2017 Cesarewitch

Home Forums Big Races – Discussion 2017 Cesarewitch

This topic contains 63 replies, has 24 voices, and was last updated by  moehat 1 day, 3 hours ago.

Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 64 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #1315067
    Venture to Cognac
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 11350

    Second part of The Autumn Double, and without a doubt, my favourite Flat Race. Feast or famine race for me though, and despite having had the winner on a few occasions, I’ve also had a lot of bitter disappointments. Just the 100 to chew over here……..piece of cake lol

    Only one horse on my radar this season, and that is the game as hell, and very likeable Sternrubin. One of my absolute favourites in training, and after some “so-so” efforts this year, he burst into life at Ffos Las last time, guaranteeing his place in the line up here. Represents connections who have won it before, this race is surely the reason he’s running on the level, and the trip is the only question mark over him. Strong fancy then, and I’ve had a good go win only on the 20’s at this stage. I’ll top up should he go bigger.

    Swashbuckle got the better of Sternrubin at Salisbury last month, but he’s surely better than he showed at Ascot last time, and he was always going to attract my attention here, and he’s another who looks tailor made for this. Dropped just a pound for that Ascot run, he looks fairly big at 33’s.

    Dubawi Fifty represents a fairly small yard, but he represents big owners in the shape of the Rooneys, and I can’t work out why he’s 25’s, off the back of his win last week at Nottingham. I thought he’d be clear favourite, and although I just want to be with Sternrubin just now, that 25’s with 5 places already available, is hugely tempting.

    I’ve bet both Euchen Glen & Oceane at York today, and both could line up here as well. The Goldie trained Euchen Glen is only up 2lbs for his Ascot win, so can afford to run well at York, and still strike a blow here, while Oceane probably doesn’t have that luxury. I’d prefer Euchen Glen more of the 2, but Oceane is another who represents previous winning connections, and any Alan King trained runner is worth a second glance here, and he has a few others here, not least Couer De Lion, who must have potential for this.

    I could make a case for Winston C being a potential improver, but last one I’ll mention (for now lol) are 2 horses I regularly give a nod to, in the shape of John Constable, and Swamp Fox. Swamp Fox is one of the best dual purpose horses in training, and though risky Ante-Post, is impossible to leave out of this, and very much like John Constable, is in the form of his life. This pair are surely players here.

    I’ll almost certainly add one of the others mentioned here before the day, and I’m sure a few others will come to light, but really all about Sternrubin for me, and he’ll be a “scream the house down” job, should he land it.

    GL

    #1315069

    Ben_Bernanke
    Participant
    • Total Posts 402

    What’s the average rating for the bottom weight of this race?
    I really like the horse Frederic, but with a rating of 88 I doubt he’s going to get into the Ebor

    • This reply was modified 1 month, 3 weeks ago by  Ben_Bernanke.
    #1315076
    Venture to Cognac
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 11350

    Ben, when looking at Dubawi Fifty, I gave Frederic a look also, and he’s an interesting one for sure. He should get in easily off of 88, so good luck with him :good:

    #1315094
    Venture to Cognac
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 11350

    Just added Euchen Glen at 25’s each way 5 places, very happy with him there at York.

    #1315230
    raymo61
    raymo61
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2561

    Euchan Glen ran a nice race there Bobby!! Only one to come off a slow pace and with a decent pace to aim at, which he will surely get in the Ces , has to be a player.
    If they run the godolphin horse Penglai Pavilion then that would be interesting having won the trial last year and maybe the race at York yesterday was a prep for the Ces 20/1 ish

    #1315235
    Venture to Cognac
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 11350

    Yeah, he took care of The Cashel Man last year as well, and he went on to place in The Cesarewitch, so he’s certainly the right type. Maybe needs to come down a couple of pounds, but interesting that they seem to have kept him under wraps, and I’d be surprised if he doesn’t go.

    #1318397
    Venture to Cognac
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 11350

    The Trial is at Newmarket this weekend…………

    https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/38/newmarket/2017-09-23/683294

    I’ll be focussing on Sternrubin, but strangely, I’d be happy with 3rd or 4th here, as I wouldn’t necessarily consider it essential to win this weekend, and I’d be happy enough to see him getting a good run out. Main concern is still the trip for me, and as long as he appears to cope with it, I’ll be happy.

    As well as Sternrubin, some nice ones in there, and my attention is drawn to Swashbuckle, Couer De Lion, and Shrewd, who look big dangers, not only this weekend, but in 3 weeks time as well.

    #1318533
    Venture to Cognac
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 11350

    Shrewd looks very big to me tomorrow in the trial at 14’s, and he’s 33’s across the boards for the big one next month.

    #1318592
    joliff
    joliff
    Participant
    • Total Posts 261

    I’ve just backed Sternrubin for the Cesarewitch as I think he will be shorter than 20s if running well today-usual front runner who is likely to be placed at worst I think. Hawkerland I rate as the main danger along with Coeur de Lion.

    #1318597
    raymo61
    raymo61
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2561

    I like Hawkerland too Joliff!!

    But today in the trial I am interested in Denmead who ran well at Goodwood over further than this and at 20/1 with Josie on looks a steal to me!! :good:

    #1318696
    Nathan Hughes
    Nathan Hughes
    Participant
    • Total Posts 17102

    I’m trying to weigh up the AJ Martin horse The Graduate. Had been off the track over 100 days. Won races last year and sure to come on for the run today. 40’s with Skybet has parted me a couple of quid

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #1318778
    Venture to Cognac
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 11350

    Definitely worth a try at those odds Nath, he didn’t go unnoticed yesterday.

    #1318779
    Venture to Cognac
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 11350

    Shrewd looks very big to me tomorrow in the trial at 14’s, and he’s 33’s across the boards for the big one next month.

    Couldn’t have went much worse for Sternrubin, and he’d obviously be touch and go now to go there. The last win probably did the damage, winning too easily, and possibly a combination of that and the extra 2 furlongs took it’s toll. I’d still love to see him here though for interest.

    I did take a bit of that 33’s to 5 Places on Shrewd, and he must have a decent chance of making the frame.

    #1318859

    homersimpson
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1791

    Shrewd looks very big to me tomorrow in the trial at 14’s, and he’s 33’s across the boards for the big one next month.

    Couldn’t have went much worse for Sternrubin, and he’d obviously be touch and go now to go there. The last win probably did the damage, winning too easily, and possibly a combination of that and the extra 2 furlongs took it’s toll. I’d still love to see him here though for interest.

    Definitely didn’t stay the extra 2 furlongs Bobby. Tanked into the lead but then suddenly went backwards. Possibly needs to put a lid on him but not the type of horse you can do easily. Connections may take their chance but there is a serious worry about the distance now.

    #1318883
    joliff
    joliff
    Participant
    • Total Posts 261

    Sternrubin can be quite an exuberant front runner, so stamina for this kind of trip is on the knife-edge a bit. He comfortably stays 2 miles over hurdles but the Cesarewitch is a tough race especially when trying to make all. I don’t think Queally is the best at those kinds of tactics if you ask me, compared to a Joe Fanning for example, but I know the owners are keen to use him. Having backed the horse I am a bit worried now, but I wonder if he could be switched off a tad to try and save his energy for the extra couple of furlongs, it is a big ask though.

    I won’t back anything until the day now but Alan King is in such good form at present he may continue the run until October and so any of his entries deserve respect.

Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 64 total)

You must be logged in to reply to this topic.