter of the principles to promote the breeding and racing of stayers in Britain but I have some grave reservations about the methods being employed. Our Kingsley Klarion went to press just before this change was announced but in it I have queried other parts of this initiative which involve the programming of two-year-old maiden races over 7 and 8 furlongs for horses whose sire won over a minimum of nine and a half furlongs.

    To my mind it is quite simple, if you want to promote the breeding and racing of stayers, you . You don’t do it by putting meaningless restrictions on 7 furlong maidens and you don’t do it by reducing distances of the best stamina tests.”

    Well Yeats, I can see Mark Johnston was not a “random” choice of yours. 1m6f132yrds is the “classic” staying distance. Anything upwards of 1m6f can reasonably be considered a “staying race”. Especially in mid-June of a three year old career. Johnston is the master at relaxing horses and has more staying breds than most British trainers. Therefore, will have on his hands more three year olds capable of staying 2m at this time of year than other trainer. It’s in his best interests to have the race over 2m and no doubt if the Queens Vase were 2 1/2 miles he’d win even more of them. But the fact is amongst the whole 3 year old community – there are more staying three year olds who are (at that point in June) thought effective at 1m6f than 2m, 1m7f will be slightly less but not as bad as 2m. We’ve already got the question being asked, “will Stradivarius be fast enough to win the St Leger come September? The longer the staying trip the fewer good “stayers” will run in the Queens Vase. Therefore, changes are designed to do exactly what he’s said “improve opportunities and/or prize-money for (more) stayers” :yes: Mark Johnston can always make the race in to a stronger test of stamina by making a faster pace… Something his jockeys failed to do this year. Why? :unsure:

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    #1313455
    CharlesOlney
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    Is 14 furlongs a “staying” race? Surely most of us would have accepted 14 furlongs as being a classic distance – the distance of the St Leger.

    I agree with him there. I think races beyond the St Leger distance should be classified as staying.

    We want to stay as far away from the American and Australian mind-sets on this topic as possible.

    #1313460

    yeats
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    There are of course no guarantees in the long run, I’m not sure it will improve things, but can understand the logic in trying and imo this year’s race is encouraging. You seem certain it won’t work. Go on, give the initiative a chance, Yeats. :rose:

    You seem to be missing the point Gingertipster, none of us will be able to see how it works in the future unless the distance remains at 14fs.

    No horse will not run in the race over 15fs who would have run in the race if it had remained over 16fs, similarly no horse who runs in it over 15fs would not have run it over 16fs.
    They may as well just left it at 2 miles and upgraded it to G2, it will get exactly the same field over 15fs.

    So your only hope of monitoring changes in future is if they keep it at 14fs, unlikely in my view.

    As for your comments regards Johnston and his ulterior motives maybe you shouldn’t judge others by your own standards.
    Some people do have the good of the sport at heart.

    #1313473
    Gingertipster
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    There are of course no guarantees in the long run, I’m not sure it will improve things, but can understand the logic in trying and imo this year’s race is encouraging. You seem certain it won’t work. Go on, give the initiative a chance, Yeats. :rose:

    You seem to be missing the point Gingertipster, none of us will be able to see how it works in the future unless the distance remains at 14fs.

    No horse will not run in the race over 15fs who would have run in the race if it had remained over 16fs, similarly no horse who runs in it over 15fs would not have run it over 16fs.
    They may as well just left it at 2 miles and upgraded it to G2, it will get exactly the same field over 15fs.

    So your only hope of monitoring changes in future is if they keep it at 14fs, unlikely in my view.

    As for your comments regards Johnston and his ulterior motives maybe you shouldn’t judge others by your own standards.
    Some people do have the good of the sport at heart.

    We “will be able to see how it works in the future”, because the quality of the field will either improve or not. You seem to be missing the point. As I say, the distance thing has always been only part of the changes brought in.

    I would hope we all “have the good of the sport at heart”, Yeats. Just have different ideas of what that is… And whether we know it or not, what’s good for us all personally affects our views on the subject sub-conciously. If we do not recognise that then we will contantly only see things purely from our own interests.

    All I am saying is Mark Johnston’s opinion isn’t exactly an unbiased one.
    Not sure what you think my “ulterior motive” is, or what my “standards” are? :unsure:

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    #1313477

    yeats
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    “We “will be able to see how it works in the future”, because the quality of the field will either improve or not. You seem to be missing the point. As I say, the distance thing has always been only part of the changes brought in.”

    What are these “other changes” you refer to? Apart from the distance the only other one I notice is going from Listed to G2. You would expect the quality of any race to improve if it goes up from Listed to G2 and is worth nearly double the money.

    Horses will have bypassed it when it was only Listed and worth considerably less. The key question was what it did for staying by reducing it to 14fs? As it looks like the brains trust will have to eat humble pie and increase the distance back up there will be nothing for you to compare in the future as it will be being run over too similar a distance as it was previously.
    Any changes in quality that do occur will be solely down to it being upgraded to G2 and nothing to do with the distance of the race unless it remains at 14fs.

    #1313497
    Gingertipster
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    What are these “other changes” you refer to? Apart from the distance the only other one I notice is going from Listed to G2. You would expect the quality of any race to improve if it goes up from Listed to G2 and is worth nearly double the money.

    Horses will have bypassed it when it was only Listed and worth considerably less. The key question was what it did for staying by reducing it to 14fs? As it looks like the brains trust will have to eat humble pie and increase the distance back up there will be nothing for you to compare in the future as it will be being run over too similar a distance as it was previously.
    Any changes in quality that do occur will be solely down to it being upgraded to G2 and nothing to do with the distance of the race unless it remains at 14fs.

    We seem to be going around in circles, Yeats.
    I went in to all the “other changes” here:

    1m6f is shorter than 1m7f and 1m7f is shorter than 2m – as said – there are other encouragements which hopefully all add up to something that is effective in increasing the number of stayers and their quality. I don’t care whether it’s the dropping in trip that does the trick, or the upping to “Group 2” or making the Goodwood Cup a Group 1. ie Those that run in the Queens Vase get experience of a strong, comprtitive good class race, which therefore hopefully increases the chances of a trainer’s three year old’s of winning a Group 1 if going on to Goodwood. Remember Stradivarius and Desert Skyline? 😉

    It’s not only changes made to the Queens Vase that will help the Queens Vase. Changes made to other races should help indirectly too.

    As far as distance goes:
    You may think a furlong makes no difference to connections. St Leger is just 1 furlong 105 yards short of 2m.
    If a furlong doesn’t matter, does 105 yards?
    Do you really think Michael Stoute would be running Crystal Ocean in a 2 miles St Leger?
    I suggest there’d be far fewer good stayers in the St Leger if it were 2m. Although am sure Mark Johnston would love it. 😉

    There are many courses with starts fairly close to the first bend. Northumberland Plate, Chester Cup etc. If the Queens Vase was put back another 124 yards, that may well be far enough and is then exactly the same distance as the St Leger.

    But as I say, I don’t particularly care what improves the quality of the Queens Vase as long as it does improve.

    value is everything
    #1313764

    yeats
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    As far as distance goes:
    You may think a furlong makes no difference to connections. St Leger is just 1 furlong 105 yards short of 2m.
    If a furlong doesn’t matter, does 105 yards?
    Do you really think Michael Stoute would be running Crystal Ocean in a 2 miles St Leger?
    I suggest there’d be far fewer good stayers in the St Leger if it were 2m. Although am sure Mark Johnston would love it. 😉

    There are many courses with starts fairly close to the first bend. Northumberland Plate, Chester Cup etc. If the Queens Vase was put back another 124 yards, that may well be far enough and is then exactly the same distance as the St Leger.

    But as I say, I don’t particularly care what improves the quality of the Queens Vase as long as it does improve.

    The St Leger is a classic, that’s why horse’s like Shergar who didn’t stay the trip ran in it. No one wants the race over 2 miles.

    I’m a traditionalist and don’t believe in changing things if they aren’t broken. The Queen’s Vase worked well for me as a G3 and over 2 miles.

    I haven’t got clue whether they will increase the distance of the Queens Vase to what you say or err on the side of caution and increase it to 1 mile 7f.
    You may not care what improves the quality of the Vase but you should realise whatever does occur will be the same at 1m 7f as it would have been over 2 miles :yes:

    #1313772
    Gingertipster
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    As far as distance goes:
    You may think a furlong makes no difference to connections. St Leger is just 1 furlong 105 yards short of 2m.
    If a furlong doesn’t matter, does 105 yards?
    Do you really think Michael Stoute would be running Crystal Ocean in a 2 miles St Leger?
    I suggest there’d be far fewer good stayers in the St Leger if it were 2m. Although am sure Mark Johnston would love it. 😉

    There are many courses with starts fairly close to the first bend. Northumberland Plate, Chester Cup etc. If the Queens Vase was put back another 124 yards, that may well be far enough and is then exactly the same distance as the St Leger.

    But as I say, I don’t particularly care what improves the quality of the Queens Vase as long as it does improve.

    The St Leger is a classic, that’s why horse’s like Shergar who didn’t stay the trip ran in it. No one wants the race over 2 miles.

    I’m a traditionalist and don’t believe in changing things if they aren’t broken. The Queen’s Vase worked well for me as a G3 and over 2 miles.

    I haven’t got clue whether they will increase the distance of the Queens Vase to what you say or err on the side of caution and increase it to 1 mile 7f.
    You may not care what improves the quality of the Vase but you should realise whatever does occur will be the same at 1m 7f as it would have been over 2 miles :yes:

    Now you’re beginning to understand, Yeats. St Leger is nearer to 1m7f than 1m6f.
    As you imply, connections wanting to run in the St Leger would be put off if the “Classic” was a 2 mile race.

    Does it not then make sense that some with prospective St Leger (“Classic”) candidates also don’t want to run at 2 miles in June?

    …Especially when a 2m race for three year olds in June needs more stamina than a race under the same conditions in September. Horses stay further with age/experience and therefore an extra furlong (or furlong and 105 yards) in June makes even more of a difference.

    It is “broken”, or at least the way the breeding industry is failing to come up with top quality stayers and how some “Racing” people think the word “stayer” is a swear word. Whole point of these changes is to try and improve things.

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    #1314326

    yeats
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    No, I did not choose 6th place “at random”, it was because imo it illustrates the strength in depth of this year’s race.
    As I said, of the previous 10 years only 1 horse placed 6th put up a better Timeform rating in the race than this year’s 6th.
    If you want to use 5th place it would be 3 horses in 10.
    If using 4th or 3rd it would be just 2 in 10.

    The BHA’s head of handicapping Phil Smith stated yesterday on ATR that this year’s renewal was the second worst out of the last 6 runnings of the Queen’s Vase, which has to be disappointing to some when it’s been upgraded to G2 and reduced in distance.
    Of course as you yourself stated you can’t just take the winner in isolation, they could run any year and we have had a couple of Gold Cup winners and Hartnell in recent seasons even when it was a lower grade
    He even mentioned the possibility of it’s status being reduced from G2, although this of course would be decided over several years rather than just one or two.
    He also stated that the key to evaluating this years renewal is when the second horse runs again.

    #1314498
    Gingertipster
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    No, I did not choose 6th place “at random”, it was because imo it illustrates the strength in depth of this year’s race.
    As I said, of the previous 10 years only 1 horse placed 6th put up a better Timeform rating in the race than this year’s 6th.
    If you want to use 5th place it would be 3 horses in 10.
    If using 4th or 3rd it would be just 2 in 10.

    The BHA’s head of handicapping Phil Smith stated yesterday on ATR that this year’s renewal was the second worst out of the last 6 runnings of the Queen’s Vase, which has to be disappointing to some when it’s been upgraded to G2 and reduced in distance.
    Of course as you yourself stated you can’t just take the winner in isolation, they could run any year and we have had a couple of Gold Cup winners and Hartnell in recent seasons even when it was a lower grade
    He even mentioned the possibility of it’s status being reduced from G2, although this of course would be decided over several years rather than just one or two.
    He also stated that the key to evaluating this years renewal is when the second horse runs again.

    Depends how you’re judging the quality of a race, Yeats. If judging it solely by the rating put up by the winner, then Phil Smith could well be right. Strictly on performance ratings Timeform also make the winner’s rating the second worst out of the last 6 runnings. They do however make the point Stradivarius challenged late, “squeezed” through and had “another gear” compared to his rivals. Truly run race would probably have seen Stradivarius win by further and therefore put up a better rating… Proved well up to previous Queens Vase standards in the Goodwood Cup. 😉

    I’ve never said the winners of previous years wouldn’t have been up to this year’s standard. It’s the overall quality of runners and therefore competitiveness of the race that has/is hopefully going to be improved. Timeform ratings of those in behind were on the whole better than previous years.

    Yes, the Group 2 status could change back if the quality of those behind the winner remains as previous years. I believe they’re giving it until 2022 so the changes can hopefully take effect.

    Wouldn’t say the second is “key” exactly. What about the horse that should’ve been second? It’s a shame the normally consistent Desert Skyline did not run to form at Ascot. On Timeform ratings running to previous Epsom form would’ve seen him take second in the Vase. That would no doubt improve those form doubters like you and Mr Smith. Subsequent form saw him staying on all the way to the line when down to an inadequate 13f in the Group 3 Bahrain Trophy. Even so, a length second to Raheen House and may have won in another furlong. Then improved to finished a good third in the Group 1 Goodwood Cup.
    Will indeed be interesting to see what the second horse going past the post Count Octave does. Certainly got scope to improve given the right conditions if all’s well with him. Lightly raced but must be a negative we haven’t seen him since and therefore won’t be a surprise if disappointing. 20/1 for the Voltigeur; very much doubt he’s good enough to get anywhere near Cracksman, especially over the Derby distance. 25/1 for the St Leger seems about right although imo will probably needs 2m+ by September.
    I wouldn’t be too quick to judge the race on the third, Secret Advisor‘s subsequent 5th. Raced at 14f on a firm surface at Ascot, 12f on very soft at Goodwood.
    Fourth placed Belgravia predictably disappointed little more than a week afterwards, but then franked the form by winning a conditions event next time.
    Fifth Time To Study is yet to race again.

    So this year’s race is working out pretty well I’d say.
    Phil Smith was negative about the race immediately afterwards and has been forced to change his opinion at least a little. 😉

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    #1314791
    Gingertipster
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    Wouldn’t say the second is “key” exactly. What about the horse that should’ve been second? It’s a shame the normally consistent Desert Skyline did not run to form at Ascot. On Timeform ratings running to previous Epsom form would’ve seen him take second in the Vase. That would no doubt improve those form doubters like you and Mr Smith. Subsequent form saw him staying on all the way to the line when down to an inadequate 13f in the Group 3 Bahrain Trophy. Even so, a length second to Raheen House and may have won in another furlong. Then improved to finished a good third in the Group 1 Goodwood Cup.

    Horse that should’ve been second in the Vase gives the race another boost. Desert Skyline running an excellent second in the Kergorlay, despite being stone last off the turn in a race where the winner and third were always prominent. 😉

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    #1315861
    Gingertipster
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    I wouldn’t be too quick to judge the race on the third, Secret Advisor‘s subsequent 5th. Raced at 14f on a firm surface at Ascot, 12f on very soft at Goodwood.

    That Group 2 Queens Vase is working out well. 😉

    value is everything
    #1315955
    CharlesOlney
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    I wouldn’t be too quick to judge the race on the third, Secret Advisor‘s subsequent 5th. Raced at 14f on a firm surface at Ascot, 12f on very soft at Goodwood.

    That Group 2 Queens Vase is working out well. 😉

    Didn’t the runner-up get turned over at Goodwood?

    I’d be interested to hear if anyone knows the situation with Haripour. He hasn’t been seen since running down the field in the Queen’s Vase. Was he injured?

    #1315956

    yeats
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    I wouldn’t be too quick to judge the race on the third, Secret Advisor‘s subsequent 5th. Raced at 14f on a firm surface at Ascot, 12f on very soft at Goodwood.

    Well handicapped and well backed fav. If you’re wanting to be promoting staying you don’t want horses running back over 12fs after the Vase which SA did.

    Leading Light & Estimate did okay after the race when it was a G3 over 2 miles quite recently.

    I see you don’t mention the second Count Octave being beaten when fav yesterday.

    In any event when the distance is moved back up there will be little if any difference to what occurs in future whether it is 2 miles or 1m 7fs.

    Haripour’s entered in the Irish Leger in a couple of weeks Charles.

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