Derby 2014

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This topic contains 153 replies, has 1 voice, and was last updated by  darren83 5 years, 1 month ago.

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  • #474101

    andyod
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    After watching Johann Strauss today I don’t believe that he will win the Derby with his present rider.

    #475097
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    No word on where or when my "rag"

    Munjaz

    will reappear this season but I see he has been given an entry in The Dante. I also noted that Paul Hanagan nominated him as his horse to follow for this season when he was asked last December.

    Aiden O’Brien ran Battle Of Marengo in the Ballysax last year and he became the stable’s supposed best chance at Epsom. That race is renewed on Saturday and looking at the entries now it would seem

    Geoffrey Chaucer

    is his most likely sort this time around.

    Currently a 16/1 shot, a victory for Geoffrey Chowser (as the trainer calls him) would surely see his odds cut in half for Epsom into second favourite spot behind stablemate, and wonder horse, Australia, so it is probably a good idea to get in now if you fancy him.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #475178
    Nathan Hughes
    Nathan Hughes
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    • Total Posts 19593

    Bunker is an interesting entry. Hannon’s yard isn’t known for Derby runners but they haven’t had too many sired by Hurricane Run with Bunker having won 2/3 with his only defeat at Royal Ascot behind Berkshire who arguably had the best side of the track to run from the way that race panned out. I’m not saying he will win or place but was highly regarded before debut last year and interesting contender at 40/1.

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #475574
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    Western Hymn is my main hope for Epsom now. John Gosden’s High Chapparal colt didn’t run until Early December at Kempton and based on that I wasn’t particularly interested. However, vibes were positive before his re-appearance at Newbury and he showed a good turn of foot to win easily over 10f on Good to Soft. He is entered in the Dante at York and if he wins there he will be a single figure price for the Derby. I think he’ll get the trip and will act on the track. The turn of foot he has shown thus far should be a valuable asset and 20/1 is a great each-way bet with the stable flying high and some Guineas runners holding places in the market that will be questioned when stamina is considered more closely. I snagged 33/1 Western Hymn from a local independent to some minor money. I’m not JP McManus but I’m happy with my wager.

    Western Hymn 20/1 Boylesports

    Recommended 20pts each way

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #475782
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    Free Eagle

    has had a setback and misses both Epsom and Irish Derbies. Will be trained for an autumn campaign now.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #476833
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    Western Hymn managed to win today but opinions were very mixed on how react to the performance. Pushed out to 16/1 in a couple of places and cut into as low as 9/1 in others.

    Connections reckoned he coped with the ground as well as anything else in the race but that it blunted his turn of foot. He ran about a bit in front and looked to me that he had a bit to learn yet. John Gosden thought he was in front a bit too soon and is hoping for better ground at York for the Dante, where they are keen to run him to know better how good the horse actually is.

    Looking at the Deby overall I feel True Story might be pretty short based on one good looking win. Time will tell how good that actually was and Godolphin have been a bit hit and miss thus far. Depending on how the Guineas pans out there will be massive implications for the Derby market. Australia could be an unbackable price and/or Kingston Hill could enhance his claim. Geoffrey Chaucer seems Aiden’s biggest candidate this season amongst horses in the yard who are not called Australia and he is also a Dante possible. I would think the stable 3yos will need to be in better fettle by then for me to have confidence in his prospects of laying down a serious marker.

    Western Hymn looks like he can improve again and he’s won on the all weather, good to soft and now soft. There is just the possibility he could improve for a faster surface, if connections feelings are correct. Today suggested he will get the trip at Epsom and he has several boxes ticked that others have still to get the pen out for. You could do worse than try him at 16/1 I think.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #478427

    andyod
    Member
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    Have a look at Nov3rd 2013 Leopardstown.The race is the 12:45.The result was 1st Blue Hussar.He is entered in the Lingfield Derby Trial on Saturday.Worth a reminder before the race.Reminds me of Pour moi.

    #478434

    andyod
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    "Looking at the Deby overall I feel True Story might be pretty short based on one good looking win. Time will tell how good that actually was and Godolphin have been a bit hit and miss thus far. Depending on how the Guineas pans out there will be massive implications for the Derby market."
    Now I don’t know much about Saeed or Kieren for that matter but if both thought that True Story was a real Derby horse who am I to doubt them?
    Incidentally did the writer know when he penned the above how true it would prove!

    #478479
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    "Looking at the Deby overall I feel True Story might be pretty short based on one good looking win. Time will tell how good that actually was and Godolphin have been a bit hit and miss thus far. Depending on how the Guineas pans out there will be massive implications for the Derby market."
    Now I don’t know much about Saeed or Kieren for that matter but if both thought that True Story was a real Derby horse who am I to doubt them?
    Incidentally did the writer know when he penned the above how true it would prove!

    I am not sure what you are driving at here andy.

    I try to foresee potential outcomes to try to get a step ahead of the bookies but don’t always succeed.

    Australia did enough in the Guineas to warrant his place as Derby Favourite and just has the course and the distance to worry about. If we look at True Story he is now almost only worth a win bet, whereas at 14/1 after his seasonal debut he was each way value. Without doing anything he is now a third of the price he was and it doesn’t matter how much the trainer and Mr Fallon think of him, he still has to make a step up in class and trip on one of the trickiest tracks to adapt to.

    True Story was a good winner of the Fielden Stakes but that is a listed race and if you read down a generation of winners of the race you won’t find a Derby winner in the list.

    The Lingfield Derby Trial takes place tomorrow and looks very open, it would seem unlikely that anything less than a real romp for one of the contenders would cause more than a ripple in the Derby betting but hope remains that my rank outsider Munjaz can at least secure his place at Epsom and let me dream of a 66/1 coup from left field.

    This Sunday sees a chance to test the water of the Fielden form when runner up Obliterate takes on the well touted Geoffrey Chaucer in the Derrinstown Stud at Leopardstown. The race was won by Battle Of Marengo at 2/13 last year and Aiden O’Brien will be hoping his main horse not called Australia will be capable of seeing off a horse beaten seven lengths by True Story. Early betting has Geoffrey Chaucer as 6/4 fav with Obliterator joint second best on 3/1 with the Dermot Weld colt Fascinating Rock, who is 2/2 this year.

    If Obliterator wins on Sunday it will be bye bye for Geoffrey Chaucer and 3/1 True Story for Epsom. If Geoffrey Chaucer wins well with Obliterator way back then O’Brien’s colt will probably be jt 2nd fav for Epsom.

    Moving on to the Dante meeting we may see John Gosden’s Western Hymn if the ground is suitable. One thing is sure and that is that an impressive winner of the Dante will probably be in the mix of about three or four horses who will be heading the Derby betting and a scramble for a decent each way bet will commence.

    An interesting week ahead and the Derby picture should be a lot more clearly defined this time next week.

    Happy punting and enjoy the racing.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #478485
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
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    Has there been any news about Western Hym?
    Not in Dante.

    value is everything
    #478504
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    Has there been any news about Western Hym?
    Not in Dante.

    I haven’t seen another target for Western Hymn. The going is currently good at York but there are persistent showers forecast for the weekend. Monday is given as showery with sunny intervals, so perhaps they don’t think he would get the better ground they say he needs.

    John Gosden is like Goldilocks with the porridge always too hot or too cold and never "just right" :)

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #478512

    andyod
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    I got a lot of negative feedback for opining that Joey O’Brien was just an average jockey and no way entitled to ride instead of Fallon,Murtagh etc.for John Magnier.But I try not to get into the personal life of the jockeys.Many have drink problems,don’t we all? Many have drug problems,no sin,thousand of people smoke.Jockeys take so many risks doing their job they are entitled to a Mulligan now and then.So lets drop the "Mr.Fallon" and remember the struggle they make to get back in the saddle.

    #478534
    Gingertipster
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    Has there been any news about Western Hym?
    Not in Dante.

    I haven’t seen another target for Western Hymn. The going is currently good at York but there are persistent showers forecast for the weekend. Monday is given as showery with sunny intervals, so perhaps they don’t think he would get the better ground they say he needs.

    John Gosden is like Goldilocks with the porridge always too hot or too cold and never "just right" :)

    From what I remember, Western Hymn showed a round action at Newbury. Should be suited by a soft surface and if anything, unsuited by a firm surface. :?

    value is everything
    #478567
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    Has there been any news about Western Hym?
    Not in Dante.

    I haven’t seen another target for Western Hymn. The going is currently good at York but there are persistent showers forecast for the weekend. Monday is given as showery with sunny intervals, so perhaps they don’t think he would get the better ground they say he needs.

    John Gosden is like Goldilocks with the porridge always too hot or too cold and never "just right" :)

    From what I remember, Western Hymn showed a round action at Newbury. Should be suited by a soft surface and if anything, unsuited by a firm surface. :?

    Both John Gosden and William Buick have said they believe that Western Hymn has a real turn of foot and that he could not show that asset on the soft ground last time.

    True Story is the early 5/4 favourite for The Dante with Kingston Hill 4/1. I suppose those odds would have seemed crazy a couple of months ago when Kingston was the apple of many an eye and True Story was just another promising Godolphin horse.

    Richard Hannon fans can back Bunker at 7/1 for the Dante as they send him into the dizzy heights of middle distance territory.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #478568
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    I got a lot of negative feedback for opining that Joey O’Brien was just an average jockey and no way entitled to ride instead of Fallon,Murtagh etc.for John Magnier.But I try not to get into the personal life of the jockeys.Many have drink problems,don’t we all? Many have drug problems,no sin,thousand of people smoke.Jockeys take so many risks doing their job they are entitled to a Mulligan now and then.So lets drop the "Mr.Fallon" and remember the struggle they make to get back in the saddle.[/quote

    I am not on first name terms with jockeys and it is hardly a problem calling him "Mr Fallon". You have patronisingly called Joseph O’Brien Joey in your post and then referred to the others only by their surnames.

    If you knew the history of the way jockeys used to be treated by stewards you would know that they were referred to only by the surname, Eddery, Carson, Piggott etc by the stewards in a manner very much suggesting inferiority, and the jockeys hated it.

    In John Francome’s autobiography Born Lucky he recounts being summoned by a steward referring to him as "Francome", and he had had enough of it and demanded that he be called either Mr Francome or John. There was a tense stand off before the steward relented and called him John.

    It’s best not to get shirty with people on forums andy, as you will soon find all you get is your own thoughts sitting in a thread with only tumbleweed blowing through for company.

    Yours in sport, Mr Caution. Though the stewards now have to call me David :D

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

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