1000 Guineas 2018

Home Forums Big Races – Discussion 1000 Guineas 2018

This topic contains 117 replies, has 21 voices, and was last updated by Gingertipster Gingertipster 2 weeks ago.

Viewing 15 posts - 16 through 30 (of 119 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #1310184
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 21723

    I backed Alpha Centauri a long time ago.

    I don’t like taking 8/1 at this stage for any horse. Too much can happen to make that a poor price in my opinion.

    Magical is running at the Curragh tomorrow and the full sister to Rhododendron could be anything.

    Historically speaking, time will start to run out to see future Guineas winners making their debuts but there is some time yet and there will be French fillies coming out of the woodwork soon. Plenty people felt Rhododendron was the business last season but Winter came out of nowhere to spoil the party.

    I wouldn’t take less than about 16/1 at this stage but if people want to take shorter then that’s their business. I pick my own selections, quite often long before anyone else.

    Surely it depends on what that horse has shown to know what price you’d take, Stevie? Sometimes what a horse shows makes him/her a good price at 8/1 – punters don’t need to believe the 8/1 shot will win, only that it has a better than an 11% chance of winning. I’d estimate Clemmie a 15% (fair 11/2) at this stage (which makes her an 85% chance of not winning) So of course a Winter might come out of the woodwork and beat her on the day, in fact it’s probable.

    It is possible to judge a horse’s form and potential in July as value @ 8/1. Yes, there are several horses yet to make their debuts, but all a punter has to do is judge the horse against the average Guineas winner of the recent past. ie I may not know the names of Clemmie’s rivals yet to appear, but I know what their quality is (in all probability) likely to be.

    value is everything
    #1310185
    stevecaution
    stevecaution
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6924

    I don’t back them at single figure odds ante-post at this stage of the season. That’s it, end of.

    Others are free to do as they feel appropriate. We will find out who was right next May.

    What's all the fuss about Estimate on the Racing Legends Stamps?

    There's always been a second rate Mare on them anyway 😉

    #1310189
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 21723

    Evidently she is very good. Perhaps like her brother she failed to act on the firm ground at Ascot? Ryan Moore went as far to say she is the best filly they’ve seen out this year, a bit of an indictment against September. It will be interesting to see how both these fillies progress, at the moment it looks as if Clemmie will be the Guineas horse, and September for the Oaks.

    I know there was a tail wind today, Voleur; but even so – beating the track record suggests it’s firmed up overnight. Of what I saw of Clemmie’s action she should be effective on a firm surface. I agree September looks the Oaks filly.

    Maybe so but it was in no way comparable to the ground at Royal Ascot, you could see them kicking up the dirt at Newmarket with the bare eye. As you said yourself some horses act on Good to Firm but not Firm, I fail to see another reason for her disappointing effort in the Albany.

    It was only the Tuesday of Royal Ascot where imo the ground was firm, Voleur. Take a look at the times compared to Racing Post Standard in all five days. Watering made the going good-firm Wednesday onwards. Allowing for yesterday’s tail wind I believe the Albany and Cherry Hinton were run on similar good-firm.

    O’Brien takes his time with his two year olds, majority cabbage-like on debut and he has a very poor first time out strike rate. At the time, I thought Clemmie lacked pace in the Albany; but where as some O’Brien two year olds come on a lot second time, several have again run green and again needed the run. I believe Clemmie didn’t learn enough from her first start. We also do not know how the trip over from Ireland affected her so early in a career. She now knows more about the game. Able to show a lot more speed than less than a month ago. It’s also interesting Clemmie has now had four starts, the only time not tongue tied was at Ascot or may be she just doesn’t like Ascot. So imo there are good reasons for the Albany failure. Race to ignore, at least until she returns for her Coronation. 😉

    value is everything
    #1310534
    Middle_Of_March
    Middle_Of_March
    Participant
    • Total Posts 869

    Must admit i know nothing about breeding but i do not think September will be an Oaks Filly. Surely she shows too much speed. Quite tempted by that 33’s Conquest for the Oaks who ran the other night, she looks more like one for longer distances next year.

    To me, she looks the most obvious Oaks runner of 2018 we’ve seen so far.

    Everything points to her being better over further. As I said earlier in the thread, I’ve played the 6/1 for this as a small bet but more as insurance in case she doesn’t go to the oaks. But that would stun me tbh. Wouldn’t surprise me if she won both.

    But the 25s available before the Chesham for the oaks is already looking huge now :good:

    #1310539
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 21723

    I don’t back them at single figure odds ante-post at this stage of the season. That’s it, end of.

    Others are free to do as they feel appropriate. We will find out who was right next May.

    How will we “find out who was right next May”?
    At the time of my bet I believe Clemmie has a 15% chance of winning the 1000 Guineas.
    That means I believe she has an 85% chance of losing (almost 7 times as likely to lose than win).
    Does that mean if Clemmie loses I will be proven right, Steve? :unsure:

    value is everything
    #1310668
    stevecaution
    stevecaution
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6924

    I don’t back them at single figure odds ante-post at this stage of the season. That’s it, end of.

    Others are free to do as they feel appropriate. We will find out who was right next May.

    How will we “find out who was right next May”?
    At the time of my bet I believe Clemmie has a 15% chance of winning the 1000 Guineas.
    That means I believe she has an 85% chance of losing (almost 7 times as likely to lose than win).
    Does that mean if Clemmie loses I will be proven right, Steve? :unsure:

    Tedious.

    What's all the fuss about Estimate on the Racing Legends Stamps?

    There's always been a second rate Mare on them anyway 😉

    #1310817
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 21723

    I don’t back them at single figure odds ante-post at this stage of the season. That’s it, end of.

    Others are free to do as they feel appropriate. We will find out who was right next May.

    How will we “find out who was right next May”?
    At the time of my bet I believe Clemmie has a 15% chance of winning the 1000 Guineas.
    That means I believe she has an 85% chance of losing (almost 7 times as likely to lose than win).
    Does that mean if Clemmie loses I will be proven right, Steve? :unsure:

    Tedious.

    :scratch:

    value is everything
    #1311472

    darren83
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3978

    HAPPILY 33/1

    My bet here she was clueless on debut behind September but won maiden very well being related to Marvellous and Gleneagles can see her more of a miler than other stablemates.While AOB has strong batch of 2yo fillys take a chance on her be best next year.Hope she win well tonight.

    #1311524
    botchy1
    botchy1
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1463

    HAPPILY 33/1

    My bet here she was clueless on debut behind September but won maiden very well being related to Marvellous and Gleneagles can see her more of a miler than other stablemates.While AOB has strong batch of 2yo fillys take a chance on her be best next year.Hope she win well tonight.

    Your on your way mate :good:

    #1312089
    Nathan Hughes
    Nathan Hughes
    Participant
    • Total Posts 17111

    What’s your thoughts on Nyaleti, guys……?

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #1312126

    ham
    Participant
    • Total Posts 523

    Top drawer, but wont beat either ballydoyle horse

    #1312418
    Middle_Of_March
    Middle_Of_March
    Participant
    • Total Posts 869

    What’s your thoughts on Nyaleti, guys……?

    Why anyone would back her at 25s over September at 6/1 when September beat her comfortably despite looking green is a strange one to me.

    #1312670
    Nathan Hughes
    Nathan Hughes
    Participant
    • Total Posts 17111

    I’m happy with Clemmie 33’s and 66’s Irish Guineas double, to my untrained eye she will be an out and out miler whereas September looks more an Oaks Fillie. Aidan tends to take in the 1000 on route so hopefully they both turn up but I’d take Clemmie over the mile. Just my opinion, good luck with her MOM. Btw I agree about Nyaleti, I don’t think she’ll even run in the guineas and if she does and wins I’ll leave the forum and never return.

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #1312674
    botchy1
    botchy1
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1463

    Btw I agree about Nyaleti, I don’t think she’ll even run in the guineas and if she does and wins I’ll leave the forum and never return.

    Looks like we are stuck with you then Nathan :rose:

    #1312707
    Middle_Of_March
    Middle_Of_March
    Participant
    • Total Posts 869

    I’m happy with Clemmie 33’s and 66’s Irish Guineas double, to my untrained eye she will be an out and out miler whereas September looks more an Oaks Fillie. Aidan tends to take in the 1000 on route so hopefully they both turn up but I’d take Clemmie over the mile. Just my opinion, good luck with her MOM. Btw I agree about Nyaleti, I don’t think she’ll even run in the guineas and if she does and wins I’ll leave the forum and never return.

    Cheers Nath

    I’m really hopeful she’s a superstar

Viewing 15 posts - 16 through 30 (of 119 total)

You must be logged in to reply to this topic.