April 15, 2018 at 20:09 #1350670
- Total Posts 235
Steve, what’s your take on Liquid Amber?
Quite unexposed and as big as 40s in Skybet, not impressed with any of the top at the market (supposing that Clemmie might not run)April 15, 2018 at 20:17 #1350673
- Total Posts 235
By the way, Clemmie is as big as 20s in the exchanges, not looking goodApril 15, 2018 at 21:22 #1350681
- Total Posts 281
What a catastrophe!
Maybe it’s still possible that she can run, but we must also be prepared to say good bye to our bets.
This is really hard to digest, or in other words:
I can’t eat as much as I’d like to vomitApril 15, 2018 at 22:22 #1350685
I did Liquid Amber for the Oaks Viktors. She started off at a mile last August and when 2YO’s tackle a mile first time out at that stage of the season I always look at them as needing more than a mile at 3YO.
Liquid Amber’s first start was reasonable but no more than that really. It’s a race that hasn’t worked out great and Liquid Amber earned a of 82 for finishing 2nd, some three and a bit lengths behind the winner.
It was just 8 days after her maiden runner-up run that Liquid Amber jumped to Group 3 class and was 10/1 against Ballet Shoes, the 2/7 Fav who was regarded as a shoo-in by many. I was impressed with the way Liquid Amber dismantled the odds-on favourite and she finished very strongly to pull away and win by five lengths.
The Racing Post upped her rating to 108, a rise of 26 lbs in eight days!
After the race the trainer declared she would probably not be seen again that season, as they were in no hurry with her. The Irish 1000 Guineas was nominated as her early target at that time and she holds entries for that race, the Newmarket Guineas and both Epsom and Irish Oaks.
I never heard anything about her over the winter and with just three weeks to the Newmarket Guineas it’s going to be tough to get a race in beforehand and a big ask to be competitive going straight there.
It wasn’t until the final furlong in the Flame Of Tara race that Liquid Amber really started to take control and she stayed on strongly to pull 5 lengths clear. She hit the win line full of running and looked like she would have won further if the race was longer.
I can’t see them rushing her for our Guineas and the Irish version three weeks later looks more likely. If she does run in the Irish Guineas, my Oaks bet will be up the swannie, because the Epsom race is only five days after the Irish 1000 Guineas. Hard to imagine anything running on Sunday AND the following Friday.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.April 16, 2018 at 02:51 #1350700
- Total Posts 281
Perhaps O’Brien was talking too much too soon, if you know what I mean!
At least I keep on believing in her chances to run, and maybe we will see some more optimistic comments from the “maestro” (I never thought he was) soon!
He should work his butt off to get her fit again for the race, this would be my wish and focus !April 16, 2018 at 08:32 #1350708
- Total Posts 693
I would forget all about Clemie for the 1000G, if she wins now from what sounds like a bad preparation, she’s a superstar….Considering the fact Aidan’s runners without a prep don’t often win, one without a prep run and setback?
An early season target can be forgotten about there’s plenty of racing for her to take in between now and the end of the season.
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!April 16, 2018 at 12:37 #1350734
- Total Posts 1422
Veracious not in line up for Nell GwynApril 16, 2018 at 13:13 #1350739
I’m gutted about Clemmie too Hein I was in a very good position on her but it comes with the territory
it’s the natural of the beast of the Ante Post betting vouchers and you have to move on quickly, you need a cast iron stomach for sure
Altior’s win in the QMCC has softened the blow somewhat, if he had not ran or not won I’d be pulling my hair out
You win some, you lose some moreDon't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*nApril 16, 2018 at 14:06 #1350746
Veracious not in line up for Nell Gwyn
I was looking at the entries for the Nell Gwyn and pondering any value available. I noticed that several entries were jocked up but Veracious wasn’t one of them. That always concerns me slightly so I decided not to get involved.
From the La Grotte race at the weekend the horse I took out of it as one who would do a lot better next time was O’Brien’s Magical. I felt she ran a belter and winner Musis Amica only asserted late in the race. Magical will surely come on plenty for that effort on testing ground and I think she’s a player, underestimated at 25/1 now.
At times last season Magical looked O’Brien’s best filly and if looking for value right now I would give her a whirl in the hope of better ground at Newmarket and a chance of a 25/1 payday.
Wind Chimes was poor in the La Grotte. I expected a much better effort than that. Fabre has done it before with Miss France, who was only 6th when favourite for the trial race, the Prix Imprudence, but bounced back to win the Newmarket Guineas. I can’t see that trick repeated with Wind Chimes though.
Veracious isn’t entered in what was the Fred Darling at Newbury and it’s looking bad for her hopes if she doesn’t take in a trial. They are falling by the wayside really and it’s another reason to be considering Magical for a bit of value at 25/1 I feel.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.April 16, 2018 at 15:30 #1350757
- Total Posts 1422
i’m hoping the ground firms up a bit and they let September take her chance, she may not be the biggest but she is proven on track and distance. Could well be faster fillies in the race but fingers crossed for once I get one to postApril 16, 2018 at 20:39 #1350782
“She’s in full work at the moment, but it’s probably going to come a bit too quick for her.”
Yesterday she was only back walking and today she is in full workDon't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*nApril 16, 2018 at 21:19 #1350785
That statement seems to make no sense Nathan. It seems a lame excuse that the race comes too quickly.
Do you think there is any suggestion that she hasn’t trained on as well as they had hoped?
Bizarrely,the Sporting Life headline read that Clemmie may miss the 2000 Guineas. On that front O’Brien stated:-
“We have another couple of weeks to go, but he (Saxon Warrior) is progressing along lovely.
“We never thought he was short of pace.”
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.April 16, 2018 at 21:26 #1350788
Possibly Steve, what did you make of the supposedly comments saying her brother Churchill stayed the mile but only just, that doesn’t make sense either because they upped him in trip to 10f. Maybe it’s dodgy journalism and they were talking about Meow. Things don’t add up to me.Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*nApril 16, 2018 at 22:02 #1350792
- Total Posts 1606
38s was worth the risk, allbeit, pocket change only..April 16, 2018 at 22:29 #1350794
I think perhaps it was a move of desperation trying Churchill at 10F. He landed the Newmarket Guineas but the Racing Post figure for that race was only 1 lb higher than his run in the Dewhurst the previous season. His official rating never changed for his Newmarket win and only went up 1 lb for landing the Irish Guineas.
Defeat behind Barney Roy in the St James Palace stakes, when the Racing Post had him running to 111, perhaps tipped the scales in feeling that the colt was probably exposed at a mile and that they may need to step him up in search of improvement over further.
Whatever the thinking Churchill never won another race, meaning that his final career success had occurred in May, arguably peaking at just 2 lbs higher than his 2YO best.
Maybe that’s the reason that they are advertising Churchill at stud with the spurious stat of the colt who won the Dewhurst in a faster time than Frankel. Well that’s him guaranteed to be better than Frankel at stud then
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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