2000 Guineas 2017

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This topic contains 376 replies, has 47 voices, and was last updated by stevecaution stevecaution 4 months, 4 weeks ago.

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  • #1297570

    stilvi
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    • Total Posts 4593

    Nice to see Eminent being aimed at this with a likely prep in the Craven. Hope he gets there as backed him the day he won his maiden.

    Nice to have an ante post to really look forward to. Thought he was good today.

    That’s a great voucher to have. Sadly I pencilled the horse in as a Dante/Derby prospect based on his debut. I just had a nag that one or two would have more toe at Newmarket.

    Surely that is still the percentage call? If a once-raced maiden winner can take three lengths out of him then it wouldn’t be any surprise if something else can. Hard to believe they will all be non-stayers in the Classic.

    #1297623

    greenasgrass
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    • Total Posts 747

    Heeding judge’s thoughts on the Greenham thread, I’ve added Dream Castle 20-1 E/W

    #1297630
    thejudge1
    thejudge1
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    • Total Posts 2087

    Heeding judge’s thoughts on the Greenham thread, I’ve added Dream Castle 20-1 E/W

    :good: As I said on there he compares very favourably with Benbatl on a sectionals comparison on their wins at Doncaster.

    On the subject of sectionals, as far as Eminent is concerned, he covered the final three furlongs of his Craven win in approx 35.5 seconds which is pretty good considering the fast early pace. Daban for example ran the same distance in approx 35.7, which considering she was running over a furlong shorter and they were running off a pedestrian early gallop, would rather cast a cloud over the nell gywn form.

    Churchill ran the final three furlongs of his Dewhurst win in 34.7, and although that was over 7 furlongs and at a different meeting, that would rather suggest he is somewhat ahead of Eminent at this stage given that the ground yesterday seemed very quick.

    Although I must admit I’m a complete amateur at this speed ratings lark so I would never take my word as gospel 😉

    • This reply was modified 7 months, 3 weeks ago by thejudge1 thejudge1.
    #1297636
    stevecaution
    stevecaution
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    • Total Posts 7116

    Paddy Power have pushed Caravaggio out to 16/1 for the 2000 Guineas. Surely they know something?

    What's all the fuss about Estimate on the Racing Legends Stamps?

    There's always been a second rate Mare on them anyway 😉

    #1297665
    Triptych
    Triptych
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    • Total Posts 6087

    No surprise that I’m even more hopeful now that Eminent will become the first Craven/Guineas winner since Haafhd in 2004. What more does this young son of Frankel have to prove, he handles the course, he’s won twice over the distance and he virtually ended up in Cambridgeshire before he pulled up after winning The Craven. He has so much more to offer and is an exciting prospect for Martyn Meade.

    I can’t believe that I have 40/1 and 33/1 for him each way in The Guineas, the last time I had a speculative AP bet was on Dawn Approach the 2013 Guineas winner, but what I would love to see is Eminent fulfilling his potential and winning the Guineas for a local yard and in the memory of Sir Henry Cecil who I’m sure was smiling down yesterday on his favourite son’s son. :heart:

    Hoping he will improve even more…
    EMINENT – Win

    Good luck to all
    Jac

    Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...
    #1297670
    Triptych
    Triptych
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    • Total Posts 6087

    Nice to see Eminent being aimed at this with a likely prep in the Craven. Hope he gets there as backed him the day he won his maiden.

    Nice to have an ante post to really look forward to. Thought he was good today.

    Good luck with your ante post bet plecornu, you obviously saw that raw potential when Eminent won his Maiden at Newmarket last September and after yesterdays win he looks like he is going places, hopefully winning the Guineas and a possible tilt at The Derby. :rose: Jac

    Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...
    #1297765
    Nathan Hughes
    Nathan Hughes
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    • Total Posts 17437

    Paddy Power have pushed Caravaggio out to 16/1 for the 2000 Guineas. Surely they know something?

    I saw a quote about a week ago with O’Brien saying the horse is being trained with the French guineas as the main target as he’s not confident the horse would get the mile at Newmarket as things stand.

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #1298030
    CharlesOlney
    CharlesOlney
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    • Total Posts 1334

    Two at odds to look at potentially lining up are Barney Roy 33/1 and Cape Byron 40/1. Both well bred types to do well at the trip and powered away to win their maidens at the back end of last year and it will be interesting to see where they start off their campaigns.

    Very much happier with my ante-post book now but in hindsight I should of placed each-way bets at the prices but I very rarely do bet that way months/weeks in advance and often come unstuck – the worst one being a win bet on Somersby at 80/1 for the Champion Chase when he finished 2nd behind Dodging Bullets.

    I’m intrigued as to how many ante-post bets are, on average, each-way?

    #1298034
    thejudge1
    thejudge1
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    • Total Posts 2087

    Don’t think betting each-way or win only makes that much difference over a long period of time. With each-way you end up shelling out more or winning less.

    33-1 Barney is excellent.

    #1298045
    stevecaution
    stevecaution
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    • Total Posts 7116

    Churchill has hit 2/1.

    Anyone concerned?

    What's all the fuss about Estimate on the Racing Legends Stamps?

    There's always been a second rate Mare on them anyway 😉

    #1298054

    ham
    Participant
    • Total Posts 834

    Churchill has hit 2/1.

    Anyone concerned?

    They have to drift him due to how the results have panned out over the last 5 days

    Eminents dominant display
    The godolphin horses runnning so well
    A flood of money for al wukair over the last fortnight

    As we know churchill isnt having a prep which naturally will mean he will see little antepost money as most people impulse back something as soon as it shows a level of form

    Wether that level of form is is good enough or not is irrelevant, thats why the drift

    Over the last week churchill has seen around 5% of antepost bets whereas the likes of al wukair,eminent,barney roy have seen around 90% of the antepost money

    Have to balance the book now by taking money for churchill

    As soon as obrien decides to say churchill is glowing or provides any confidence, the money will come.

    Eminents frankel factor will be playing a huge part in this.

    #1298062
    admin
    admin
    Keymaster
    • Total Posts 537

    Obviously none of us can know about what might or might not be happening at Ballydoyle so hopefully the drift is just a reaction to some firm candidates emerging among the opposition. I think they all still have an awful lot more to do to get anywhere near Churchill and 2/1 looks a very big price.

    #1298122

    LD73
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    • Total Posts 708

    Stevecaution – Please accept my apologies as I have just mistakenly clicked on the report link for your above post rather than the quote link, I am not sure what happens next or how this can be undone as this is the first time this has happened to me but I thought it best to let you know. Once again please accept my apologies for this.

    What I was intending to say is that I agree with your Dewhurst assessment especially given the wrong tactics used with Rivet and Seven Heavens being pretty much unrideable yet they were only beaten 3L & 5L respectively.

    • This reply was modified 7 months, 3 weeks ago by  LD73.
    #1298143

    mickeyjp
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    • Total Posts 507

    Obviously none of us can know about what might or might not be happening at Ballydoyle so hopefully the drift is just a reaction to some firm candidates emerging among the opposition. I think they all still have an awful lot more to do to get anywhere near Churchill and 2/1 looks a very big price.

    [/quote :whistle: ]

    Agree entirely. None of the trials form amounted to what Churchill has done and beating rivet by just over a length isn’t guineas winning form. Barney Roy looked so reminiscent of his dad but it’s very hard to evaluate the form. As is the way with ballydoyle when they have the guineas favourite we don’t see them till Newmarket so it’s all guesswork. I’d love to see barney Roy win as I was a huge fan of his dad but suspect Churchill will do just enough to win and then should Caravaggio win the French guineas or order of the garter the Irish version we might just see Churchill at epsom. Not long to find out if Churchill has trained on.

    • This reply was modified 7 months, 3 weeks ago by  mickeyjp.
    #1298154
    thejudge1
    thejudge1
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    • Total Posts 2087

    Interesting piece about the classic trials: https://www.timeform.com/horse-racing/features/sectionals/sectional-debrief-craven-newmarket-and-greenham-newbury-meetings-2342017

    according to the author both Eminent and Barney Roy are underestimated by the market and have already run quick enough to win most 2000 guineas.

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