1000 Guineas 2018

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This topic contains 119 replies, has 22 voices, and was last updated by  nwalton 1 month, 1 week ago.

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  • #1307443
    Nathan Hughes
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    Early days but I like Clemmie for this, debut run was visually impressive, only just beat but made up a good bit of ground. Albany the going at the distance was too quick for her as I believe despite today’s win she’d be better over 7f this season and 1 mile next. I took 33’s after debut and topped up 20’s after today. September looks a potential superstar but maybe more of an Oaks horse next year although O’Brien’s tend to take in the guineas aswell a few question marks over her training on being small and less room for improvement if she is a early type, I’m not sure about that myself but prefer her for the Oaks at the current prices.

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #1307447
    botchy1
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    Early days but I like Clemmie for this, debut run was visually impressive, only just beat but made up a good bit of ground. Albany the going at the distance was too quick for her as I believe despite today’s win she’d be better over 7f this season and 1 mile next. I took 33’s after debut and topped up 20’s after today. September looks a potential superstar but maybe more of an Oaks horse next year although O’Brien’s tend to take in the guineas aswell a few question marks over her training on being small and less room for improvement if she is a early type, I’m not sure about that myself but prefer her for the Oaks at the current prices.

    Great minds think alike Nathan. Also backed her at 33’s after her debut and topped up today @ 20’s on Clemmie.

    September looks some Filly mind you, but i’m more in the Guineas camp than the Oaks camp though. The speed she showed in her debut was unreal. At Ascot Ryan never hit her once during the whole race, and she just missed out on the juvenile course record by 0.15 secs.

    Two stars to look forward to for sure, and it’s going to take a very good horse to beat either of them i think ( hope ) :heart:

    #1307448
    Middle_Of_March
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    I’m on at 25s for the oaks for September but have a little bit at 6/1 for this as well.

    Think she will be a superstar

    #1307449
    viktors89
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    Not a fan of Clemmie so far.
    At this point in time the two horses that impressed me most are the 1/2 in the Albany, so I would go with either of them (in the case that September doesn’t run in this, and that’s a big if)

    #1307475
    Nathan Hughes
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    I’m happy to write off the Albany as far as Clemmie is concerned against speedier sorts the going was that quick it would have felt like a 5f race.
    I think the original plan was to run her in the Chesham but then September bolted up on debut and looking more a future stayer they went September for the Chesham…?

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #1309926
    Nathan Hughes
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    So much for Aiden stepping Clemmie up in trip as she runs again at 6f in the race Roly Poly won last year. It should be informative though as in opposition is Nyaleti who was 2nd to September in the Chesham over 7f Nyaleti blasted off that day and kept going before being run down and 6f should suit that horse which will mean if Clemmie can win today I think will make her very good.

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #1309963
    Voleur
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    So much for Aiden stepping Clemmie up in trip as she runs again at 6f in the race Roly Poly won last year. It should be informative though as in opposition is Nyaleti who was 2nd to September in the Chesham over 7f Nyaleti blasted off that day and kept going before being run down and 6f should suit that horse which will mean if Clemmie can win today I think will make her very good.

    Evidently she is very good. Perhaps like her brother she failed to act on the firm ground at Ascot? Ryan Moore went as far to say she is the best filly they’ve seen out this year, a bit of an indictment against September. It will be interesting to see how both these fillies progress, at the moment it looks as if Clemmie will be the Guineas horse, and September for the Oaks.

    #1309964
    Gingertipster
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    Am envious Nathan.
    Clemmie showed more speed than I was expecting today over 6f and will do better at 7f and a mile next year. Has more speed and is bigger and has more scope for improvement than September. Sister to Churchill.
    I think the 10/1 or even 8/1 is good value now.

    value is everything
    #1309965
    stevecaution
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    I backed Nyaleti today, going against my normal policy of not backing Mark Johnston runners full stop. I should have known what would happen.

    That race looked a match to me today and fans of September would have been looking for her form to be upheld. With Clemmie winning today, she is now as low as 7/1 for the Guineas and for me that is silly.

    September is also a silly price at 5/1, if for no other reason than that she has a similarly rated filly right alongside her in the betting now.

    I couldn’t bring myself to back either of the fillies at such ridiculous odds but well done to those with big prices on those fillies. I still feel Alpha Centauri is the value at 20/1 but the punters are like lemmings and will take 5/1 when they wouldn’t have taken double the odds before the money started coming. It was the same with Brazil in the World Cup some years ago, when the shorter the bookies made them for the tournament, the more people wanted to back them and hence missed the value odds.

    What's all the fuss about Estimate on the Racing Legends Stamps?

    There's always been a second rate Mare on them anyway 😉

    #1309966
    Gingertipster
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    Evidently she is very good. Perhaps like her brother she failed to act on the firm ground at Ascot? Ryan Moore went as far to say she is the best filly they’ve seen out this year, a bit of an indictment against September. It will be interesting to see how both these fillies progress, at the moment it looks as if Clemmie will be the Guineas horse, and September for the Oaks.

    I know there was a tail wind today, Voleur; but even so – beating the track record suggests it’s firmed up overnight. Of what I saw of Clemmie’s action she should be effective on a firm surface. I agree September looks the Oaks filly.

    value is everything
    #1309981
    Gingertipster
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    I backed Nyaleti today, going against my normal policy of not backing Mark Johnston runners full stop. I should have known what would happen.

    That race looked a match to me today and fans of September would have been looking for her form to be upheld. With Clemmie winning today, she is now as low as 7/1 for the Guineas and for me that is silly.

    September is also a silly price at 5/1, if for no other reason than that she has a similarly rated filly right alongside her in the betting now.

    I couldn’t bring myself to back either of the fillies at such ridiculous odds but well done to those with big prices on those fillies. I still feel Alpha Centauri is the value at 20/1 but the punters are like lemmings and will take 5/1 when they wouldn’t have taken double the odds before the money started coming. It was the same with Brazil in the World Cup some years ago, when the shorter the bookies made them for the tournament, the more people wanted to back them and hence missed the value odds.

    Unlike some punters, What others have backed and at what price doesn’t alter what price I am willing to take – envy won’t stop me backing someting if I think the price now available is value. Don’t think anyone on here takes a price just because the horse has shortened. :unsure:

    Clemmie showed far more speed today than she has previously and won with imo plenty in hand – more than the winning margin. Nice type physically too (unlike the now 1000 favourite September). Wish I had the big prices others have got, but I sadly couldn’t see enough in Clemmie’s earlier runs to take the then 33/1 or even 20/1 (well done those that did). Can’t back a horse solely on breeding and trainer. I’m no “lemming” Stevie boy, it’s only that from what I NOW know about the horse enables me to believe she’s good value @ 10 or 8/1. Hope you didn’t back Wuheida today just because others were?

    We agree on Alpha Centauri. I’ve taken the 20/1 and suggest you do the same – go on Stevie, you know you want to follow the “lemming”. 😉

    value is everything
    #1310101
    botchy1
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    Must admit i know nothing about breeding but i do not think September will be an Oaks Filly. Surely she shows too much speed. Quite tempted by that 33’s Conquest for the Oaks who ran the other night, she looks more like one for longer distances next year.

    #1310135
    stevecaution
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    I backed Alpha Centauri a long time ago.

    I don’t like taking 8/1 at this stage for any horse. Too much can happen to make that a poor price in my opinion.

    Magical is running at the Curragh tomorrow and the full sister to Rhododendron could be anything.

    Historically speaking, time will start to run out to see future Guineas winners making their debuts but there is some time yet and there will be French fillies coming out of the woodwork soon. Plenty people felt Rhododendron was the business last season but Winter came out of nowhere to spoil the party.

    I wouldn’t take less than about 16/1 at this stage but if people want to take shorter then that’s their business. I pick my own selections, quite often long before anyone else.

    What's all the fuss about Estimate on the Racing Legends Stamps?

    There's always been a second rate Mare on them anyway 😉

    #1310164

    Sunspangled
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    Alpha Centauri hasn’t been entered for the Debutante Stakes, which is surprising as it’s the usual prep for the Moyglare Stakes.

    • This reply was modified 5 months ago by  Sunspangled.
    #1310171
    Voleur
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    Evidently she is very good. Perhaps like her brother she failed to act on the firm ground at Ascot? Ryan Moore went as far to say she is the best filly they’ve seen out this year, a bit of an indictment against September. It will be interesting to see how both these fillies progress, at the moment it looks as if Clemmie will be the Guineas horse, and September for the Oaks.

    I know there was a tail wind today, Voleur; but even so – beating the track record suggests it’s firmed up overnight. Of what I saw of Clemmie’s action she should be effective on a firm surface. I agree September looks the Oaks filly.

    Maybe so but it was in no way comparable to the ground at Royal Ascot, you could see them kicking up the dirt at Newmarket with the bare eye. As you said yourself some horses act on Good to Firm but not Firm, I fail to see another reason for her disappointing effort in the Albany.

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